Great St Wilfrid Stakes

Great St Wilfrid Stakes
(Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

This is one of the Big races tomorrow. I have
previewed the race below and am sending this now.
I will finish the conclusion for full members when
I know the ground tomorrow.

 

* The Great St Wilfrid is a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 21 renewals of this race
* There are 52 similar races in August
* I want to start with the Draw
* Since 2011 Ripon have had 22 handicaps
* Thats 22 handicaps over 6f with 12 + runners
* Horses drawn 1 or 2 had a 0-42 record
* No horses drawn 18 or higher won either
* To be fair only a very few tried to win from stall 18+
* All 22 winners were drawn between 3 and 17  
* SPINATRIX has a poor draw in Stall 1
* BORDERLESCOTT  has a poor draw in Stall 1
 *I looked at 52 similar handicaps in August
* I looked at horses from 5f races
* These horses struggled without a run within 2 weeks
* The only horses overcoming this were lightly raced 3yo’s
* I looked at horses aged 4 or more from 5f races
* Those without a run within 2 weeks were 0-97
* BORDERLESCOTT just fails that
* As he is 11 with just 2 runs this year he is rejected
* CONFESSIONAL is out from 5f but 50 days ago
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time have struggled
* Only last years winner overcame this in 21 past renewals
* THUNDERBALL – POLSKI MAX – BLAINE fail this
* I can’t make any case for those three horses
* POLSKI MAX and BLAINE are 3yo Males
* 3yo Males have a 0-32 record in this race
* REGAL PARADE is unsafe as a 9yo
* Exposed 5 year olds with 21 + runs struggled
* They have a 3-195 record in these races
* DR RED EYE fails this and has never won at 6f before
* EL VIENTO is also an exposed 5 year old
* He has never won off his current rating before
* He’s running well and many will fancy him
* SPINATRIX is an exposed 5yo as well
* She is a Mare Drawn 1 which is a worry
* SPINATRIX is up in class to a grade she hasn’t won in
* She has to do this from a career high mark of 100 too
* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an exposed 5yo
* We know similar horses have a 3-195 record
* He’s never won a Class 2 handicap before in 16 tries
* He’s never won from this handicap mark either
* Running well he could win but his profiles weak
* ZACYNTHUS has a career high mark
* As he has never raced over this distance he is out
* The highest rated winner of this race was 101
* Recent winners had the following ratings
* 99 87 95 94 100 92 98 99 80 98 96 83 85 75 101 83 95
* HOOF IT has his work cut out rated 109
* Especially when only having 2 runs this season
* CAPTAIN RAMIUS has to defy a rating of 107
* Thats as a 7yo with a 121 day absence so he is out
* BACCARAT is a 4 year old with just 7 runs
* There were 18 winners aged 4 in the 52 races
* 17 of the 18 winners had 13 or more career starts
* BACCARAT only has 7 career starts
* Horses aged 4 with under 13 career starts were just 1-73
* That horse (Hidden Dragon) won this race in 2003
* He had 11 runs though 4 more than BACCARAT
* BACCARAT is very lightly raced for a 4yo
* He only has 3 runs this year less than many here
* He’s progressive and has been gambled
* He looks like the return to sprinting is what he wants
* He’s had good excuses for defeats so lots to like
* Its simply that no 4yo has won anywhere like him
* Considering he is also short at 5/1 he is rejected
* SUMMERINTHECITY is an exposed 6yo
* Coming from 6f he last ran over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 0-62 record
* Closest was Markab the 2009 winner of this
* He had that profile with 14 days absence
* SUMMERINTHECITY has 21 days off a bit more than ideal
* I could overlook that extra 7 days
* He has been raised in the weights for losing though
* That seems unfair and it hurts his chance
* RODRIGO DE TORRES is an exposed 6yo
* Coming from 6f he last ran over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 0-62 record
* Closest was Markab the 2009 winner of this
* He had that profile with 14 days absence
* RODRIGO DE TORRES has 7 extra days to defy
* He’s more positive than negative
* He has no Ripon form though and I prefer others

My Early Draft Shortlist

* DICK BOS is 4 and has 11 career starts
* The 2011 winner had the same profile
* That makes him a positive but I’d prefer more runs

* PRODIGALITY is 5 and has 19 career starts
* I looked at all 5 year olds with 16-21 career runs
* I Found a 2-25 record with this profile
* Both horses achieved more than he did last time
* I can excuse that as he had an impossible draw
* Drawn 1 at Goodwood when stalls 26 25 28 dominated
* Unlikely stable to win but he has a chance

* PEARL ICE is 5 and has 13 career starts
* I looked at 5 year old males with 11-12-13-14-15 runs
* I found an encouraging 3-19 record
* Take out those from 5f races
* Take out the fillies in this record
* Take out the ones that were well beaten last time
* This improves that record to 3-10
* All 3 winners had 3-4 runs this season like him
* PEARL ICE has a very solid profile
* He has a 2 W record at this track
* I used to think the race he just won was a bad trial race
* The 2011 winner did win from that race

* SECRET WITNESS is a 7 year old
* There were 5 winners aged 7 or more
* They all ran within 2 weeks like him
* They all came from 6f and were well raced that year
* SECRET WITNESS’s profile isn’t too bad
* The dilemma is should we ignore Stall 20 here
* In the 2011 renewals 1st 3 home were drawn 17 20 19
* Mid division in this last year he’s much lower in the weights

Best Wishes
Guy
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Betting At Lingfield Today

Lingfield 1.55

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1

Statistically this is a horrible little race and one
that will be affected by the draw as the 3 market
leaders have the worst draws 10-11-12 so much
will be down to tactics and a bit of luck. I think
that TEMPLE ROAD is the one because having
watched his recent runs its clear he still has a
ton in hand and I don’t believe he is finished yet.

Racing Post Odds

4/1 Temple Road, 5/1 Black Cadillac, 13/2 Welease Bwian
7/1 Speak The Truth, 8/1 Rich Again, 9/1 Jack My Boy
9/1 Waabel, 10/1 Belle Bayardo, 10/1 Frognal
14/1 My Own Way Home, 16/1 Desert Strike, 25/1 Putin.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* I have been banging on about the 6f draw here
* There have been 65 handicaps here since 2012
* Horses drawn 11 or more are 1-72 in these 64 races
* That was 0-71 but yesterday a Stall 11 won
* It was a falsely run race and that wouldnt put me off
* I would still much rather avoid the higher stalls
* BLACK CADILLAC has the worst draw in Stall 12
* He won last week and has a sound chance otherwise
* I just cant be with a horse from that stall at the moment
* RICH AGAIN is Drawn 11 also failing that statistic
* The rest of the race is a statistical mess
* No runners have absences almost all run within 2 weeks
* No runners come up in distance either
* There is a shortage of fillies in the race
* Luck will be an important factor here

TEMPLE ROAD won last time and has recent form
figures of W W 3 W. The defeat two runs ago was a
strange one. He looked to win easily and went 1.01
in running but somehow ended up on the far rail and
got caught. He did win last time and watching it on
video he had a ton in hand and wasnt even extended.
This horse still looks very well treated. With a good
passage he could outclass these. The problem is
that whilst the draw stats say avoid horses drawn 11
or more TEMPLE ROAD is drawn 10 and thats a bit
higher than I’d like. Visual impressions of him tells
me to ignore that. This looks a horse that should win.

Selection

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1 William Hill    bet365   Tote

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

A Poor Saturday

There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r 2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2 3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw

Shortlist

* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected

Selection

CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each Way
at betfred bet365 Coral PaddyPower

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Posted under horse racing tips

Bookmaker Expense Claim

No joy last week on the free blog with Wotova only placing.
He did run again yesterday however and I pointed full members to him.
This time he won at a decent price.
It happens often when you can spot a horse in the zone of winning
that he may not please you first run but the following time out.

Last week I mentioned the firm bet was full member only.
That did very well for them.
Structured as two win bets and an each way double on
Ascot 1.45 – SHOW FLOWER 3/1
Nottingham 2.00 – DISPOL GRAND 7/2

Both horses won landing a good profit.

We had another good day on Friday with a 10/1 firm bet winner.

The full member service is in great form with profit on turnover on my firm tips
running at a level of about 40% for the past 8 months or so of current message format.

Today for full members I have covered 15 races spread between
the three main meetings at Newmarket, Newbury and Thirsk.
It’s quite a typical Saturday with some taxing handicaps and lots
of pitfalls on quality tracks with very few favours given.

I do have a firm full member bet in the 4.15
Join at link below for instant access
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

For the free blog tip today I am again posting up one of the additional races I have examined.

N e w b u r y 3.05

11/4 Thomas Chippendale, 9/2 Hajras, 8/1 Expense Claim
8/1 Rewarded, 10/1 Almuftarris, Icelander, 14/1 Clayton
14/1 Poetic Lord, 14/1 Trader Jack, 16/1 Al Saham
16/1 Hurricane In Dubai, 33/1 Humungosaur
33/1 Tidal Way, 50/1 Mcvicar.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 10f
* Recent evidence suggests avoid the very low draws
* Since 2011 there were 15 handicaps with 9 runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 had a 1-57 record
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 8 5 14 8 6 5 2 5 10 12 6 9 11 13 14
* ICELANDER is unsafe and is also drawn 1
* POETIC LORD is drawn 2 and opposed
* He is quite exposed for seasonal debutant
* HAJRAS isn’t drawn well in stall 3
* I dont like him from a 3yo handicap over 8f
* There were several winners doing that
* None had 2 runs like HAJRAS
* Those like HAJRAS winning last time were 0-16
* REWARDED also won a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* We know all 16 horses doing that failed
* TRADER JACK didnt run well enough last time
* I feel the same about TIDAL WAY
* HURRICANE IN DUBAI won a maiden last time
* None did that with only 2 career starts
* HUMUNGOSAUR – Too exposed to be beaten so far
* MCVICAR – Unlikely to hold off the improvers
* AL SAHAM – No winners came from Pattern class as 2yo’s
* CLAYTON – Not far away but only 2 runs
* The only horses like him had 3 runs and I’d prefer that
* ALMUFTARRIS won a 10f maiden last time
* Normally that was a bad profile in this race
* The 2010 winner did win with the same profile though
* That gets him respect but he is the owners 2nd string

Shortlist

* EXPENSE CLAIM – Good solid all round profile
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE – 1 similar winner
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE is the most likely winner
* I’d want to include both horses in the staking plan
* Given the prices I am drawn to the bigger priced horse

Selection

EXPENSE CLAIM 7/1 Win Bet blue sq – betfredWilliam Hillbet365

THOMAS CHIPPENDALE 9/4 Saver Bet blue sq

Live market odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-19/newbury/15-05/betting/

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

4th Winning Saturday In A row?

We have won for you followers the last three Saturdays in a row. Around the end of October we had another good burst of an 18/1 winner followed by a 6/1 winner.

Thanks to those of you who emailed in over the past few weeks to say thanks for the winners. It always makes me smile to here of bookies getting done over :)

Four in a row is a big ask however. Don’t go mad with stakes just because the last three produced winnings. A six to one shot with a calculated 25% edge for example is still statisically more likely to lose than win on the day. Bet such horses long term however and you come out well ahead.

 

Saturday’s Free Racing Tip

 

 

I like LOYALTY’s chance a lot mainly because he
has a good profile but also because I can tear holes
in the profiles of many of his opponents. The big
problem here is a big field and the desperate need
for luck in running and there are no guarantees of
that and this makes him unsafe and far more riSky.

Friday’s  Full Service Review

Overall a pretty spicy message yesterday given time was
lost with the Racing Post website going down. I ended up
with 14 races to sort out. There were 4 of these that we
broke level in through either savers or each way bets and
they just cancelled each other out. That left 10 races and
there was a clear victory with 5 winners and 5 losers lots
better than I had hoped for. This included a 10/1 winner
so well ahead on paper and overall a good message which
shows my angles work and also shows the more you read
from the message the richer the experience should be.

L i n g f i e l d  1.50

3/1 Mabait, 9/2 Spirit Of Sharjah, 5/1 Clockmaker
6/1 Loyalty, 8/1 Night Lily, Kakatosi, 12/1 Bravo Echo
12/1 Elna Bright, 16/1 Mr Willis, 25/1 Layline
66/1 Mister Green.

* This is an all aged conditions race over a mile
* Quality race but only 18 similar races are run
* I think you have to look at the Draw here
* I looked at 8f Lingfield races with 10 + runners
* The last few races went to the following stalls
* 8 6 5 8 12 7 11 10 2 8 3 10 3 7
* I think the worst stalls have to be 1-2-3
* The last 8 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* MABAIT is Top rated but I see interesting flaws
* He has fewer runs this year than every other runner
* All exposed horses had more runs this year than him
* All horses from 7f races also had more runs
* MABAIT is exposed and comes from 7f
* Dont feel he is equipped to do that with 4 runs this year
* LAYLINE comes out badly with his absence
* ELNA BRIGHT – Doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* KAKATOSI looks unsafe to me
* He has just 1 run since last July and was thrashed in it
* Throw in a step up in distance he looks opposable
* MISTER GREEN is outclassed
* MR WILLIS comes out badly and is badly weighted
* For an exposed horse up in trip he is underraced
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH wouldnt be first choice
* Not exposed and with 1 run since last June
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH also has a bad draw in stall 1
* NIGHT LILY wouldnt be my first choice
* I think Stall 2 wont do her any favours
* She is also a Mare and comes from a conditions race
* BRAVO ECHO – Not a negative but doesnt offer much

S h o r t l i s t

* CLOCKMAKER – I see him as shortlistable but unsafe
* He comes from 7f and winning last time troubles me
* The only horse winning at 7f last time was younger
* I think there are flaws in his profile but he’s in form
* Not keen on his draw much in stall 3
* LOYALTY – Very nice profile 3 similar winners
* He is well drawn and has easily the best profile
* Will need luck in running but a clear choice

Selection

* LOYALTY 6/1 Each Way bet365 s james

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips