RIPON 2.45

EUROPEAN BREEDERS´ FUND FILLIES´
HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80)1m1f170y

7/2 Antigua Sunrise, 7/2 Cascata, 9/2 Atabaas Allure,
9/2 Cwm Rhondda, 7/1 Kaloni, 8/1 Sparkling Crystal,
10/1 Island Music, 20/1 Tres Froide, 33/1 Shosolosa.

This is a Fillies Handicap just short of 10 furlongs. I have looked at the 12 renewals of this race and all 44 similar races in August. My negatives are these. CASCATA has to go with 3 runs and just a couple this year. I couldnt find a winner who had a similar profile.  CWM RHONDDA wouldnt be my first  choice as older horses with absences struggled and I didnt like  her profile. ISLAND MUSIC and TRES FROIDE would also  be negatives as well as no 4 year old came up in trip from an  8f race last time out. SHOSOLOSA is outclassed and I would  avoid these five horses in this race. This leaves a shortlist of Four. I felt they were all interesting in one way or another
without being exceptional but if I had to pick two it would be ANTIGUA SUNRISE and ATABAAS ALLURE

ATABAAS ALLURE has just come from Goodwood when
she couldnt dominate a Class 2 handicap. I dont mind that
as she was hardly beaten far and its a race that has provided a past winner of this race before and her form stands up to scrutiny. I see her trying to make all here and on a front runners track she may be able to run these into the ground.

I think ANTIGUA SUNRISE is a slightly better horse but
is she a better horse at short of 10 furlongs ? She won two on the bounce in May and June and looked progressive. It  was no surprise she lost two runs ago stepped up in trip when  statistically weak and running over a trip thats beyond her.  She ran very well last time out considering she was a big negative coming down half a mile in trip. Her runs at this  trip all came before her improvement and whilst its probably a bit on the short side I think she will cope with it but its not a front runners track and ATABAAS ALLURE could well have flown and could be hard to catch.

SELECTION

ATABAAS ALLURE 5/1 each way

Posted under horse racing tips

Three Account Bets so far this season.

WON 3-1

SECOND 6-1

WON 2-1

The latest Account Bet winning Saturday very easily.
LINGFIELD 12.00

11/4 River Thames, 9/2 Muktasb, 7/1 Afton View, Welcome Approach, 10/1 Our Fugitive, Rightcar Lewis, 12/1 Shot To Fame, 14/1 Bronte´s Hope, Now You See Me, 20/1 Gambling Jack, Loyal Royal, 25/1 Blue Zenith.

SELECTION – RIVER THAMES

In this 6f handicap I dont see RIVER THAMES being beaten. I think he has worked himself into a race where he is simply much better class than the horses that occupy this sort of race. I would have to rule out several. RIGHTCARD LEWIS is out as a filly from 5f. BLUE ZENITH is out from a seller. Several had questionable fitness like NOW YOU SEE ME, GAMBLING JACK and LOYAL ROYAL. I want to oppose the Marcus Tregonnning horse BRONTE’S HOPE an inexperienced filly down in trip. I dont think SHOT TO FAME will show his best form here over 6f and feel he will be caught out. WELCOME APROACH isnt a horse that likes the hustle and bustle and here drawn in the middle I dont see him running his best over this diatance. If I had done a shortlist it may have read like Muktasb – River Thames -Afton View. However I cant do one as I think it should have just 1 horse on it. RIVER THAMES looks a really good bet to me. Hurt badly by the draw at Doncaster last time over 7f he ran far better than it looks. He has back class that most of these would die for. He only has to give MUKTASB a pound in weight yet RIVER THAMES comes from two 0-84 class races and MUKTASB comes here beaten in 0-58 races. MUKTASB has no back class at all. The only time he has ran in class 4 handicaps before he was an outsider and well beaten. By contrast RIVER THAMES has won two and ran in far better grade. In his 34 race career RIVER THAMES has never been in class 6 before. Yes he is quirky but he is dropping into a 0-60 race and he has to be better class than that.

Posted under Main Content

This Saturday I have a sample from the analysis section of the Full Member Service

NB This is not a full account bet

DONCASTER  3:10

ToteSPORT NOVEMBER HANDICAP (C2) (3yo+)  1m4f

5/1 Electrolyser, 11/2 Presvis, 8/1 The Betchworth Kid, 10/1 Menwaal, 12/1 First Avenue,  Magicalmysterytour, 14/1 Tastahil, 16/1 Night Crescendo, 20/1 Group Captain,  Tropical Strait,  Young Mick, 25/1 Ajaan,  Hits Only Vic,  Mull Of Dubai, 33/1 Carte Diamond,  CelticSpirit,  Cold Quest,  Ladies Best, 50/1 Acropolis,  Big Robert,  Dunaskin, Greek Envoy,  Wicked Daze.

I have some detailed trends in the November Handicap. I will go through this field quickly and finish off with some horses that are strong statistically and that make any shortlist. I dont want the Topweight PRESVIS in this race. I think his weight is a problem. He fails a serious number of trends in the race not least as a lighter
raced older horse and He is up in trip as well and he simply is not the type  that has won this race and win lose or draw on my angles based on the last 20 renewals of this race PRESVIS had a very poor profile in my view. NIGHT CRESCENDO only fails one of my trends in that no exposed horse or indeed any 4 year old won last
time out and whilst there will be many horses with weaker profiles I didnt want to give him  the benefit of the doubt. YOUNG MICK is in exactly the same boat failing some similar angles. MENWAAL doesnt have the correct preperation for me and has plenty against him and I felt MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR also had a bad profile  and failed several important angles. There are many of these that just dont have good profiles. You will see from the list of trends that its very important to come into this race in form and running well. So many of these dont do that and I would include the following -

BIG ROBERT – CARTE DIAMOND – TROPICAL STRAIT
GREEK ENVOY- GROUP CAPTAIN – HITS ONLY VIC
AJAAN – LADIES BEST – MULL OF DUBAI -  CELTIC SPIRIT
WICKED DAZE

COLD QUEST has a horrible profile. Both ACROPOLIS and
DUNASKIN are  too old. TASTAHIL is just the wrong kind
of 4 year old in this just like the favourite is. Its very hard to judge THE BETCHWORTH KID as he has an unusual profile but I cant find a horse that won this or a similar race at this time of year and my impression is that if a 3 year old was going to come back from a 14f race it would be both lighter raced than he is and would have run better in that race. That said I do think THE BETCHWORTH KID is one of the more interesting runners and I think he is one of the best 3 or 4 runners in the race I feel the same about FIRST AVENUE as well.  FIRST AVENUE  came out quite similar to the 2007 and 1992 winners and the only
angle he fails is a very forgiveable one. Whether he has the resolutionor not I dont know and I dont like cheekpieces on my bet in a race such as this.

STRONGEST PROFILE

ELECTROLYSER

I think this horse has the best profile. He has just 4 runs but he is a very similar type to 2004 winner  CARTE DIAMOND  who also had 4 runs and interestingly came from the same Leicester 3 year old handicap as ELECTROLYSER does. Trip and Ground are fine and I think he has a great chance off a light weight.

Current Best price at time of blog post 4/1 at CentreBet and Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips