Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

You will have no trouble finding stats for the Gold Cup.

Below however are some of my own extracted from my 50 page
Cheltenham stats document. Use them to supplement your own
study of the race or even better perhaps, save your brain
cells and read my own final interpretation of this race on
race day as a client.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

We did well in this race year using the excessive media hype
around the the Kauto Star Long Run battle to pick of value
odds on Synchronised. See a copy of our reasoning at this
link    Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Stats

Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

 

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts

* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009

* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases

* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled

* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-88 record

* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse

* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.

* They’ve won 17 of the last 19 Cheltenham Gold Cups.

* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record

* Horses aged 10 have a 1-93 record since 1992

* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969

* All 38 that ran in the last 18 years lost.

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.

* I wouldn’t’t want a horse with fewer runs that season

* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine

* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.

* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.

* 12 of the last 15 winners placed at a previous Festival.

* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

* The only exception was 2011 winner 5th in a Grade 1

* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.

* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race

* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best

* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best

* Every winner since 1992 had managed that

* A Novice has not won the Gold Cup since 1974

* Two recent winners came from Handicaps

* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before

* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

 

 

Service News

Cheltenham betting action has started already with a long
odds ante post tip advised to clients this morning. Ante Post
betting before the start of the Festival is safer these days
with an abundance of non runner no bet offers.

We are playing in the 2.40 on Tuesday – The JLT Specialty
Handicap Chase

This was yet another good race for us in 2012 with advised
bet ALFIE SHERRIN winning nicely for us. ALFIE SHERRIN was
available at 20/1 at bookmakers for hours after we tipped
him and probably even greater odds were available on Betfair
.

We said at the time:

* ALFIE SHERRIN is very interesting

* Go back to the 2010 Cheltenham Festival

* He was a huge gamble starting 11/4 for the Pertemps

* He was Paul Nicholls trained then moved to Jonjo

* Had his quirks – been hard to train – but has some positives

* ALFIE SHERRIN is rated 147 over hurdles

* Today over fences he is rated 129

* The first thing we know is he is very well treated

* The next thing we know are his connections

* JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neill

* We know we can put a line through several runs

* There is every chance he has been saved for this race

* I opposed him in the Midlands Grand National

* He was too inexperienced and after than he was unreadable

* Switched between Hurdles and Chases and different distances

* I think he is being conditioned to win a good race

* His jumping may not be as safe as I’d like

* Not sure how robust or reliable he is

* I watched both his last two races though

* Both left me certain he was given quiet rides

* JPMcManus paid £110k for this horse. He wasn’t cheap.

* He should be much happier on this ground

* Not keen he comes from hurdles or out or the handicap

* I do think the good outweighs the bad at 20/1 +

* Tony McCoy can’t do 10st which is why he doesn’t ride

* I see him very much as the Stables Number 1 option

* He could easily fall or go missing without trace

* Equally he is thrown in and this could be his day

 

But who are we on this year?

 

Take the secret cheap deal and find out.

Be sure to pick up today’s message in our member area when
you do.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

These are based on the past thirteen years of Cheltenham Gold Cup runnings.

We go to this level for almost all races we anlaysis whether its a major festival such as Cheltenham or a minor meeting in January. Working harder than others produces an edge.

 

Cheltenham Friday 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-85 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 18 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-90 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 36 that ran in the last 18 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 12 of the last 14 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974
* Two recent winners came from Handicaps
* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

S t r o n g e s t A n g l e s

* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Newmarket

N e w m a r k e t   4.25

7/4 Jet Away, 3/1 Dux Scholar, 9/2 Retrieve
6/1 Slumber, 12/1 Honour System, Dangerous Midge
14/1 Mantoba, 16/1 Classic Punch.

I have never done this race before. Think I know
why as its a race that gets mixed up with a similar
race. Its a 10f Listed race for all aged horses. Not
much I can do here. I have a decent profile I like
so will go with him. Some of these are very hard
to rate. Not sure several are safe with only 1 run
in months. I can’t tell how fit they are and to be
fair there are past winners doing that. Giving up
on profiles that beat me but I do have one decent
profile here and thats my choice DUX SCHOLLAR.

* DUX SCHOLAR has the best profile
* Horses aged 3 coming from a Conditions race
* Running over 8f 9f 10f last time out
* Running within a Month
* Between 7 and 12 career runs
* Between 4 -5 -6 runs that season
* There were 3 horses with that profile
* They finished W W W
* The winners in 1994 2000 2001

Selection DUX SCHOLAR

11/4 in several spots including Paddy Power blue sq bet365 vc

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 29, 2011

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Beverly Horse racing Tip

B e v e r l e y   4.45

7/4 Musnad, 7/2 Cool In The Shade, 7/2 Surely This Time
6/1 American Lover, 14/1 Uddy Mac, 20/1 Boucher Garcon
20/1 Libys Dream, 20/1 Nially Noo, 20/1 Oosisit
33/1 Avon Rising, 66/1 Ingenti, 66/1 La Danse Champetre
66/1 Wing N Prayer, 100/1 Queen´s Princess.

This is a 5f Maiden for all aged horses. Many of these are
outclassed and only half a dozen look options and I would
reduce that to 5 by ignoring UDDY MAC a 4yo filly rated
just 49. Another 4yo filly AMERICAN LOVER leaves me
cold as well. None have won any similar 5f maiden at this
time of year. This race usually goes to a well raced horse.
In all past renewals of this race horses that had 1-2-3 runs
had a miserable 1-92 record. That puts me off an unraced NIALLY NOO.
It also worries me about LIBYS DREAM
as well a filly with 1 race. If you take all 5f maidens like this and l
ook at fillies coming from 6f maidens having 1 career start like LIBYS DREAM
you find a 0-16 record and she is not like any past winners.
Considering this is  a 5f race then MUSNAD dropping from 10f has to give
off serious warning signs. I cant bet MUSNAD from 10f
and feel there are better options. Without a doubt I feel
SURELY THIS TIME and COOL IN THE SHADE have the best profiles by some way.
Both though are drawn in Stalls 1 and 2 and that may not be ideal.
The recent six winners here came from stalls  8 11 10 12 10 9 and the draw does worry me a bit.
I don’t see any sensible other alternatives though and have to commit to these two.

Selection

COOL IN THE SHADE 100/30  Win Bet
SURELY THIS TIME 5/1 Saver Bet

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Grey Horse Handicap

N e w m a r k e t   2.45

11/2 Clear Ice, 6/1 Witchry, 7/1 Time Medicean 8/1 Sutton Veny 10/1 Sarah4s Art, 12/1 Whitechapel, 16/1 Berbice, Den4s Gift 16/1 Emma4s Gift, 16/1 Rylee Mooch, 16/1 Sunshine Always 16/1 Tislaam, 16/1 Zowington, Lady Florence, 20/1 Silver Rime 25/1 Kinigi, 25/1 Quarrel, 33/1 Admirable Duchess, 33/1 Tadalavil.

* This is a race for Grey horses only
* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* There are 265 similar races at this time of year
* SUTTON VENY is a negative as a mare from 5f
* Mares from 5f races won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-41
* SUTTON VENY only has 3 runs this season
* SUTTON VENY looks weak with a career high mark
* ADMIRABLE DUCHESS fails the same statistic
* She is underraced for a mare from 5f and career high mark
* TIME MEDICEAN comes from a 5f race
* He has a months absence doing this which is a worry
* There were winners with that profile
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-49
* TIME MEDICEAN fails that with 4 runs this year
* TIME MEDICEAN won a 5f handicap last time
* No winners did that without a run in 2 weeks
* TIME MEDICEAN doesnt come out that well
* QUARREL – Must be opposed as a seasonal debutant
* WHITECHAPEL only has 1 run this season
* No winners came down in trip with 1 run that year (0-32)
* Well beaten last time WHITECHAPEL looks unsafe
* ZOWINGTON is 9 and absent 60 days
* No horse his age has won absent as long
* SARAH4S ART is 8 and absent 63 days
* He only has 3 runs this season as well
* I think he’s underraced this year with limited backclass
* EMMA4S GIFT is unsafe as a filly from  a Listed race
* Down from 8f no similar profiles won
* LADY FLORENCE didnt run well enough last time
* She will find this trip short of ideal as well
* TADALAVIL looks underraced this year
* I doubt he is in the form to win this
* SILVER RIME is an exposed horse from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* Similar horses aged 6 or more were 4-34
* All 4 winners had at least 6 runs that season
* SILVER RIME only has 4 runs this year
* All 4 winners had no more than 9st 2lbs
* SILVER RIME has 8lbs more weight than any
* SILVER RIME looks unsafe to me statistically
* SILVER RIME has 30 runs but just 1 run at this trip
* He was hammered in that race so he is unproven at 6f
* TISLAAM is an exposed 4yo from 6f
* There are winners doing that but 2 problems
* None carried 8st 8lbs or less and he has 8st 3lbs
* All similar 4yo winners had Class 3 form at least
* TISLAAM has only raced in Class 4 and below
* I do like the recent run and the handicap mark
* Question marks as to whether he’s classy enough
* BERBICE is an exposed 6yo from a 5f race
* I found found a winner like him
* Therefore he is not a negative
* He is on a losing run of 29 though
* Not proven in a big field there are doubts
* I didnt think he offered enough

P o s s i b l e s

* WITCHRY won this race last season
* I thought he was underraced last year but he won
* The race cut up because of rain and only 9 ran last year
* I can’t rule him out after last years win
* Not having had far more runs this season
* WITCHRY doesnt feel safe statistically
* He won last time but he lacks a run in 2 weeks
* No horse won again doing that when older than 6
* WITCHRY is 9 now and thats a concern
* Statistically he is weak and unlike winners
* I said that last year though and he won

* SUNSHINE ALWAYS has a reasonably good profile
* I found a couple of similar 5yo winners like him
* He was 3rd in this race last year finishing fast
* That was his first ever run at this distance
* He would have won in a few more strides
* The issue is has he got the pace to win this 6f race
* Especially in a big field

* CLEAR ICE is an exposed 4yo
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* He has just won 0-74 and 0-79 handicaps
* This is a 0-85 and a little bit tougher
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* I Dont see his chance as better than many
* He has 42 runs and none were on a Grade 1 track
* He was also bought to try and win this race though

* DEN4S GIFT is an exposed 7yo from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* He has a similar profile to Silver Rime
* DEN4S GIFT is just a year older
* He does have more runs this season though
* Thats his crucial advantage over that horse
* DEN4S GIFT is similar to 1 past winner
* DEN4S GIFT has a 0-20 record on turf
* Not worried about that as he has placed many times
* All his wins come at 7f and 8f though
* I wouldnt rule him out but there are doubts
* He will need to be on the right side drawn 20

S e l e c t i o n

KINIGI 25/1
RYLEE MOOCH 16/1

* KINIGI is an exposed mare from 5f
* She has never been out of a Class 4 race before
* Similar horses had a 1-14 record
* That winner was Clearing Sky in this race in 2006
* Clearing Sky had a long absence that day
* KINIGI doesnt but I’d make her a Possible
* I doubt she will win but 33/1 is a fair risk

RYLEE MOOCH 14/1

We have yet to have a 3yo winner of this race but
very few were fancied anyway and there seems no
reason at all why they can’t win. There are 265 of
these 6f Handicaps at this time of year and these
races show horses like RYLEE MOOCH are fine.

* Male horses aged 3
* Coming from 5f races
* Between 13 and 20 career starts
* No form beyond a Class 3 race before
* At least 7 runs that season
* Beaten last time but not by more than 10 lengths
* Not carrying more than 9st 6lbs
* Having won a race before
* Starting shorter than 25/1
* RYLEE MOOCH has this profile
* I ran it and found a 5-8 record

Thats a very good record. Admittedly some were
a few years ago and only 1 of the 5 winners were
in a big field. I would have liked a past winner of
this race his age but as I Said few were fancied and
overall his profile is better than anything else here.

S e l e c t i o ns

RYLEE MOOCH 18/1  Tote betfred
KINIGI 25/1 at many including s james PaddyPower or 38/1 Betfair

Posted under horse racing tips