Full members got a nice winner yesterday at about 20 /1 early odds.

On the free blog this Saturday I am posting up a much shorter odds selection.

Best profile today I feel is RUSSIAN GEORGE at Market Rasen
in the Novice Hurdle at 4.10pm but he is a shortish
price and does not get the juices flowing because of
that. If I wanted to play it very safe I would go with
him in a safe each way double but I think he will win

MARKET RASEN 4.10

B Eyre & Son Ltd Ford Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f

11/10 Russian George, 11/8 Sir Frank, 9/1 Society Venue
16/1 Not A Bob, 16/1 Royal Entourage, 25/1 Play To Win
28/1 Carrifran, 50/1 Loyal Knight, 66/1 Sound Of Silver.

This is a 17f Novice Hurdle. I think it is probably a two
horse race. I think SIR FRANK will take some stopping
but the better profile comes from RUSSIAN GEORGE a
4 year old that won last time out and very lightly raced.

* I looked at all Novice’s around this trip at this time of year
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a Novice Hurdle last time out over 2 miles
* Between 1 and 2 Career starts
* No form in higher than a Class 3 race before
* There were 15 horses that had that profile
* 10 of the 15 horses won and they finished in these places
* W W 2 W W 2 W 4 W W 2 W W 3 W
* RUSSIAN GEORGE is the selection

6/5 Paddy Power bet365 Betfair

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

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York 2.40

PERFECT SHOT  9/1

£25 Each Way

Blog Comment:
9/1 was available earlier for Full Members of my Private Betting Service
Best price now is 7/1  Coral, bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill

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YORK 2.40

10% Cashback At Coral Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

11/4 Theola, 9/2 Mykingdomforahorse, 6/1 Murcar
8/1 Danzatrice, 9/1 According To Pete, Perfect Shot
10/1 Mith Hill, 11/1 Mr Crystal, 14/1 Sphinx
20/1 King In Waiting, 20/1 Royal Entourage
25/1 Ruff Diamond, 40/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Daltaban.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-83 rated horses
* October has seen around 97 handicaps like this over 16f-18f
* ROYAL ENTOURAGE wont stay
* He is also weak aged 4 and up from a 12f race
* Since 1994 4 year olds from 12f races were 0-67
* INDIAN PIPE DREAM shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 7 with 1 poor run since April
* He comes with far too much risk and should fail
* DALTABAN has been absent far too long
* None of the 97 winners were as old as SPHINX
* He is 11 years old and is underraced this year
* No horse aged 9 + won losing by as far as him last time
* He shouldnt be anywhere near his peak and is rejected
* Exposed horses losing by 10 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a poor 6-201 record
* When racing within 2 weeks they were 1-94
* MR CRYSTAL fails that
* Look at exposed male horses aged under 8
* When beaten 10 + lengths last time they were 1-112
* MR CRYSTAL fails that and wont be fit
* Not with 1 run since July
* ACCORDING TO PETE shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 8 and just 1 run since January 2009
* RUFF DIAMOND is hard to read from Novice Chases
* I think he has a poor profile and looks hard to fancy
* He also looks a very unlikely stayer
* KING IN WAITING has had plenty of problems
* He found some from last time out
* That was in a low grade and this is a much better race
* He is likely to be outclassed by something
* DANZATRICE is a 7 year old mare
* Only 1 Mare aged 6 or more managed to win
* Only 5 exposed mares won in the 96 races
* 4 of those had under 8st weight
* DANZATRICE has over a stone more than that
* I think you want a younger unexposed horse
* DANZATRICE wouldnt be my choice aged 7
* After all she is on a mark she has not won off before
* When racing above Class 5 she has a 0-19 record
* DANZATRICE needs a Career best to win this
* I think she will prove vulnerable to youngsters
* MITH HILL is an 8 year old
* He too is vulnerable to lighter raced horses
* He has a lot of weight for a horse aged 8
* He has a mind of his own and looks unsafe
* Not well handicapped and hard to trust
* MURCAR is 4 and comes from 14f
* Horses aged 4 coming from 14f or less didnt impress
* When having 9 + runs like him they were 2-69
* None had anywhere near the weight he has
* 4yo Males like MURCAR doing this were 1-49
* Can not rule him out but he’s unimpressive statistically

SHORTLIST

* MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE is a 3yo from a 14f race
* 3 Year old males doing that were fine
* Those with 9 + runs like him had a 3-21 record
* All 3 winners had ran in slightly better grade than him
* That said a recent run helps him
* THEOLA has a nice profile as a 3yo filly
* I have nothing strong against her
* I would have liked her to have ran 1-2 more times
* I would have liked a more recent run
* Other than that she has a good chance
* PERFECT SHOT has an excellent profile
* Unexposed 3 year old with form over 2m
* He looked to find the ground too fast last time
* As long as its not too firm he is a huge runner
* The ground at York looks far more suitable

SELECTION = PERFECT SHOT

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips