LINGFIELD 6.20

11/2 Bateleur, 8/1 Another Try, 8/1 Plumage, 10/1 Dualagi,
10/1 Mr Skipiton, 10/1 Sherjawy, 14/1 Charlie Delta, 14/1
Rhapsilian, 16/1 Hollow Jo, Keep Dancing, 20/1 Kingsgate
Castle,25/1 C’Mon You Irons, 25/1 Calypso Girl, 33/1 Ejeed, 33/1 Scruffy Skip.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There has been 120 similar races in June

High Drawn horses have a massive advantage over this Course
and Distance. The last few handicaps here over this trip with 9 or more runners have seen the winning stalls drawn as follows. 10-10 , 7-9 , 9-9 , 9-9 , 13-13 , 12-14. I wouldnt entertain a low drawn horse. I would oppose KEEP DANCING – SHERJAWY C´MON YOU IRONS are all drawn in the bottom 4 stalls and KINGSGATE CASTLE is also badly drawn. There are several of these that dont look fit or ready to win. I’d argue this includes SCRUFFY SKIP and EJEED. HOLLOW JO is out with a long absence as an older horse. MR SKIPITON is out having a nasty absence and also a step up in trip. Whilst he has a good draw CHARLIE DELTA doesnt look ready to win. He’s exposed and has a big weight and has hasnt ran wellenough this year to think he can win without more runs. I am ruling out CALYPSO GIRL a filly from a 3yo handicap. You can give both DUALAGI and
RHAPSILIAN chances but no more than that and in an 18 runner race neither are well drawn in stalls 6 and 8 and I dont want a Mare from a bad draw. I feel there are 3 runners in this race.

PLUMAGE – BATELEUR – ANOTHER TRY

We backed PLUMAGE last night and she dissapointed but it
was a better race last night with far more improvers and she is very fit. It will be very annoying if she wins. I would also want to shortlist ANOTHER TRY. He has just won at Southwell and is a lightly raced horse. He won a poor race on sand and you wouldnt fancy the horses he beat in this race and he was 18/1 and has no form on Grass at all. He is lightly raced and well drawn though. Statistically he is only average and not many winners come from the sand in these races and he is a hard horse to judge. It depends on what he thinks of the grass. BATELEUR has the outstanding profile. Couldnt fault it at all and unless there is a deluge of rain tonight I think he’s the one.

SELECTION – BATELEUR Best Price 11/4 Corals

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Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN – NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners  of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won – the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had  7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO – POSSOL – FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION – UNGARO Each Way 14/1  Blue Squareuareuare

CentreBet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however . it looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

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