Last day of the flat season today but we are seeking a profit in one of the National Hunt races at Sandown.

 

S a n d o w n  3.30

3/1 Hold On Julio, 7/2 Very Stylish, 6/1 Earth Planet
7/1 Moleskin, 8/1 Craiglands, 8/1 Pak Jack, 8/1 Soixante
9/1 Appleaday, 50/1 Local Present.

This is an interesting 3m Handicap Chase. I looked at
all similar races at this time of year. They all have to
be considered expect maybe LOCAL PRESENT. I am
going to oppose VERY STYLISH. He won on his chase
debut but that was a long time ago now and I wasnt too
impressed. I’m in no hurry to bet PAK JACK as he is a
11 year old seasonal debutant with topweight and has a
career high mark and poor win record. I cant rule out
several of these but two horses did stand out here.

HOLD ON JULIO

Initially I was going to make him a negative as there
are no Handicap Chases won by horses coming from a
Maiden hunter Chase. Then I can across this statistic.

* Horses coming from all Hunter Chases
* Having Under 9 career starts
* First Time Out
* There were 9 horses with that profile
* These horses had a very interesting 5-9 record

It strikes me the only reason to run a Hunter Chaser
like HOLD ON JULIO in a race like this is because he
is very well handicapped. He has won point to points
as well as his Hunter Chase win and Alan King has not
bought him for nothing. I have to see him in a different
light despite the fact the brilliant 5-9 record of Hunter
Chasers doesnt include winners from maiden hunters.

EARTH PLANET

There is a very good record in this race for horses
aged 9 that have recent runs especially over 3m or
more. Having a recent run has been a big help here.
When you consider the Whip Rules now that might
even be more of a help to EARTH PLANET. After
all apart from the “no hoper” All seven of his main
rivals are seasonal debutants. EARTH PLANET has
a considerable fitness advantage with 4 races so Far
this season. He has just placed at Cheltenham in a
similar Class race.  Yes he is frustrating and hard to
win with but he consistently runs well and has form
on right handed tracks and has shown he has enough
ability to win this race. Given how helpful its been
to have a recent run in this race I have to fancy him.

Selection

I do like two here a lot. I feel I have to have a saver
on HOLD ON JULIO around 3/1 but I think there is
a very good chance EARTH PLANET’s fitness may
get him home today and I like him each way.

EARTH PLANET 7/1 Each Way
HOLD ON JULIO 3/1 + Saver Bet

Best odds at time of free blog post

Earth Planet 7/1 Ladbrokes -  Tote

Hold On Julio VC – Tote – betfred

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

I am no fan of Champions dayat Ascot
as races have been borrowed or stolen from other
tracks, run at different times of the season often
upgraded and that corrupts my angles and makes
it more difficult. I have done what I can however
and have found one for the free blog that looks a
touch over priced.

 

A s c o t   1.50

9/4 Opinion Poll, 5/2 Fame And Glory, 7/2 Times Up
16/1 Motrice, 20/1 Colour Vision, 25/1 Chiberta King
25/1 Darley Sun, 25/1 Nehaam, 33/1 Eternal Heart
40/1 Polly4s Mark.

This 2m Group 3 race is actually the Jockey Club Cup
which is always run at Newmarket. It has been stolen
by Ascot to start their Champions Day card. Whether
any trends hold up because of this I dont know. There
are only mixed angles here anyway. This race has been
dominated by horses coming from the Doncaster Cup
last time out. An incredible 11 of the last 20 winners
of this race came from that race. Any horse that ran
elsewhere last time comes out badly because this trial
race has dominated the race. Today OPINION POLL
and MOTRICE come from this trial. Against these 2
are the fact no 5 year olds like OPINION POLL won
from that race and no filly like MOTRICE did either
so its complicated. FAME AND GLORY comes here
from a 14f race and horses doing that have not done
that well. TIMES UP has to be considered but he has
never won a Group race before the both his main two
rivals have won Group 1-2 races between them. I feel
I should stay with the Doncaster Cup horses despite a
few reservations given above. Because of that and the
race moving to Ascot I see a shortlist of two horses.

OPINION POLL- MOTRICE

I wouldn’t rule MOTRICE out. She started favourite
for this race last year but was only 3yo filly and she
did well to finish second. This year she is fresher and
older and comes from the best trial race. She has not
got much to find with OPINION POLL who was just
1.5 lengths ahead of her last time. That day I had her
as a negative for various reasons. She cant be that far
behind OPINION POLL and given that she is 14/1 I
have to see her as value having started 7/4 in this last
year. I see OPINION POLL as a good saver. Maybe a
good place only bet as well as he should be right there
and easily makes the shortlist. Given the prices I feel
we should try and attack the better priced option here.

Selection – MOTRICE 14/1 +  Each Way

14/1 at 1/4 odds available at bet365 William Hill & PaddyPower

Nb beware a few other miserly bookmakers  only offer 1/5 th odds

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

TODAY’S BEST BET

WARWICK 1.40

THE QUANTUM KID 10/1

Each Way

I have 4 additional bets for full members and all 4
could have beencontenders for my best bet today.
I have decided that a couple of these are short
enough prices in their races and the other pair
and in tough races so I have decided to go with
a bit of value today.

I like the Novice Handicap at Warwick and have
been playing some videos here. Complicated race
but I am convinced you want a Novice Hurdler in
ths sort of race that is lightly raced and ideally a
lighter weighted horse. I think ART BROKER is
my biggest danger around 6/1 and could have the
ability to go very close on his flat form. I’d drawn
more towards THE QUANTUM KID 10/1 here.

I liked him a lot on Video last time. He should be
thrown in off a mark of 98. His last run was in an
unusually warm Southwell Novice Hurdle when he
led jumping really well and only got caught 2 out.
That run was bound to have been needed after an
absence. The horses beating him are different class
and rated much higher than any of todays rivals.

Trainer Robin Dickin said last year that he wanted
to get the horse handicapped. He had a pelvis injury
so had time off last year but his last run tells me he’s
capable of winning off this mark. His trainer won the
race last year. He has a good record at his local track.
There is a little bit of market support as well which
doesn’t hurt. I feel there is optimism that he can go
very close in a bad race at a decent price. I will risk
him as my best bet today rather than the obvious.

WARWICK 1.40

Warwick Supports The Racing Lottery
Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110)  2m

7/2 Shalambar, 11/2 Art Broker, 13/2 Switched Off
13/2 Tara Warrior, 10/1 Kayfton Pete, 10/1 Peace Corps
12/1 Jomade, 12/1 Mega Watt, 12/1 Nosecond Chance
16/1 Hail Caesar, 16/1 Irish Symphony, The Quantum Kid
20/1 Superior Knight, 33/1 Cruise Control.

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle. There are 36 similar races at this time of year.
SHALAMBAR is a 5 year old and I think the wrong type of 5 year old.
First of all 5 year olds that won last time out were 0-14 and those that placed last time are 0-29.
Horses aged 5 from Handicaps had a weak 1-48 record.
The 5 year olds you want are lightly raced types unplaced in a Novice
Hurdle last time and SHALAMBAR is not that type so I want to oppose him.
HAIL CAESAR is also the wrong type of 5 year old.
I think CRUISE CONTROL has too much to do.
I feel SUPERIOR KNIGHT has stamina doubts.
Horses coming from Novice Hurdles are fine assuming certain conditions.
The Novice Hurdlers all had fewer runs than TARA WARRIOR
so he looks vulnerable and none won with his absence and that’s enough
to take him out. IRISH SYMPHONY is a mare and I don’t think in good enough form.
MEGA WATT comes out badly. I cut him some slack down in trip but his profile is
not safe enough. I dont like JOMADE hammered at 100/1 in his
Novice Hurdle last time. KAYFTON PETE is a little exposed
for a 5 year old to come from a Novice Hurdle especially with no
Graded form and such a high weight. A shortlist of 4 horses.

PEACE CORPS – Impossible to read. First run for new stable

SWITCHED OFF – Shortlistable but not quite right

NOSECOND CHANCE – Acceptable Profile but big weight

ART BROKER – There are similar winners

THE QUANTUM KID – The right type of profile

I have listed these in order of profile. PEACE CORPS is
the most riSky. SWITCHED OFF has a slightly better one.
NOSECONDCHANCE can’t be ruled out. Best profile for
me is ART BROKER and THE QUANTUM KID both of
these lightly raced Novice Hurdlers.  Impossible to know
how much of their ability has been hidden or how much
they will be showing today. Both Trainers have angles I
like here. I think ART BROKER is the biggest danger.

SELECTION

THE QUANTUM KID EACH WAY 10/1

Blog Comment:
10/1 was available earlier when this was provided to Mathematician members.

Best Bookmaker Price now 8/1 at numerous places eg Ladbrokes Hills bet365
See http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-02-12/warwick/13-40/betting/

PS This free blog just gets small snippets.

The above is only a small part of todays full message.

Join up to get the full picture.

There is a refund guarantee you can call on if not for you.

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 429

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Newmarket 5.05

RUN FOR EDE’S   2/1

Just one selection on a Rain hit Saturday.

There is one bit of 9/4 (bet365) but RUN FOR EDE’S is 2/1 with most bookmakers.

I have done something in the Stewards Cup but have no strong view there after Goodwood has changed the ground. Other than that there are Five Previews in the message. Happy enough with these races but there is only one horse I fancy enough to make a selection and thats RUN FOR EDE’S. Not a brilliant price but she only has 6 opponents. The weather is spoling the summer at the moment and when its lashing down as it is today all we can do is keep mistakes down to a minimum and be selective. Thats why I havent had an account bet today. RUN FOR EDE’S ran really well last week on a Grade 1 track in a much better race. I dont see any of her rivals achieving that level. In a weird twist of handicapping because she’s been underrated for two recent wins and Sir Boss has been hit hard for two recent wins RUN FOR EDE’S gets quite a bit of weight from Sir Boss when really her last two runs suggest that she ought to be conceeding weight not recieving it. I think that makes her look solid. She is my only bet today and I just want to get one winner on a day the weather throws all kinds of danger at us. There will be the planned Sunday Message tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ‘ S    R A C I N G

One selection yesterday. DEAUVILLE FLYER won having
landed a big evening gamble. I suppose it all depends on what sort of price you got. He was 6/1 in plenty of places yesterday and 5/1 for most of the day but the money came in form him late and he has been returned a ridiculous 9/4. Once he was in a dule with Crocus Rose I was always confident he would stay better. Nice way to end a difficult July. Cant do any harm to the confidence and we start a Fresh month today.

Unusually a 2.30 message today on a Saturday. I know from
experience just how difficult todays cards are.
I felt my best chances came later on and with a poor weather forecast there is much more sense in sending a later message and allowing a bit more time to play some videos.

NEWMARKET 5.05

SPORTINGBET HANDICAP (CLASS 4)(4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

2/1 Run For Ede’s, 9/4 Sir Boss, 5/1 Mubrook,  10/1 Clear Reef, 16/1 Force Group, 25/1 Rowan Rio, 33/1 Coeur De Lionne.

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

The market has chosen SIR BOSS as the favourite ahead of
RUN FOR EDE’S and I dont really see why thats justified. I
fully respect SIR BOSS as an improving 4 year old and I dont have any strong objections to him at all but he has won his last 2 races which were only 0-58 and 0-77 races and his last run in that 0-77 was only a Class 5 handicap and having been raised 11lbs by the handicapper he now finds himself topweight. His last 2 handicap wins were hardly in quality races much as he did it well. Consider the fact RUN FOR EDE’S has just also won two handicaps. They were in 0-85 and 0-77 handicaps no worse at all than SIR BOSS and RUN FOR EDE’S has also ran a very decent 4th in a Class 2 handicap. RUN FOR EDE’S was a  strong 4th in a 0-104 handicap at Ascot. It was a C2 Heritage handicap. 12 of her 15 opponents would not even be allowed to run in this race. RUN FOR EDE’S was beaten only 1.75 lengths from 4lbs out of the handicap. Whilst SIR BOSS has seen his rating jump from 68 to 74 and now 85 its highly interesting that RUN FOR EDE’S having achieved a lot more
has seen her rating only go from 70 to 74. She has only gone up 4lbs for winning two handicaps and running 4th in a 0-104 handicap. Bizzarely that means SIR BOSS has to concede 9lbs and a jockeys allowance to RUN FOR EDE’S who surely has achieved much more. RUN FOR EDE’S surely has to be better value around 3/1 notwithstanding SIR BOSS may have more improvement. I think at these weights RUN FOR EDE’S has to be the better option. I respect some of the others but she must be hard to beat. MUBROOK has a chance and he is fine  statistically as a lightly raced 4 year old. He hasnt won a race though and he wasnt handicapped instead just running on merit as a 3 year old and thats left me thinking that he may well be rated accurately and may not be thrown in off his current mark. Neither FORCE GROUP or ROWAN RIO strike me as horses about to win. CLEAR REEF is another big runner with the ground coming right but he is both exposed and coming down over 2f in distance and horses that did that didnt score that well. He is a danger though but I dont see a better option than RUN FOR EDE’S

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

NEWMARKET 1.50

SIGN UP BONUS AT BETINTERNET.COM
MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (3yo) 1m

2/1 Invisible Man, 3/1 Merdaam, 4/1 Present Alchemy, 7/1 Kapsiliat, 10/1 Secret Life, 12/1 Bourne, 12/1 Moojeh, 14/1 Kimberley Rocks, 20/1 Bengal Tiger, 33/1 A Lot Of Red, 33/1 Kilkenny Bay, 66/1 Cake Stand, 66/1 Inside Trade, 66/1 Laminka, 66/1 Supera.

Not a lot to say in the Opening maiden. I think I would have to go down the Each Way double route and consider that the best horse to do that with is INVISIBLE MAN. In the last 7 renewals of this race 4 winners were unraced shocks at double figure prices so much as you can see 20/1 bar 3 and assume it is a race full of unfancied horses its rarely as simple as that and I think the each way double makes sense. I have chosen INVISIBLE MAN as the selection as I was concerned about his main rivals. MERDAAM could be being handicapped on his 3rd run and KAPSILIAT is a filly from a 6f race and just one career run. I’d be inclined to oppose her especially from a low draw. INVISIBLE MAN may not win but he is likely to place. There were 24 horses starting favourite in all similar races with 3 or more runs as INVISIBLE MAN has and 20 of the 24 that tried placed or won. That suggests to me the saftest bet here is INVISIBLE MAN in an each way double. My best suggestion as the second leg is Riggins in the 2.20 at Newmarket who should go very close as well.

Posted under horse racing tips