I am no fan of Champions dayat Ascot
as races have been borrowed or stolen from other
tracks, run at different times of the season often
upgraded and that corrupts my angles and makes
it more difficult. I have done what I can however
and have found one for the free blog that looks a
touch over priced.

A s c o t   1.50

9/4 Opinion Poll, 5/2 Fame And Glory, 7/2 Times Up
16/1 Motrice, 20/1 Colour Vision, 25/1 Chiberta King
25/1 Darley Sun, 25/1 Nehaam, 33/1 Eternal Heart
40/1 Polly4s Mark.

This 2m Group 3 race is actually the Jockey Club Cup
which is always run at Newmarket. It has been stolen
by Ascot to start their Champions Day card. Whether
any trends hold up because of this I dont know. There
are only mixed angles here anyway. This race has been
dominated by horses coming from the Doncaster Cup
last time out. An incredible 11 of the last 20 winners
of this race came from that race. Any horse that ran
elsewhere last time comes out badly because this trial
race has dominated the race. Today OPINION POLL
and MOTRICE come from this trial. Against these 2
are the fact no 5 year olds like OPINION POLL won
from that race and no filly like MOTRICE did either
so its complicated. FAME AND GLORY comes here
from a 14f race and horses doing that have not done
that well. TIMES UP has to be considered but he has
never won a Group race before the both his main two
rivals have won Group 1-2 races between them. I feel
I should stay with the Doncaster Cup horses despite a
few reservations given above. Because of that and the
race moving to Ascot I see a shortlist of two horses.

OPINION POLL- MOTRICE

I wouldn’t rule MOTRICE out. She started favourite
for this race last year but was only 3yo filly and she
did well to finish second. This year she is fresher and
older and comes from the best trial race. She has not
got much to find with OPINION POLL who was just
1.5 lengths ahead of her last time. That day I had her
as a negative for various reasons. She cant be that far
behind OPINION POLL and given that she is 14/1 I
have to see her as value having started 7/4 in this last
year. I see OPINION POLL as a good saver. Maybe a
good place only bet as well as he should be right there
and easily makes the shortlist. Given the prices I feel
we should try and attack the better priced option here.

Selection – MOTRICE 14/1 +  Each Way

14/1 at 1/4 odds available at bet365 William Hill & PaddyPower

Nb beware a few other miserly bookmakers  only offer 1/5 th odds

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Some quick thoughts on L e i c e s t e r   3.20

* This is a Fillies Handicap just short of 10f
* Leicester has 3 past renewals of this race
* There are 76 similar races elsewhere
* Noted all 3 winners of this race had at least 4 runs that year
* Noted there were several here with just 1 run this year
* In 76 races I found 4 winners with just one run that year
* None had 13 or more runs and KEN4S GIRL fails that
* Dont like her aged 7 with 1 run and a career high mark
* GALE GREEN – GOLDEN DELICIOUS are wrong types
* No horse won with 1 run this year from 8f or shorter
* EVENING DRESS fails that
* HAYAKU also fails that as well
* BALLETLOU doesnt interest me first time out
* Horses aged 4 with 13 + runs won 10 races
* None had just 1-2-3 runs that year (0-22)
* ASHKALARA fails that and wouldnt be my choice
* SING SWEETLY technically fails that same angle
* I would ignore that as she has been shaping well
* SING SWEETLY could be the forgotten horse here
* She is unsafe but she is far too big at 16/1
* COSMIC MOON is 3 and drops from a 12f race
* The only 3yo’s doing that had more runs that season

S h o r t l i s t

* NIGHT LILY is exposed and comes from 8f
* Not a good record from similar horses
* None won without a run in the past 2 weeks
* She also has to prove she stays this far
* She is well handicapped and well raced this year
* That counts for plenty so she is shortlistable
* BOLLIN DOLLY is not right statistically aged 8 from 12f
* No horse aged 6 or more won coming from 12f
* She did win the race last year and is well handicapped
* She is also well raced this year
* Those factors get her on the shortlist
* SING SWEETLY is shortlistable for earlier reasons
* APACHE GLORY won a 3yo handicap last time
* With 5-6 runs and 46 runs this year she is like 2 winners
* APACHE GLORY is a positive

SELECTION

APACHE GLORY – Win Bet 6/1 betfred s james Coral
SING SWEETLY – Win Bet 16/1 bet365 William Hill

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWMARKET 1.50

victor chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way bet365 -  betfred – Ladbrokes – s james

Posted under horse racing tips

Thanks for the positive feedback on last weekends 18/1 winner of the St Wilfred.  Nice to see a few of you re investing winnings in a full membership.

Another longish shot today for you.

CHESTER 2.20

Totepool Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  6f18y

9/2 Tyfos, 11/2 Bahamian Lad, 11/2 Lucky Dan, 8/1 Luscivious 8/1 Roker Park, 8/1 Victorian Bounty, 12/1 Falasteen 12/1 Ursula, 14/1 Indian Trail, 14/1 Kingswinford
16/1 Conry, 20/1 Frognal, 20/1 Great Charm, 20/1 Methaaly.

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses. You want to avoid the high draws as you will know. The higher you go the safer it will be.  I would avoid horses drawn 11 and higher. METHAALY GREAT CHARM – INDIAN TRAIL and FALASTEEN have to go. I don’t like CONRY with 1 run this season. If you look at all exposed 4 year olds that come from 5f races the only winners in these races ran within 2 weeks. Those that did not were 0-33 and thats why I’d oppose LUCKY DAN. Exposed 4 year olds coming from 5f races struggled anyway and the only ones not only had a
recent race they all finished 1st or 2nd last time. Those beaten a length or more were 1-92 telling me FROGNAL is beatable and I am against him. LUSCIVIOUS won a 5f race last time. I was not convinced with him. Certainly no horse won again at 6f without a run within 2 weeks and I felt he lacked the right profile. If you look at Exposed Males that come from 6f handicaps and have a break of over a Month they struggled. Those with under 9 races
that season were 1-106. VICTORIAN BOUNTY fails that and
none were as lightly raced as he is this year. BAHAMIAN LAD won a 6f handicap last time. There were 6 exposed 5 year olds that did that but the ones that failed to run within 2 weeks were  0-13 and the evidence is that he’d be better with a recent run.

TYFOS – Scrapes on shortlist – worried about handicap mark.
ROKER PARK – Well treated but unsafe – Needs more runs

SELECTION – URSULA 14/1

Nb best price at free blog posting time now 12/1 at various bookmakers inc Coral VC s james bet365

She may be a Filly with an absence but she is unexposed and I’ve found 2 similar winners like her. She could be one of those that  either flops or wins. Statistically she is fine. I’d have liked a little better draw but its not impossible to win from there and she will love the ground and has hit form now and could impove again. I would consider a small bet at a big price and have a saver as well perhaps on Roker Park from a better draw.

Posted under horse racing tips

HAYDOCK 2.55

betfred.COM OLD BOROUGH CUP
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)
(3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f

5/1 Kings Destiny, 6/1 Alanbrooke, 7/1 Hits Only Vic, 10/1
Chiberta King, 10/1 Yes Mr President, 12/1 Magicalmysterytour 12/1 Nemo Spirit, 14/1 Conquisto, 14/1 Precision Break, 16/1 Highland Legacy, 20/1 Gordonsville, 20/1 Lord Theo, 20/1 Som Tala, 20/1 Spring Jim, 25/1 Macorville, 33/1 Clear Reef 33/1 Hindu Kush.

This Old Borough Cup has 9 renewals and although
it has upgraded over the years in class its a good stats
race and I think we should be able to get this sorted.
I would advise you follow these trends in the race

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-51 record
* Every past winner had at least 4 runs that season
* Every past winner was aged 3-4-5
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-57)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-62)
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more
* Horses aged 4 or more coming from 12f or less are 0-43
* This leaves to a shortlist of 2 horses
* ALANBROOKE – KINGS DESTINY
* I think KING’S DESTINY stands out
* Look at horses aged 3 in this race from 12f races
* When they have between 5 and 8 career starts
* When they finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time out

3 year olds that have that profile had a 4-5 record in this
race. The 5 horses finished W W W 2 W and the only one
that didnt win finished second to one of the winners so he
couldnt have won. Thats the outstanding profile in this race and I am placing KINGS DESTINY in the new statistically strong horses paragraph.

SELECTION

KINGS DESTINY – Win Bet  11/2 at Blue Square, CanBet , bet365

Posted under horse racing tips