G O O D W O O D

It is not so Glorious today as the meeting shows its teeth and the full force of its bite today with a Savaging card.
I have no choice but to try and do the Stewards Cup today as that’s high on everybodys list of races to
Bet in but I wont be spending a great deal of time of this card today as its pretty ferocious.

The 2.30pm is Listed race for 3 year olds over a Mile and it’s got a long history.
I thought it was intersting horses coming from 3yo handicaps were 0-24.
FREEFORADAY looks one to avoid doing that. TREADWELL comes
from an all aged  handicaps and the 2 winners doing that were less exposed
and had a more recent run. LONG LASHES is a debutant and there were
2 debutants but they were Males with 2 runs and she is a female with 4 runs.
FIELD OF DREAMS has a chance and I’d see both these as a little unsafe
but possible winners. I respect CRITICAL MOMENTS who should run well.
Unclear as yet whether yesterdays handicap winner SEA LORD will run again
and if he does he has to be respected with yesterdays run sure to either improve his chance of kill it.
The one that interested  me most was DESERT MYTH as many winners dropped down
from 10f Conditions races and they were all very lightly raced  and a stable
with a good record in this I like DESERT MYTH

GOODWOOD 3.40

Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

8/1 Genki, 9/1 Enact, 9/1 Palace Moon, 10/1 Jonny Mudball
12/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, Noverre To Go, 14/1 Striking Spirit 16/1 Johannes,
16/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 16/1 Parisian Pyramid 16/1 Secret Asset,
20/1 Castles In The Air, 25/1 Hitchens,  25/1 Jimmy Styles, 25/1 Knot In Wood,
33/1 Evens And Odds 33/1 Ingleby Lady, 33/1 Prohibit, 33/1 Run For The Hills 33/1
Sir Gerry, 40/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 40/1 Prime Exhibit 40/1 Singeur, 50/1 Advanced,
Ancien Regime, 50/1 Edge Closer 50/1 Sonny Red, 66/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Stewards Cup in a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* There has been 19 renewals since 1991
* Exposed horses won 5 of the 19 renewals
* Those with under 6 runs that year were 1-117
* Those aged 4 were 1-59 and he had Group 3 class form
* Those exposed with form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 were 0-71
* Those exposed absent over a month were 0-59
* Those exposed from a 5f race were just 1-125
* Those exposed with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-46
* Horses from 5f struggle but only 1 runner does that today
* Horses aged 6 or more have a  2-182 record in this race
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 0-92
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-125
* Those that came from 6f or shorter were 0-162
* Horses aged 3 have a poor 1-68 record in this race
* Horses aged 3 with 9 + career runs were 0-48
* Horses that come from conditions races struggle
* They have a 1-100 record in this race
* Horses that come from Listed or Group class are 0-67
* Horses that lost by 6 or more lengths last time were 2-165
* None of these were absent over a Month or came from 7f
* None of these had 1-2-3-4-5 runs this season (0-84)
* Fillies have a 1-61 record in this race
* That was a 4yo with under 7 runs and 3 runs that year

POSSIBLES

NOVERRE TO GO - Has an acceptable profile
JONNY MUDBALL - Just enough to shortlist
PALACE MOON - Reasonable chance

SELECTION

STRIKING SPIRIT

The 3 Possibles above have decent chances but none of them
are quite right statistically and have minor flaws. Whilst I can say the same
about STRIKING SPIRIT he is a whisker away from being perfect and
I think he has as good a chance to win this as any. He was only beaten
6 lengths in last years race on ground too soft when he went off too fast
and I think he was badly drawn last year.
This year he has proved himself to be  a Top notch sprint handicapper.
He’d be my choice at 16/1.

16/1 paying out on 5 places available at bet365 and s james

Posted under Major Horse Races

Best Bet today is ICELANDIC 4/1 in the Doncaster 2.40.
He won the race last year and I think he can do it again in
an easier renewal full of negatives. Going with him only as
a suggestion today. I did think about a Full Bet on him but
the stable are just coming out of a virus and havent had a
winner since April. Even with that worry I still feel he is
going to win this race but I would have liked to have seen
a few more runners and winners from the stable. I thought
about an each way bet but I think he is a better win bet. I
did think about splitting a bet with two win bets and the
double with PEPE SIMO in the first at Wincanton but he
is odds on now and I would only have done that if he’d
have been bigger than evens. In the end on what is a hard
Saturday without any all weather support I think the best
thing to do is stay with ICELANDIC as a mention. He is
the one horse in the race that I could bet. Think he wins.

Doncaster 2.40

ICELANDIC 4/1

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T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

DONCASTER 2.40

Best Odds Guaranteed At Totesport.com Wentworth Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Sir Gerry, 4/1 Icelandic, 5/1 Prescription, 6/1 Able Master 8/1 Desert Phantom,
10/1 Festoso, 12/1 Fullandby, 20/1 Arthur´s Edge, 20/1 Crystal Moments,
25/1 Lovely Thought, 33/1 Saxford 50/1 Protector, 500/1 Vanadium.

* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 16 renewals of this race
* There’s been 35 similar races elsewhere at this time of year
* VANADIUM cant win at the weights
* I see the following horses as weak statistically
* All past winners were aged 7 or lower
* PROTECTOR is older than any past winner
* All past winners had at least 3 runs that season
* I would ignore all horses that havent had that
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that absent 398 days
* His trainer states he is very burly and will need the run
* He wont be placed if he is as unfit as he suggests
* SAXFORD fails that and looks badly underraced
* SIR GERRY also fails this with 1 run this year
* SIR GERRY also has a 178 day absence to overcome
* His trainer says he will come on a lot for the run
* SIR GERRY has also downgraded stables this year
* I dont see him as fit enough to win
* Horses from 5f races have struggled
* Only 1 past winner came from 7f as well
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-67
* FESTOSO fails that and looks opposable
* Hard to win a Listed race on the back of a poor last run
* I dont see an older filly like her overcoming that
* 3 year olds have the worst record
* Those aged 3 with 7 + career runs were 1-60
* ABLE MASTER fails that and has 14 runs
* Thats quite an exposed 3 year old
* ABLE MASTER also has to come down in trip
* Only 1 past winner dropped in trip to win this
* No 3 year old like him managed it in any similar races
* CRYSTAL MOMENTS has the same problem
* She is another 3yo coming down in distance
* She looks too exposed to be doing that
* LOVELY THOUGHT fails the same statistic
* She is not going to win an all aged Listed race
* Not coming from a Class 5 handicap for 3 year olds

* SHORTLIST

* FULLANDBY - PRESCRIPTION - ICELANDIC

* I am confident enough that one of these should win
* FULLANDBY and PRESCRIPTION come from handicaps
* They come from Class 3 handicaps
* I looked at the 35 similar races to this
* There were 8 winners that came from handicaps
* All 8 winners came from Class 2 handicaps
* Those that came from handicaps in lower grades were 0-40
* This suggests that this pair could fall short of whats required
* I think you can give them a better chance than that though
* FULLANDBY won easily just 4 days ago and is very fit
* FULLANDBY has ran in 8 Listed -Group Class races before
* All he has to show for it is one third place
* He usually gets found out at this level
* I think this is his best chance of winning one
* I think FULLANDBY will place
* I think he is one of the best place only bets today
* PRESCRIPTION also comes from a Class 3 handicap
* Statistically thats not really enough
* If you take the 35 similar Listed class sprints
* All 35 winners had all ran in at least Class 2 before
* PRESCRIPTON has not done that yet
* Every horse in this race has done that except two
* PRESCRIPTION and Arthurs Edge have yet to do that
* PRESCRIPTION is respected as he finally gets her ground
* Purely on her profile she ought to find 1-2 too good

SELECTION

ICELANDIC - Win Bet
FULLANDBY - Saver or place bet

ICELANDIC won this last year and is solid again. His
trainer has been savaged by the Virus all year and has
given a note of caution because of this. He states …..

“The year has been a disaster. We are probably
over the worst but whether Icelandic is 100 per cent I
don’t know. Soft ground will be in his favour”

That looks the only obstacle to him winning. He won
this easily last year from the same stall.  On Ratings
this is a much weaker race. This race on average official
ratings is 8lbs weaker than last years race.
This is a horse that hasnt been fit or right all year.
His last run at Ascot was much better than it looked.
He wasnt fancied. He was facing a 55 day break and its hard
for a 7 year old to win a Group Race when facing that absence.
The race he ran in last time was a much better class race than
this where every horse was rated 101 or more. He ran much better
than it looked staying on without being given a hard race
and not having the run of the race at all. He should be at
his peak today. Older horses have an excellent record in
this race. Horses like him aged 7 are 3-7 in this contest.
I think ICELANDIC will peak today and win this again.
I see FULLANDBY as the danger and its up to you if
you want saver on him around 7/1 or want a place bet
on him instead as a saver. I expect ICELANDIC to win.

Posted under horse racing tips