The Derby Epson 4.00

9/4 Carlton House, 4/1 Recital, 11/2 Pour Moi, 13/2 Seville
10/1 Native Khan, 16/1 Ocean War, 16/1 Vadamar
25/1 Masked Marvel, 25/1 Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee
100/1 Pisco Sour, Marhaba Malyoon, 500/1 Castlemorris King.

My quick thoughts on the Derby.

The Derby always gets confusing as you read and hear positives and negatives for everything.
Throw in the injury scare for the favourite – Two Aidan O’Brien horses hard to split and a
French horse thats carrying serious confidence.
Just for the record there is a reasonably strong draw bias here based on the following.

* Epsom has 25 races since 2005
* Thats 25 races with between 10 and 14 runners like today
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a poor 1-70 record
* Horses drawn 13 or more were 0-18
* Horses drawn 4-12 are the best places
* Horses drawn 5-11 come out best
* Horses drawn 5-11 won 22 of the 25 races

He may win and I was impressed with his win at York but I am opposing
CARLTON HOUSE on stamina doubts.
I dont want a horse from a Mile like NATIVE KHAN especially without a
good draw. RECITAL throws up a dilemma with his ungainly
action but he will be a different horse today. I think this will come down to
RECITAL or POUR MOI one being the saver.

Selection – RECITAL 11/2 Ladbrokes Blue Squareuare bet365
Saver – POUR MOI  you can get 13/2 Coral and VC

NB betfred are running a very good concession on this race
of offering losing stakes back if Carlton House wins the Derby.
That’s a reasonably generous perk and may swing me to stake there
possibly during the shows as their early odds are a bit tight on the above.

A note to each way backers amongst you bet365 and William Hill are offering 1/3 for a place.

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday December 13th

No Bets Today

We have lost Cheltenham after an unscheduled inspection
this morning and thats robbed the message of several good
previews and possible bets. Very dissapointing as it was
a mouth watering card. As Lingfield has also been lost as
well there really has not been much I could offer today so
I am afraid its a quiet Saturday looking at a handful of the Southwell
races and no advised bets. The weather has won today and turned the
day into a poor racing day.

If you need an interest today

SOUTHWELL 1.15

13/8 Savaronola, 5/2 Eureka Moment, 3/1 Colourful Move, 10/1 Piermarini, 14/1 Jayyid, 16/1 Monaadi, 100/1 Sweet Seville.

This is a 12f maiden for horses aged 3 and 4 and it forces a guess as so many of these are hard to beat.
I’d look to oppose the Curley Leisure horse SAVARONOLA.
He looks to have been over estimated like most of his connections runners.
I dont like the fact he has been hurdling. I think there is a stamina doubt.
His sire has never bred a 12f winner yet and a long absence doesnt help.
I dont want a horse like COLOURFUL MOVE as he was sold for just £800 recently and that gives
volumes away about both his soundness and ability.
The big priced  Monaadi and Sweet Seville look out of their depth .PIERMARINI is out having been hammered in a claiming race.

I could only bet EUREKA MOMENT or JAYYID who were 3rd and 4th in the same maiden last time.
EUREKA MOMENT would be my choice.

Best Current Odds 11/4 Ladbrokes, Tote , Blue Squareuare

Posted under horse racing tips