I do like GALA CASINO STAR. I see a heavy draw bias. This
is a horse who has been out of form on sand. He is not a
sand horse though. He was badly hampered in Ireland at
Dundalk last time. Now He’s back on Grass and very well
treated he looks fitter than anything here and laid out to
take this race for Richard Fahey. He looks one that will
either winning easily or running badly but at 7/1 I Feel he
should be backed much as its a difficult race to win.

DONCASTER 5.55

Universalrecyclingcompany.co.uk Apprentice Handicap
(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f60y

11/2 Zaplamation, 6/1 Sharp Sovereign, 9/1 Blue Spinnaker
10/1 Rosbay, 12/1 King´s Counsel, 12/1 Law To Himself
14/1 Sharakti, 14/1 Swiftly Done, 14/1 Zafranagar
16/1 Frontline Phantom, 16/1 Hong Kong Island, 16/1 Koo
And The Gang, 16/1 Scarab, 20/1 Gala Casino Star, 20/1 Sail Home
25/1 General Tufto, 25/1 Star Addition, 33/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Easy Terms, 33/1 Red Skipper.

This race looks too difficult especially as it has always been a 12f race and this
year its switched to being a 10f race and that means there are zero past renewals.
I ought to mention  the draw which favours low Numbers.
At 4.50pm and 5.20pm there are handicaps over this distance which should show
how high numbers struggle.

Consider this.

* Since 2005 there are 31 Handicaps over this Course+Distance
* Thats 31 Handicaps with 10 or more runners in them
* Horses drawn 13 or more have a 1-104 record
* That sole winner (Timetable) was slightly unusual
* It was a 3yo Handicap and they raced up the middle of the track
* Because of the Draw I would avoid the following horses
* SHARAKTI – STAR ADDITION -ZAPLAMATION
* RED SKIPPER -SAIL HOME -BLUE SPINNAKER
* ROSBAY -   SHARP SOVEREIGN

I like GALA CASINO STAR. He was given a warm up
race in Ireland last week. Very badly impeded and I felt
he was there only for a warm up anyway. He was badly
blocked in for a furlong and ended the race on the bridle.
This time last year he started the season rated 88 yet is
only rated 69 this year.

GALA CASINO STAR 7/1 around earlier but now best priced 13/2 at betfred Tote Sky

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Posted under horse racing tips

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This free blog carries just a tiny tiny fraction of the full member advice.

Wolverhamton 1.20
BOLODENKA 11/2  Coral William Hill VC
Win Bet

BOLODENKA is 11/2  but also the outsider in a small
4 runner race. I think he ran well last time and it did
give me some encouragement that he can win this. I
could be made to look silly as his trainer also has the
favourite today in the race. I think the favourite has
an unimpressive profile. All 4 winners have chances
in this race so no negatives at all but BOLODENKA
has been brilliant placed rated 85 and facing only a
0-74 handicap and you can go back years for the last
time he ran against such low rated horses.

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.20

£32 Free At 32Red.com Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-87) 1m141y

11/8 Bawaardi, 7/2 Justcallmehandsome
11/2 Bolodenka, 11/2 Quick Release.

The 1st thing that crossed my mind was that we had
a class horse in BOLODENKA rated 85 having had a
rating of 95 recently – Taking on a 0-74 class field.

That makes BOLODENKA look better class than
these and brilliantly placed. The flaw in the argument
is whether BOLODENKA is able to run to his mark
and there is a doubt about that. Throw in the added
complication that Richard Fahey his trainer also has
the favourite BAWAARDI in the race. Statistically
I am opposing BAWAARDI. I looked at all similar
handicaps at this time of year. Horses like him who
came from 3yo handicaps had a poor 2-56 record
and both winners had 9 + runs and he has 6 and they
also had form in Class 2 races before and he doesnt
so I think BAWAARDI is vulnerable. He has had a
recent run but no 3yo won with a recent run anyway
and I am opposing him. The issue for me is whether
BOLODENKA can beat the two other horses. Both
have ability and are capable of winning a race like
this. Neither of them have the class that He has.
He comes from one of the better Claiming races
which relaxes me a bit. I think BOLODENKA has
to be the bet as he must be in the easiest race he has
ran in for a long time.

SELECTION – BOLODENKA

Posted under horse racing tips