Looking for a lot of luck this festival. You can do all the
preparation you like and I can assure you I have done more
than 99% of other punters out there but without luck its impossible with
so many top class horses. You can read a lot and listen
to many people and their opinions. Most of these do not
help at all. Most trainers and jockeys either have no idea
or want to make sure you don’t have one either and Trust
is hard to find in anything people say. It comes down to
Judgement on the day and a bit of luck in the right place.

I do love the Festival but cut away the hype and it is just
another race meeting for a professional to turn money over on.

As ever the name of the game is to seek value and think long term
NOT just aim at the most likely winner on the day.

One the free blog today I have previewed the 2.40 for you.

I have left it as a short list of six.
It is good that you think for yourself a bit.

I have however nailed my colours to the mast for full members here.

Note the Cheltenham Offer Page if you want to join up.

Analysis for all other Cheltenham Races today is within the member area right now.

********** CHELTENHAM DEAL  ************
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CHELTENHAM 2.40

Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

9/2 Bensalem, 11/2 Great Endeavour, 6/1 Sunnyhillboy
9/1 Reve De Sivola, 12/1 Blazing Bailey, 14/1 Wolf Moon
16/1 Carole´s Legacy, 20/1 Adams Island, 20/1 Chief Dan George 20/1
Exmoor Ranger, 20/1 Fair Along, 20/1 Rare Bob
25/1 King Fontaine, 25/1 Razor Royale, 25/1 The Rainbow Hunter 33/1
Carrickmines, 33/1 The Sawyer, 50/1 No Panic 50/1 Slippers Percy.

* The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992

NEGATIVES

* BENSALEM fell two from home in last years race
* It looked like he may have won last season
* I think there are enough doubts to oppose him this year
* He has not had a run over fences since this race last year
* No past winners came from hurdles or a Graded race
* He has fallen in 2 of his 3 previous chase starts.
* Most winners had more chasing experience than him
* I would like more than 2 runs this season
* No 8 year old has won this so lightly raced this season.
* Horses with 1-2 runs this year running with 7 weeks are 0-32
* I felt he badly need his last run and may need this again
* The last 11 winners carried less than 11st
* BENSALEM has more than that when underraced
* I feel there are stamina doubts. He’s yet to win at this far
* He has a 0-5 record at 3m and more
* His Sire hasnt had too many 3m winners either
* For me there are too many doubts about BENSALEM
* BENSALEM is opposed

* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival at all distances
* Since 1993 that has meant 75 Festival Handicap Chases
* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* No 6 or 7 year old won with 1-2 runs this season
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR fails that
* In fact there were only 3 that did it with 1-2-3 that year
* They were Andreas – An Accordion -Samakaan
* All 3 of those horses had Under 11st weight
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR looks weak with those angles
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR has a lot of weight with 11st 7lbs
* Only 2 of the last 17 winners had more than 11st 2lbs
* Both had Grade 1 form and he doesnt have that
* Both had 5 or more runs that season and he has just 2
* Both ran within 7 weeks and he doesnt either
* I think his weight and absence are problems
* They compact on the rest of his profile
* I looked at all English horses coming from 2m 5f or less
* None had 1-2 runs that year like GREAT ENDEAVOUR
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR has a career high mark as well

* SUNNYHILLBOY only has 2 runs this season
* I would want Grade 1 form for horses like that
* No winner won this with 1-2 runs without Grade 1 form
* There are stamina doubts and he has to come from 21f
* No horse managed that without Grade 1 form
* Throw in a long absence and he doesnt impress me
* I looked at all English horses coming from 2m 5f or less
* None had 1-2 runs that year like SUNNYHILLBOY
* Both had Grade 1 form and he only has Grade 3 form
* Both horses were older and had a more recent race
* SUNNYHILLBOY just doesnt look right

* BLAZING BAILEY has won his last 2 races
* It has left him with a career high mark and large weight
* He fails all sorts of weight statistics here
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Thats 74 races at the festival at all distances
* I looked for exposed horses winning with 11st 8lbs +
* Only one horse won in the last 75 races (Unguided Missile)
* He was well handicapped and well raced this year
* He also won in a small field
* BLAZING BAILEY has too much to prove for me

* REVE DE SIVOLA comes from a Grade 1 Chase
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Only 1 horse came from a Grade 1 Chase
* He (Sound Reveille) won the Grand Annual over 2m
* He had Pulled up just 2 days earlier in the Arkle
* REVE DE SIVOLA would be an unorthodox winner
* In his favour is that he is well handicapped on hurdle form
* He has a good record at Cheltenham as well
* He does have several problems to contend with
* He’s 6 and only 1 horse aged 6 won Since 1972 -1956
* That winner (Antonin) had 14 previous Chase runs
* REVE DE SIVOLA only has 4 Chase starts
* Thats less experienced than any recent winner bar 1
* REVE DE SIVOLA comes from 2m 6f or less
* I looked at both this race and the Kim Muir Handicap
* These are the 2 Handicap Chases over 3m at Cheltenham
* Horses from 2m 6f or shorter struggled in both races
* Horses aged Under 9 years old doing that were 0-48
* REVE DE SIVOLA also fails the last time out angles
* REVE DE SIVOLA has a weak profile in my view

* CAROLE´S LEGACY is a 7yo Mare
* No 7yo Mare has won any Festival Handicap
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Mares had a 2-55 record in these races
* None did it over 3m or more
* None did it  with under 4 runs that season
* None did with over a Months absence like her
* None did it with more than 10st 9lbs (0-26)
* CAROLE´S LEGACY looks unsafe to me
* Throw in the fact she comes from hurdles
* No winner of this race managed that
* She also has a higher weight than most winners
* What swings it for me is this
* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival
* Horses aged 7 won 10 of these 75 races
* Those carrying 11st or more were 0-47
* CAROLE´S LEGACY has 11st 5lbs
* No horse with her profile has won any Chase here
* CAROLE´S LEGACY has to go

* ADAMS ISLAND comes from a Graded Chase over 21f
* I looked at both this race and the Kim Muir Handicap
* These are the 2 Handicap Chases over 3m at Cheltenham
* Horses from 2m 6f or shorter struggled in both races
* Horses aged Under 9 years old doing that were 0-48
* No past winners came from Graded Chases anyway
* ADAMS ISLAND doesnt leap off the page to me
* Especially with an Apprentice Rider
* He has been busier this year than most previous winners
* He makes plenty of mistakes when he races as well
* No Cheltenham experience wont help
* His trainer is said to be worried about the track
* He hasnt any form in big field handicaps either
* I think this race will find him out
* NO PANIC has a poor profile
* He was beaten 99 lengths just 12 days ago
* Pulled up the time before
* Overexposed and prefers a sharper track
* There are not enough positives to consider him
* CARRICKMINES is an exposed horses
* He doesnt fit the pattern of any past winners
* No exposed horses were aged 7-8-9 like him
* They all had backclass in a higher grade than him
* He looks overraced this year since October
* He has a Career high mark on a track he’s never ran on
* This should be too hard a race for him
* SLIPPERS PERCY is impossible to fancy
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE is 11 years old
* He won this race last year with 10st 10lbs
* This year he has 11st 7lbs a very hard weight
* He also had more runs last season
* I looked at all Handicap Chases at the festival
* Thats every Handicap Chase at any distance
* Exposed 11 year olds with 1-2-3-4 runs that year are 2-72
* None carried 11st 5lbs or more
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE may just have too much to do
* RAZOR ROYALE is a course and distance winner
* He won the Racing Post Chase last year
* All 5 runs since them though have been miserable
* He tailed off in this race last year before pulling up
* Since then 4 runs and 4 heavy defeats
* I couldnt bet him on his recent form
* He doesnt feel fit enough or well enough to win
* THE SAWYER is 11 years old
* Horses aged 11 have a poor 1-46 record in this race
* I looked at all 11 year olds in all festival handicaps
* Take the ones that run within a Month
* Take the ones that have Graded Form
* Take the ones with 3-4-5-6 runs that season
* There are 5 winners like that in all festival handicaps
* THE SAWYER is the right type of 11yo
* That included the 1997 winner of this race
* Those aged 11 with 11st 2lbs or less were 1-3 in this race
* THE SAWYER should Not be opposed because of this age
* That said he was beaten further than ideal last time
* There is every chance he didnt stay last time
* It was in a Veterans Chase though which isnt ideal
* Two dilemmas for me
* Will the ground be too quick for him ?
* Has he had enough recovery time

MY SHORTLIST

* RARE BOB has 11st 10lbs to carry
* Thats a lot of weight for an exposed horse
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Exposed horses with 11st 8lbs or more are just 1-58
* That winner had more runs this season
* He didnt have that long an absence either
* That winner in the 1-58 record ran in this race
* That was Unguided Missile in 1998
* He had a 45 day break which is only 20 days less
* He also came from 2m 5f just as RARE BOB did
* That fact alone tells me I cant rule him out
* RARE BOB is a good price at 25/1

* KING FONTAINE is worth considering
* The only angle he fails is his last run wasnt good
* He Pulled up over 3m 4f at Haydock last time
* Ideally you want a horse 1-2-3-4 last time and he wasnt
* That said there are reasons to overlook that
* 1999 winner (Bettys Boy) was well beaten before winning
* He dropped from 3m 4f as well and was unexposed too
* He has a good weight and before his last run was flying
* He would have needed the run last time
* He has been dropped 2lbs in the weights as well
* He fits all the other important trends
* This is a horse thats going to the Grand National
* There has to be a concern this is a prep race
* All concerns are compensated by a very big price
*  KING FONTAINE is a big price at 33/1

* FAIR ALONG has to carry 11st 7lbs
* Thats a lot of weight for a small horse
* Thats probably my biggest worry about him
* Not sure about him either in a big field
* All his Chase runs have come in small fields
* All exposed winners of this had more runs that season
* They were also older than him as well as well
* FAIR ALONG has plenty in his favour though
* He is a high class Group 1 horse
* He is not badly weighted off 148
* I think he has the class to win this off a big  weight
* It’s just whether he can jump well enough
* Thats when a small horse in a big field with a big weight

* THE RAINBOW HUNTER is a lightly raced 7yo
* No concerns he has never run beyond Class 3 before
* Not dissimilar to 2006 winner Dun Doire
* I see him as progressive and a serious runner

* WOLF MOON won a Novice Chase last time
* The 2004 and 2008 winners of this race did that
* Both were 8 year olds as WOLF MOON is
* As a profile I am happy with that
* You could say the two other winners came from better tracks
* They both won with absences as well and he doesnt
* Neither were out of the handicap either
* WOLF MOON is 6lbs wrong at the weights
* That has to hurt him when there is a class issue
* Its a lot to ask for a Catterick Novice Chase winner
* There has been 1 winner of this out of the weights
* That was maamur back in 1996
* He was also an 8yo
* He also won within the past 15 days like WOLF MOON
* Thats what swings it for me
* Profile wise he is more than good enough to shortlist

* EXMOOR RANGER was brought down at the 7th last year
* I gave him a really good chance of winning this last year
* I wouldnt rule him out with 3lbs more this year
* Technically he is exposed with 21 runs but I forgive that
* He is on the cusp and he hasnt ran 21 full races yet
* Happy to overlook 11st 3lbs as well
* There are some doubts about him
* I dont like the fact he has a career high mark
* I dont like the fact he Unseated rider last time either
* He was going well when he fell though
* Statistically I cant match him as he wasnt 1-2-3-4 last time
* I still give him a good chance in this race
* Ground Trip and Track are right for him
* Very much one of the better options

LATEST ODDS AND PRICES FOR THIS RACE

See http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-03-15/cheltenham/14-40/betting/

 

 

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Thanks for those of you who emailed to say thanks for a bit of extra winnings last week.  Not the full cigar but 9/1 each way returned a bit of profit.

I had a couple of requests to have a look at the Racing Post Chase this week on the free blog.

It’s one of the extra races I looked at for full members so here are my quick thoughts on it.

KEMPTON 3.00

Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher
9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender
12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast
20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses
25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World
40/1 Mount Oscar.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 16 renewals of this race.
* Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases
* Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher
* FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me
* Not keen he has just 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had 1 run that season
* In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year
* When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners
* Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35
* That winner had less weight and a more recent run
* CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome
* RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season
* None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter
* All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that
* QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase
* No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record
* None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14)
* None had as much weight as he does either
* Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24
* QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough
* MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12
* SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip
* He lacks the backclass to overcome that
* PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season
* Similar horses had a 1-51 record
* That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA
* He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field
* RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year
* This year he has a much inferior preparation
* He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs
* He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him
* I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile
* MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts
* Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14
* MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me
* I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases
* I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass
* MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases
* The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13
* The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000)
* He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is
* MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps
* DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me
* Well beaten on all  starts this year
* I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races
* His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable
* POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time
* That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners
* They all had a more recent run than him
* They all had more backclass as well
* POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet
* 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before
* They all came from higher in the weights as well
* His form over this far raises stamina doubts too
* Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me
* SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* I found 1 similar winner doing that
* He did have a bit more backclass than he does
* The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class
* My best guess is that he wont
* The overnight rain wont have helped him either
* With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one

POSSIBLES

NACARAT – BAKBENSCHER
HEY BIG SPENDER – TATENEN

* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem
* The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile
* His stable is out of form though
* HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time
* I found 3 similar winners with that profile
* They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run
* HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile
* The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile
*  HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me
* One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race
* Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern
* No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight
* The other is whether a right handed flat track suits
* All his best form came away from tighter tracks
* It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed
* TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time
* I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races
* TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today
* His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats
* He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs
* Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record
* His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m
* Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina
* BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase
* Plenty to like about his profile
* Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed
* Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run
* The Positives far outweight the doubts for me

SELECTION

All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see
TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to
win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with
topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that
and a recent run steers me towards  BAKBENSCHER

BAKBENSCHER Win Bet     9/1  at bet365 and VC

( Nacarat – Optional Saver)

Posted under horse racing tips

The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
Sky VC Tote

Best Wishes

Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

I have full analysis for most Cheltenham races today for full members

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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One race today for the free blog.

CHELTENHAM 2.40

William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

5/1 Bensalem, 11/2 The Package, 10/1 Character Building
10/1 Theatrical Moment, 12/1 Exmoor Ranger, 12/1 Ogee
14/1 The Tother One, 16/1 Casey Jones, 16/1 Niche Market
16/1 Razor Royale, 20/1 Kicks For Free, 20/1 Nenuphar Collonges
25/1 New Alco, 25/1 Officier De Reserve, 28/1 Chief Dan George 33/1
Beat The Boys, 33/1 Joe Lively, 33/1 Offshore Account 33/1 Tatenen,
50/1 Comply Or Die, 50/1 Knowhere 66/1 Bible Lord, 66/1 Stan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The ante post chatter in this race has been dominated by
two seemingly well handicapped horses in BENSALEM
and THE PACKAGE dominating the front of the market.

* THE PACKAGE has been saved for this race
* He has not run for 95 days to protect his handicap mark
* Personally I am happy to accept he is well handicapped
* I dont think its as obvious as many think though
* The issue for me is will he defy an absence of 95 days
* Statistically I would have to say no for these reasons
* Cheltenham has had 132 Handicaps since 1993
* Thats 132 Handicaps at any distance – hurdle or chase
* Thats every handicap run at the festival in 17 years
* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days
* I then look at those like THE PACKAGE with 13 + runs
* There were 8 winners that did that
* None were aged 6 or 7 as THE PACKAGE is
* What I did find was the 8 winners had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* 7 of the 8 winners had Grade 1 form and all 8 had Grade 1-2
* THE PACKAGE has not got that
* Therefore no horse like him won a handicap with that break
* None with 13 + runs won absent 80 + days
* Not without a run in Grade 2 or better and he doesnt
* Thats what puts me off THE PACKAGE in this race

* BENSALEM is light on experience with 4 Chase starts
* He fell in one of those but last years winner did 3 chase runs
* I think you can overlook that because of last years winner
* That said last years winner had the ride of the season
* He looked easily beaten before a brilliant ride won it
* I dont mind that he has no handicap form
* His Jumping is the main problem though
* He makes several mistakes and isnt a fluent jumper
* He has never run in a Chase with more than 5 runners either
* BENSALEM has not raced on ground as fast as this
* His chance depends on how well he jumps
* Especially in a big field on ground thats not very soft
* I see risks in THE PACKAGE and BENSALEM
* I think I would rather bet BENSALEM of the pair
* I see BENSALEM as a Saver bet

* NICHE MARKET is pretty exposed with 17 chase starts
* That would worry me about a horse with 11st 6lbs
* The last 10 winners and 14 of the last 16 had less weight
* He isnt like any past winner that had a large weight
* He comes from a Grade 2 Chase last time out
* All 28 horses doing that in this race lost
* Its not a good preparation for a handicap here
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the festival since 1993
* Thats every Handicap over any distance
* Horses coming from Grade 1 or Grade 2 chases were poor
* Those with 10st 11lbs or more had a 1-135 record
* That horse was far less exposed and much younger
* This has never really been his track
* He has run well here before but both wins were right handed
* He could also have Aintree in mind rather than today
* I think he has an unimpressive profile

* THEATRICAL MOMENT has 4 Chase starts
* He has a nasty 78 day absence though
* It strikes me that if you want a horse with 4 chase starts
* Wouldnt you rather have Bensalem ?
* He has a much more recent run
* He has Graded form and THEATRICAL MOMENT doesnt
* He is only carrying 1lbs more weight
* That tells me THEATRICAL MOMENT has a bit to do
* Bought for good money by Jonjo O’Neil
* Improved since a Breathing operation
* His chance in perspective to Bensalem does put me off
* I gave an interesting stat when looking at The Package
* No Cheltenham Handicap of any kind went to this type
* Absence of 80 + days – 13 + carrer starts – No Grade 1/2 form
* Thats any of Cheltenhams 132 handicaps since 1993
* THEATRICAL MOMENT only just scraped through that stat
* Had he been absent a further 4 days he would have failed it
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more in this race have won
* However they all had form in a Grade 1 race before
* THEATRICAL MOMENT hasnt ran in any Graded race
* He is light on chasing experience with 4 runs
* There was a winner from a Novice Chase with no Graded form
* That was Fork Lightening (2004) but he had a recent run
* THEATRICAL MOMENT doesnt come out good enough

* CHIEF DAN GEORGE isnt out of this statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles than he has
* My biggest problem with him is the track
* I think he is best on a Flatter track
* I think the Scottish National is a better option

* RAZOR ROYALE won the Racing Post Chase last time
* He had a hard race last doing that 17 days ago
* That said two past winners were 1st and 2nd in that race
* They both won this. Malborough was the same age in 2000
* He did have a lot less weight though
* Statistically there’s no reason why he shouldnt do the double
* His weight of 11st 3lbs is higher than ideal
* The last 10 winners and 14 of the last 16 had less weight
* He has also been on the go since September
* Very few past winners ran as early in the year as that
* He has more runs this year than most winners
* There are some concerns and it wont be easy for him

* OGEE has 4 chase runs and is a little inexperienced
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* Only 2 past winners came from a Novice Chase
* They were both 8 year olds and he is a 7yo
* I looked at 7 year olds from Novice Chases
* Those with 10st 9lbs or less were 0-5
* They did have a second in 2000 but he had more experience
* I can’t match OGEE perfectly but it’s not a bad profile
* I think there has to be a worry about the track
* He has lots of form on sharp tracks and flat tracks
* He goes well left handed and has run well on other tracks
* It would be a worry but its far from certain to be a problem
* Its also interesting very few winners had Flat careers

I will be amazed if CHARACTER BUILDING can win this
race with just 1 run this season and a career high mark. I
would not want him at twice his price. COMPLY OR DIE
is rejected for the similar reasons. THE TOTHER ONE is
also rejected. I could not have any horse with 11st 12lbs
absent 78 days. I looked at all the handicaps run at this
festival since 1993 and no horse had been absent  more
than 7 weeks with 11st10lbs or more and he should have
too much to do. I looked at every handicap Chase run at
the Festival before at any distance. There were very few
seasonal debutants win. None were aged 8 (0-48) and
None did it without Grade 1 or Grade 2 form before so
OFFICIER DE RESERVE has to go. No horse has won
any handicap chase absent like NEW ALCO over two
seasons and he is being aimed at the National.

OLLIE MAGERN isnt up to this now. STAN has poor
recent form and a miserable preparation. BIBLE LORD
hates big fields and isnt fanciable. KNOWHERE looks
vulnerable now he takes on younger horses after his
Veterans Chase run. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT has not
been the same horse since Injury forced him to have
a long break and he has not done much since and he
looks a horse aimed at the Aintree Grand National.

BEAT THE BOYS has been off 95 days and as he is
also lacking Grade 1 form and has 13 or more career
runs he is another horse like The Package that fails
the statistic showing no horse has won a Handicap
at the festival before absent that long like him. I am
against JOE LIVELY too old for his weight and with
the wrong type of preparation. I wouldnt want a 6yo
like TATENEN and he doesnt look right at all.

* CASEY JONES problem is his weight of 11st 5lbs
* There were 2 winners that had 11st 3lbs or more
* Both had 5 or more runs this year and a recent run
* CASEY JONES has just 2 runs and a long absence
* No winner like him came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* I think his weight and absence really hurt him
* There is evidence this may not be his track

STRONG PROFILES

* NENUPHAR COLLONGES is worth considering
* He is a previous Festival winner
* I shortlisted him in the Hennessy last time
* I shortlisted him in this race last year
* He was beaten less than a length in this race last year
* He has got an absence of 108 days
* That said he has won fresh before
* On his profile he is interesting
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks
* Previous run in a Grade 1 race
* 2-3-4 runs this season
* 13 or more career starts
* Weight of no more than 10st 11lbs
* Horses in this race with that profile were 2-5
* Joes Edge (2007) had that profile
* Wichita Lineman (2009) also had that profile
* I would have liked a more recent run
* I would have liked a better last run
* Easy to see he is second string behind Bensalem
* That said I think he has a fair chance in this
* I think he has a much better profile than it looks

* EXMOOR RANGER is a Positive
* Unexposed 8 year olds like did excellently
* When 1-2-3 last time over 3m or more
* When not beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* When having 3-4-5 runs that year
* These horses had a 5-13 record
* The problem with him is his weight
* All 5 winners in the 5-13 record had 10st 9lbs or less
* Those like him with 11st or more were 0-2
* I am not too disheartened about that
* 1 of them came second and the other had a slipped saddle
* EXMOOR RANGER is a horse I feel positive about
* If I could change 1 think I’d give him 5lbs less weight
* I Would have liked more track form as well

* KICKS FOR FREE is reasonable statistically
* Two runs this year and an absence doesnt worry me
* He has Grade 1 Class which is important
* He is at his best when Fresh
* 2 past winners had the same profile as he does
* He is still lightly raced over Chases and could improve
* He has placed at two festivals before over hurdles
* He has been rejected by Ruby Walsh which is an issue
* I still give him a good chance in this race

SELECTION

NENUPHAR COLLONGES each way 22/1 Ladbrokes s james VC

KICKS FOR FREE each way 25/1 Ladbrokes bet365 VC

Posted under horse racing tips