Scottish Grand National

Scottish Grand National

AYR 3.20

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

8/1 Poker De Sivola, 9/1 Meanus Dandy, Theatrical Moment
12/1 Gone To Lunch, 14/1 Faasel, 14/1 Scots Dragoon, Merigo
16/1 Mobaasher, 16/1 That´s Rhythm, 20/1 Dom D´orgeval
20/1 Killyglen, 20/1 Lothian Falcon, 25/1 Auroras Encore
25/1 Halcon Genelardais, 25/1 Himalayan Trail, 25/1 Montero
25/1 Razor Royale, 33/1 Chiaro, Gidam Gidam 33/1 Out The Black
33/1 Superior Wisdom, According To John, 50/1 Cleni Boy 50/1 Idle Talk,
50/1 Ma Yahab, No Panic, 50/1 Present M´lord 50/1 Western Gale,
66/1 Lorum Leader, 100/1 Craiglands.
* The Scottish Grand National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992

In Nationals I am very suspicious about horses that look
underraced this year. No horse has won this race having
had under 3 runs this year so CHIARO – WESTERN GALE
weak profiles. Others that look underraced this year are
CLENI BOY and IDLE TALK. I’d oppose these few horses.

Preperation is everything in Nationals and its interesting
that horses who Fell last time out or who Pulled Up had a
0-112 record in this race. You want a horse coming  here
confident and in form I’d be wary of horses not finishing
or falling in their last race. ACCORDING TO JOHN fails
that as does RAZOR ROYALE – LORUM LEADER and
THAT´S RHYTHM. I would be inclined to ignore these.

You want  some Experience over fences.Go back to 1998
and look at all the winners and the seconds and thirds in
this race. There are 33 win and place positions there and
the 33 horses all had the following number of chase starts.

13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21
10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17

You can see that no horse won or placed in this race
with fewer than 5 Chase starts. I would want at least
5 chase runs. SUPERIOR WISDOM doesnt have the
experience. I am also against MEANUS DANDY with
just 4 Chase starts. He is also a 7yo and only 1 winner
was that age and he had Graded form. MONTERO is
also rejected with just 4 Chase starts.

There’s been 2 recent winners that lacked Graded form
so it can be done but Neither of these were exposed so
I would be wary of horses that have ran enough times
to be classed as exposed but who haven’t got any past
form in Graded races before. I suspect these horses will
FINE BY ME – MA YAHAB are all lacking this factor.

Horses from ordinary Novice Chases have yet to win it
and all 19 that tried failed. MOBAASHER fails that and
is not for me. Tehnically POKER DE SIVOLA also fails
that when winning the 4m Cheltenham Amateur Riders
race at the Festival. You can probably forgive him that
as a Festival winner but he is only a 7 year old and they
have the worst records and it’s asking a lot for a  horse
to win at Cheltenham and win this as well. If you look
at the horses that came from the Cheltenham Festival
they had a 2-68 record. None were exposed horses as
POKER DE SIVOLA is. None were 7 year olds. Both
who did it had Grade 1 form and he doesnt and what’s
possibly more interesting is that no horse that finished
1-2-3-4 at the Cheltenham festival won this race. Thats
enough to put me off POKER DE SIVOLA. Staying with
Cheltenham Festival horses THEATRICAL MOMENT
also comes from Cheltenham. We know no 7 year olds
done that and no horse has done it without a previous
run in a Grade 1 race and he lacks that. Considering all
7 year olds struggled in this race (1-44) and that winner
had more backclass THEATRICAL MOMENT doesn’t
really interest me. NO PANIC is also a 7yo and rejected.

I dont like horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter. Only 1
past winner did that and he had a run within a week. It
is why I oppose AURORAS ENCORE who also comes
from hurdles something no past winner had done. I do
not think CRAIGLANDS has the backclass to overcome
a nasty absence. HIMALAYAN TRAIL is an exposed
11 year old and these horses dont score well.



GONE TO LUNCH is shortlistable but to have been a
really strong runner he needed to have finished better
last time and a heavy defeat knocks him back a bit. I’d
shortlist DOM D´ORGEVAL as his run last week just
gets him through the shortlist. KILLYGLEN looks one
of the better runners if he can cope with the weight

DOM D´ORGEVAL 20/1  bet365 who pay 5 places

Each Way

Posted under Major Horse Races

Scottish Grand National


A snippet from my full service over at

Not a race I am staking heavily in myself but its the big race of the day and I thought you would be interested in the analysis and research.

HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

7/1 Chief Dan George, 8/1 Nine De Sivola, 8/1
Tricky Trickster, 10/1 West End Rocker, 12/1
Merigo, 12/1 That’s Rhythm, Gone To Lunch,
16/1 Hello Bud, 16/1 Out The Black, According
To John, 20/1 Brooklyn Brownie, 20/1 Chiaro,
20/1 Dear Villez, 20/1 King Barry, 20/1 Sound
Accord, 25/1 Coe, 33/1 L’Aventure, 33/1 Native
Coral, 33/1 Sea Diva, 40/1 Arteea, 50/1 Le Toscan.



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* The Scottish Grand National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992
* I have looked at 64 other races
* Since 1993 there has been 64 Handicap Chases
* Thats 64 races between Febuary and June
* Thats 64 races over distances of 3m 7f or more
* Thats 64 races in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes several Nationals and the the Eider
* These 64 are the closest races to the Scottish National

The first thing I would do is ignore horses that ran
in the Grand National. You have to go back to 1987
for the last horse to win this race coming from the
Grand National. ARTEEA fails that. I would oppose
all older horses aged 11 or more with under 5 runs
this year. NATIVE Coral is out aged 11 with 3 runs
this year. No horse has won this race with under 3
runs this year so ACCORDING TO JOHN is out.

I think LE TOSCAN is up too far in trip. Preperation
is everything in Nationals and its interesting that
horses who Fell last time out or who Pulled Up had
a 0-109 record in this race. You want a horse coming
here confident and in form and I’d be wary of horses
coming here not finishing or falling intheir last race.
have it to overcome. This trend is supported in most
similar races and not just this one and a last time out
Fall is not a profile you want in this sort of race. Both
L´AVENTURE and SEA DIVA are out as mares from 4m.


2008 – 13  9  10
2007 – 10  11 16
2006 – 19  10 14
2005 –  6   5    5
2004 – 24  19  20
2003 – 21  10  16
2002 – 14  9   8
2001 – 14  8  11
2000 –  5  10 15
1999 –  9  18  27
1998 – 10 10 17

This table shows how many Chase starts the
winner – second – third  had in recent years.
There was a winner in 2000 with 5 Chase
starts but no horse had less than that and
THATS RHYTHM has only four runs. I’d be
against him because of that and also against
TRICKY TRICKSTER who also has just Four
chase runs. TRICKY TRICKSTER comes from
a Novice Chase and No past winner of this
race did that. I think this pair might Fail.

I am against the horses that come from ordinary
Novice Chases. SOUND ACCORD does that and
is out as is THATS RHYTHM whose had only 4
chase starts and comes from a Beginners chase.

Last year was the first year that the winner had
never ran in Graded Class before. That was a 66/1
winner and I would be much happier if my horse
had previously ran in Graded Class before. This
puts me of HELLO BAY who hasnt a typical sort
of preparation anyway running very recently in
a lower class handicap. The last 11 year old to win
was in 1996 and all 48 since then lost. I think he
is beatable but I do think the fact he ran 4 days
ago may work in his favour and I am inclined to
shortlist him at the price. KING BARRY also lacks
Grade 1 form and has a Career high mark. I have
to wonder if OUT THE BLACK has the class as he
is an 11 year old and has no Graded Class at all.

Horses aged 7 have the worst record in recent years
with a 1-40 record and whilst not a good statistic I
dont want CHICARO as an exposed 7 year old who
is down from 4m races. If you look at the 64 races
at this time of year No exposed 7 year old won any
of those races. WEST END ROCKER is also a 7 year
old. He comes from a Novice Chase which worries
me.  No past winner of this came from a Novice
Chase. In 64 other races only 1 horse managed
to do it. WEST END ROCKER  has just 5 chase runs
and is a 1st season chaser and has no Graded form
at all and I didnt want to be with him.

I dont have a problem with DEAR VILLEZ at all
and as he is unexposed I like his chance giving
weight to many Novice Chasers and inexperienced
horses that all have plenty to prove. Around 28/1
DEAR VILLEZ has been underestimated here

* CHIEF DAN GEORGE looks opposable
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* No past winner of this race did that
* In 64 other races only 1 managed it (1-34)
* That was Narrow Water in the 2001 Eider Chase
* He looks inexperienced with 5 chase starts
* He is a First season chaser
* I see this as a problem coming from a Novice race
* He’s a small horse which doesnt fill me with confidence
* The only time he ran in a chase at Ayr he flopped
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE wouldnt be my choice

* MERIGO won the Eider Chase last time out
* He is 8lbs higher in this race
* No past winner came from the Eider Chase
* MERIGO has no Graded form another problem
* He is a horse that will want the ground soft
* Overall his profile does have Flaws in it



* NINE DE SIVOLA was 2nd in the 2007 renewal
* He had a 10lbs lower mark but it was a good run
* Not least after running 2nd in the Irish National
* He comes from the 4m Chase at Cheltenham
* Thats one race I am fine with as a trial
* Stormez was 2nd in that before coming 2nd here
* Old Benny was 4th in this having won that race last year
* NINE DE SIVOLA has been laid out all year for this
* HELLO BUD could be worth chancing
* A Win 4 days ago could work two ways
* Given so many have poor profiles I’ll risk him



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