NEWBURY 3.05

Totesport.com Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

5/6 Paco Boy, 100/30 Zacinto, 14/1 Lord Shanakill
14/1 Ouqba, 14/1 Pipedreamer, 14/1 The Cheka
25/1 Stimulation, 40/1 Prince Of Dance, 66/1 Kargali.

It is Lockinge day at Newbury. Purely on profiles I am
going to oppose the odds on favourite with ZACINTO
in this race. Not sure how realistic that is and he would
not appeal as an account bet with a long absence but it
is interesting that since this race was awarded Group 1
status 15 years ago None of the winners were similar to
the odds on Paco Boy yet an incredible 8 of the 15 that
won were very similar to ZACINTO so he’s a decent bet

The Lockinge Stakes has an odds on favourite this year in
last years 4th PACO BOY. Like many I was impressed with
his win in the Sandown Mile. In 2009 PACO BOY won the
Sandown Mile and I opposed him in this race last year as
statistically there was a question mark. Horses that have
run this season have won 3 of the 15 Lockinge’s and they
all ran in the Sandown Mile as PACO BOY has done. The
fact remains that horses winning at Sandown and coming
to this race have a 0-26 record. That has to be a concern
as it beat him last year. It was the horses that Placed last
time at Sandown that won this race like THE CHEKA but
as he is lighter raced than any similar horse and that does
worry me. Given he is odds on and fails a big trend I think
it is worth giving ZACINTO a chance to win this race.

* Horses aged 4 first time out
* Between 4 and 12 career runs
* Previous Grade 1 form
* At least 3 Career wins
* Horses with that profile have a 8-16 record
* Its a better record than it looks
* 5 of the losers were beaten by the same type of horse
* ZACINTO has that profile and looks interesting
* Given the frame of the race I would be with him e/w
* ZACINTO each way is the suggestion.

Best current odds 7/2 bet365 s james

For all Odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-15/newbury/15-05/betting/

Best Wishes

Guy

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Posted under Major Horse Races

I have a full Account Bet for full members today but due to respect for them

I can’t put it up here.

What I do have for you however on the free betting blog is some analysis for another race today.

This is just a small snippet from the full member message.

SANDOWN 2.45

Chemring Group Handicap Chase
(for The Alanbrooke Challenge Cup)
(CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-135) 3m110y

5/2 Shillingstone, 4/1 Any Currency, 6/1 Ma Yahab,
8/1 Double Eagle, 9/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Bowleaze,
14/1 Maktu ,14/1 Mount Sandel, 20/1 Wind Instrument
50/1 Offaly.

* This is a 3m Handicap Chase for 0-135 rated horses
* Sandown has had 27 similar races at this time of year
* There are 233 similar races elsewhere

This has been a lightweights race. The 27 Sandown races
show horses with 11st 10lbs or more having a 1-47 record.
SHILLINGSTONE doesnt appeal to me off topweight. He
looks vulnerable mixing a high weight with an absence as
a very lightly raced horse. You wont find a winner in 233
races anywhere that had a 7 week absence and a weight
or more than 11st 6lbs when as lightly raced as He is so
I am opposing SHILLINGSTONE. I think OFFALY looks
outclassed. MOUNT SANDEL has too much to do with
just 1 run this year and a large weight. I cant see a horse
like that winning. WIND INSTRUMENT has 2 poor runs
on his 2 runs this season and looks out of form. I think it
is likely BOWLEAZE is being aimed at the Kim Muir next
month. Besides that look at the 233 similar handicaps for
exposed horses that had not run in 10 weeks and there is
a 0-66 record there suggesting BOWLEAZE wont be fit.
ISN´T THAT LUCKY has a poor profile. He has to come
from 2m 4f with just two runs this year and no horse did
that in 233 races and he has a nasty absence as well. I
dont see MA YAHAB as the best option not exposed
and with just one run this season.

SHORTLIST

MAKTU
DOUBLE EAGLE
ANY CURRENCY

OR JAUNE has a strong profile. He is very similar to the
1992 winner and last years winner and he looks very well
treated at the moment. I like MAKTU who comes from a
Novice Handicap Chase. He is light on experience with
4 chase runs but his profile is interesting. Another lighter raced horse is DOUBLE EAGLE but he is unexposed and
comes out well statistically. ANY CURRENCY probably
has the strongest profile with the worry from his profile
the fact his trainer states he is only 90% ready and this
is a prep race for Cheltenham.

SELECTION

MAKTU 7/1

ANY CURRENCY (Saver 7/2)

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

NOTTINGHAM 1.50

BET ON TotePLACEPOT AT ToteSPORT.COM
HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f13y

11/4 Silver Prelude, 9/2 Molly Two, 12/1 Bluebok,
12/1 Ryedane, 12/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 14/1 Gwilym,
16/1 Lake Chini, 16/1 Ronnie Howe, 16/1 The History
Man, 20/1 Comptonspirit, King Of Swords, 25/1
Brandywell Boy, 33/1 Thoughtsofstardom.

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-70 horses
* Nottingham has 11 renewals of this race
* There has been 162 similar races elsewhere
* Taking the Nottingham race first
* Horses with under 21 career runs were 0-70
* Horses that came from 6f or more were 0-36
* None of the 11 winners were aged 8 or more
* Horses with under 9st scored badly (1-84)
* Horses absent over a month also struggled

Some of these trends have to be broken today and I think the horse that will do it is SILVER PRELUDE. I totally agree with the Racing Post that now he is back at 5f he can dominate the stands rain. SILVER PRELUDE may be better on the sand but he is also effective on turf. He is very well handicapped off 55. He has his lowest turf mark in years and if you look at the class of horse he was facing a few months ago it dwarfs these. His turf form isnt as good but it is still more than good enough to beat this 0-70 field. Dont forget he is just about bottomweight as well for this and all his 3 wins on Turf have been over 5f. I think he could blow these away on his best form. He comes from a Folkestone race where he made all the running for the first 5f. He came into that race with question marks. He had lost in every 6f race he had contested before. He was an 8yo absent over a month so could have been fitter. This front runner needs the drop down in trip and I cant see many of these catching him in this race. There are certainly some negatives about his opponents.

* There has been 162 of these 5f handicaps in May
* Fillies that had under 9 starts had a poor 2-71 record
* None of those had just 1 run that season (0-20)
* None of those were aged 4 or more (0-30)
* MOLLY TWO fails those trends
* Fillies aged 4 with under 13 runs won just 3 of the 162 races
* None had under 3 runs this season though
* MOLLY TWO has that to overcome
* All winning fillies had more backclass than her
* LAKE CHINI is out aged 7 with long absence
* KING OF SWORDS doesnt look ready to win
* THE HISTORY MAN has all his wins after July
* He should need more runs to get to peak fitness
* TYRANNOSAURUS REX is exposed with a 44 day break
* Exposed Male horses that had run this year struggled with absence
* Those like him absent over a month were 1-116
* All 42 aged 5 like TYRANNOSAURUS REX lost
* I think the absence beats TYRANNOSAURUS REX
* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is in the same boat

I think there are several that might win this if others
dissapoint. I quite like the mare COMPTONSPIRIT
as a big priced runner but the way this should map
out is that SILVER PRELUDE a fit and in form and
very well handicapped runner should make all and
run these into the ground. I will be surprised if any
horse manages to get to him and overtake him.

SHORTLIST

* COMPTONSPIRIT is value at 25/1
* She was 4th in this race last year
* I like her profile and she fits the “Nottingham” stats
* SILVER PRELUDE looks the one

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

Silver Prelude is 3/1 with Sportingbet and Betfair
Silver Prelude is 11/4 with bet365 – betfred – Blue Squareuare
Silver Prelude is 5/2 with Tote – VC

Posted under horse racing tips

1 Selection

Leicester 1.55

HUSTLE 5/1 bet365

Each Way

The horse I want to bet  today
is HUSTLE. I think he will settle early and after a
furlong or so he will be a little outpaced and look
like he is under pressure. He should come back on
the bridle in the last two furlongs and use his turn
of foot to mow these down if Jamie Spencer can
ride him correctly. I dont think there are many
who can win this race. He comes from a good trial
race and will be finishing when many have cried
enough and I think it will take a dissapointing run
for him not be placed and I think he can win.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘S R A C I N G

Winner yesterday with REINDEER DIPPIN. He was not
pretty but he won in a workmanlike fashion and quite
a good price in such a small field and I have to be happy
with that. It may have been over hurdles and another
mismashed message but he won and I am keeping it
tight and profitable at the moment and whilst we are
lacking fireworks I am not in bad form. I am in control
of the racing at the moment which is a good sign.

LEICESTER 1.55

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP (CLASS 4)
(4yo+,0-85) 5f218y

9/2 Hustle, 5/1 Pravda Street, 8/1 Kipchak, 8/1 Vhujon,
10/1 Filligree, 10/1 Gift Horse, 11/1 Dancing Maite,
11/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Peter Island, 12/1 Sparton
Duke, 14/1 Harlech Castle, 16/1 Charles Darwin, 16/1
Timber Treasure, 20/1 Methaaly.

* This is a 0-85 handicap just short of 6 furlongs
* This race has an 13 year history
* There has been 100 similar races run at other tracks
* Seasonal debutants had a 1-43 record in this race
* FILLIGREE is a seasonal debutant filly
* 4yo fillies first time out like her won 3 races
* All 3 that won had ran in better grade than her
* She is also on a career high mark and not for me
* SPARTON DUKE is also a 4yo seasonal debutant
* These types are 0-18 in this race
* Horses with 1 run this year underperformed
* HARLECH CASTLE does this and comes from 5f
* Those with 1 run this year coming from 5f were 3-83
* None won this race at Leicester
* None anywhere lost as far as he did last time
* HARLECH CASTLE looks opposable
* Exposed horses with 1 run this year struggled
* All 36 that ran in this Leicester race lost
* PETER ISLAND fails that and has a months break
* GIFT HORSE fails this and usually wins later in the year
* TIMBER TREASURE doesnt appeal well beaten over 5f
* Horses dropping from 7f had a 1-48 record in this race
* In other races they did a bit better
* Those with under 7 runs though were just 1-33
* PRAVDA STREET does that
* Horses that won with under 7 runs were different types
* Those like him that ran this year were 1-31
* PRAVDA STREET is opposed
* KIPCHAK has just won over 7f
* All horses that came from 7f races had more backclass
* I didnt think he was safe in this race
* Not up 9lbs in the weights and up in class
* CHARLES DARWIN hasnt run into form yet
* I feel he needs more runs before he wins
* I cant find a winner like DICKIE LE DAVOIR
* He was beaten too far for me last time

SHORTLIST

HUSTLE
DANCING MAITE
VHUJON

* DANCING MAITE has a very solid profile
* I would have been happier with one factor
* No past winner came from the sand as he does
* I would have liked to have seen that
* HUSTLE comes from the same race as 2 past winners
* The 2006 and 2008 winners came from the same race
* VHUJON also ran in that race but has run since
* They were 4th and 5th in that race and hard to split
* VHUJON is not out of this
* My worry for VHUJON is stall one
* Not sure how bad a draw that might be
* I would rather be drawn high though
* My concern for HUSTLE is will he go the pace
* I see him at the back being bustled along
* I see him crusing through in the last furlong
* He will look the winner but will he run out of road
* His last race over 6f was actually sharper than this
* Despite less yardage this Course and Distance is stiffer
* It takes a second more to run over this trip and track
* Thats a massive help to HUSTLE in my view

SELECTION- HUSTLE

each way 5/1 bet365

Best Wishes

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

William Hill Lincoln Statistics

Forecast Odds
7/2 Expresso Star 7/1 Swop , 8/1 Charm School, 10/1 Huzzah
12/1 Don’t Panic 12/1 Flipando, Zaahid , 14/1 Titan Triumph
16/1 Benandonner ,20/1 Blythe Knight, 20/1 Docofthebay
20/1 Mia’s Boy, 20/1 Whistledownwind, 20/1 Bolodenka
25/1 Lady Deauville , 25/1 Eva’s Request, 25/1 Royal Power
25/1 European Dream , 25/1 Dream Lodge, 25/1 Cobo Bay
25/1 Ace of Hearts, 33/1 Philario.
For Live Current Odds from multiple bookmakers

Click Here

* The Lincoln is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* There has been 57 similar races elsewhere
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 1-43 record in this race
* Horses aged 7 or more struggled in 57 races
* They had a 2-144 record
* Those aged 7 + with Group form were 0-47
* Those aged 7 or more that were Male were 0-139
* The only runners aged 7 + to be considered are female
* Horses aged 6 or more are just 3-116 in this race
* All 3 were exposed and seasonal debutants
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran in Group races before (0-42)
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran this season (0-35)
* They all came from Class 2 handicaps last year
* None of the winners aged 6 + had 9st 1lbs or more (0-33)
* Horses with under 4 runs have a 0-7 record in this race
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won only 4 of the 17 Lincolns
* Exposed horses won 13 of the 57 other handicaps
* Those with prior Group Class form were just 1-88
* Those dropping from 9f or more were 0-97
* Those with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-101
* Exposed horses winning the Lincoln were all seasonal debutants
* Those that had run this season were 0-59
* Exposed horses aged under 6 were just 1-57
* Exposed horses that ran in Group Class before are 0-34
* Exposed horses that are Male have a poor 2-135 record
* Exposed horses beaten 10 + lengths last time are 0-50
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs carrying 9st 1lbs or more are 0-36
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran on sand this winter were 1-94
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran in Group Class before were 0-71
* Horses with 13 + runs that carried 9st 1lbs or more were 1-63
* Horses with 2 + runs this season were 1-51
* 6 winners came from the All Weather
* 5 of the 6 winners coming from the sand had under 13 starts
* Horses that came from the sand with 13 or more starts were 1-103
* All 41 aged 6 or more that came from the sand lost
* None of the Sand winners lost by 10 + lengths last time (0-37)
* None of the 6 winners from the Sand came from 7f or shorter (0-31)
* Only 1 of the 6 winners from the sand carried 8st 12lbs or more (1-44)
* Looking at the record of 4 year olds in this race
* Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
* Horses aged 4 already tested in Listed Grade or higher are 1-52
* Horses aged 4 that were absent 7 months or more were 0-18
* Fillies aged 4 are 0-17
* None of the 4 year old winners came from a 3yo handicap (0-18)
* None of the 4 year old winners lost 10 +lengths last time (0-43)
* Looking now at 5 year olds
* Horses aged 5 are best with 9-20 races
* None of the past 5 year old winners had ran in Group class before (0-19)
* Three recent 5yo winners came here having placed on sand within 2 weeks
* The LINCOLN winner has rarely run in Group Class before (1-90)
* In 16 renewals the only past winner that did that was Babodana (2004)
* Those that did run within 15 days had the following traits – They were all:
* Male horses Aged 4 or 5 with 5-20 runs that came Placed from a Class 2 handicap
* They also ran over at least a mile are had under 9st
* If you look at seasonal debutants they won 13 of the 16 renewals
* Seasonal debutants that came from 9f or more had a weak 1-74 record
* Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-64 record in the last 16 years
* In 16 renewals horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time had a 1-119 record
* All 16 winners had at least placed in their last 6 runs and 15 had won
* None of the 16 winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap last time out
* Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
* Both were seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5 and had 8st 6lbs or less
* Horses that came from 9f or more have won 2 recent renewals
* Those with under 9 runs were 0-15
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more had 21 + runs (0-41)
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more were aged 6 or more (0-36)
* Horses that were in the Top 3 of the weights had a 1-54 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs or more had a 2-91 record
* Both winners had under 21 starts and were seasonal debutants aged 4-5
* If a Horse has come 2nd in their last 6 runs – but not won its a problem
* These types have a 0-71 record
* Horses up in trip with fewer than 13 previous races had a 1-34 record
* No horse won this race coming from a 3 year old handicap before
* Horses with 9st 3lbs or more had a weak 2-74 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs + with 21 or more races before had a 0-36 record

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