Cheltenham 2014 – Day 2

Mathematician 1840

No Account Bet 

Day 2 of the Festival usually the quietest day for
bets and no account bet today.  I think we have
to be very realistic. The last 3 races on the card
are next to impossible. Tactically it makes sense
to turn these races down and use that time for a
lot of serious races tomorrow. Therefore today is
a 4 race message as only 4 races can be sorted.

I will give my Best Bet from the message which
will send a shiver down the spine of many of you.

My own personal best bet is a variation of this
bet but as this is in the “Without the favourite”
market I can’t go with it as some won’t get on.

 
Today’s Best Bet
 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham Selections

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4

Cheltenham 2.05 – DON COSSACK 14/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 3.20 – SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham 4.00 – BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet
Cheltenham 4.00 – BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 

 

Today’s Bets

 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 
Obviously choice is limited from 4 races. I would
not put FAUGHEEN up at a short price but I could
easily have done something with Sire De Grugy,

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1

I did consider the each way double
I also considered 2 win bets and an each way double

My own personal biggest bet today will be this

Cheltenham 3.20

Without The Favourite Market

SOMERSBY 12/1- 14/1 Each Way

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals Paddy Power Chandler
10/1 bet365 9/1 Boyles

Obviously this is “Un-tippable” in a Novelty market
as most people would not get a bet on so Instead
I will go with the following as my best bet today.

Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Saver Bets

Just to clarify the issue with Savers. When I suggest
a saver the purpose is to make sure you break level
on the bet if the saver wins. The main selection will
be the horse to try and get the profit. The saver has
the job of recovering stakes if the main bet loses.

 

Generic Statistics
            
* No Horse Qualifies today
* Partly due to no handicap chases

 

 

Y e s t e r d a y ‘s  S u m m a r y

Very interesting day full of highs and lows with the
worst of it being two account losers. I pointed out
that this was always possible and that the winners
may come in the other races and they did. Happy
enough with a message that went P L L W W L P.

I was pleased we had the Supreme Novice winner
much as that was only as the saver. With Hindsight
I should have gone with the winner but my angles
worked out well and pleased me. Dodging Bullets
could only managed 4th but ran well enough. The
bet on TOUR DES CHAMPS 16/1 Each Way looked
good as he was bowling along nicely in front with
plenty in trouble behind. The problem is that it’s a
hard thing to make all and he paid a bit and then
dropped back. What was incredible was he came
back at them and stayed on and was only beaten
a Neck for 4th place. He was that close to Placing
that it felt unlucky. The Generic Statistics were so
disappointing in the race it was a double blow for
us. Maybe the unusually fast ground was the main
reason those angles did not work out. Overall the
race was a disaster. It got much better with JEZKI
winning the Champion Hurdle at a big price. The
horse has been on my radar for weeks it was just
annoying I couldn’t be more confident. QUEVEGA
was brilliant. We made money on the race which
was the important thing in a low key race. Sadly
jubilation turned to misery with FOXROCK despite
travelling like a really good horse he either paid
for one or two mistakes or didn’t get the trip. The
combination of both killed him. ATTAGLANCE was
a desperately unlucky second. At least we won a
bit each way but he would have won that race if
his jockey hadn’t gone for a gap that wasn’t there.

So overall a 2-0 account bet day is disappointing
but we had winners and no luck at all especially
Tour Des Champs failing to place by a neck after
making all the running and Attaglance robbed by
a bad ride. Given how hard this meeting is I think
we came out of yesterday with plenty of credit.

 

 

P R O F I L E S    &   P R E V I E W S

 

C h e l t e n h a m   1.30

Neptune Investment Management Novices4 Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices4 Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

9/4 Faugheen, 7/2 Red Sherlock, 6/1 Rathvinden
12/1 Lieutenant Colonel, 14/1 Ballyalton
20/1 Cup Final, 20/1 Fennell Bay, 25/1 Killala Quay,
0/1 Cocktails At Dawn, 50/1 Cole Harden, 50/1 Knock House
50/1 Shanahan4s Turn, 66/1 Creepy, 100/1 Twelve Roses
200/1 Midnight Thunder.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* Look at the past 10 winners of this race
* They had achieved the following Racing Post Ratings
* Thats the best ratings achieved before they ran in this race
* 156 153 145 161 158 136 147 146 145 148
* 9 of the last 10 winners had a figure of at least 145
* Only Fiveforthree (2008) had not done that
* FENNELL BAY’s best figure is a measly 126
* FENNELL BAY is a 5 year old with 2 hurdle starts
* Miles to find on the numbers I couldn’t touch him
* BALLYALTON has only done a 136 ratings
* He is a 7 year old not the best age either
* LIEUTENANT COLONEL has achieved a 139 RPR
* That means 9 of the last 10 winners achieved more
* I like that he has improved on each performance
* He does have quite a bit to find with a few of these
* KILLALA QUAY – I don’t want a 7yo pulling up last time
* CUP FINAL is a 5yo with 2 hurdle runs
* All the big guns have more hurdle runs
* That should catch him out and he is rejected

Shortlist

* RED SHERLOCK has won all of his 6 races
* His best performance was last time and he is 2-2 here
* I do have some concerns though
* He had a hard race in heavy ground last time out
* I would be worried that took too much out of him
* He is reported to swish his tail once whipped

* RATHVINDEN was 2nd behind Red Sherlook last time
* He had an interrupted preparation before that race
* He doesn’t have much to find as he is 3lbs better off
* Looks a solid each chance with two flaws
* He is not the stable number 1. That is Faugheen
* He is also not the biggest of horses
* RATHVINDEN could easily place here

* FAUGHEEN is Willie Mullins Number 1
* He is unbeaten 3 of which were in hurdles
* Clearly a high class prospect to be considered
 
Conclusion

I think FAUGHEEN has more improvement than
Red Sherlock and is the most likely winner. It’s
tempting to go with RED SHERLOCK each way
given there are issues with FAUGHEEN not least
fluency in his jumping. You could argue a good
case for FAUGHEEN in an each way double too.
There are sorts of staking options here such as
a split stake bet with FAUGHEEN to win and the
place bet on RATHVINDEN. I think we are spoilt
for choice with staking options and much has to
depend on what sort of bets and risk you prefer.
FAUGHEEN – RED SHERLOCK – RATHVINDEN are
my 1-2-3 in that order. I will go with FAUGHEEN

Selection

FAUGHEEN

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

RSA Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

 5/1 Ballycasey, 6/1 Smad Place, 13/2 Morning Assembly
7/1 Carlingford Lough, 8/1 Corrin Wood, 10/1 Don Cossack
10/1 Le Bec, 10/1 Sam Winner, 12/1 O4faolains Boy
14/1 Many Clouds, 16/1 Annacotty, 20/1 Black Thunder
25/1 Just A Par, 33/1 Gevrey Chambertin, 50/1 Samingarry.

* The RSA Chase is a Grade 1 over an extended 3m
* Just a few background statistics to show a certain type
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* They all had at least 3 runs that season as well
* Every winner since 1991 ran within 53 days
* The last 49 winners all had a run in the same calendar year
* The last 7 winners were aged 7
* Horses aged 6 have underperformed over the years
* Only 2 have won since as far back as 1978

* ANNACOTTY  is a 6 year old which is a problem
* He technically is not 6 for another month anyway
* The weights suggest he will struggle anyway
* I couldn’t have him from a Novice Handicap
* GEVREY CHAMBERTIN is 6 and far too inexperienced
* LE BEC is not 6 for another 2 months
* With a nasty absence he has to go
* SAMINGARRY is outclassed
* JUST A PAR is too inexperienced and lacks the class
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* BALLYCASEY only has 2 Chase starts a serious worry
* I do not like that lack of inexperience over fences
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* BALLYCASEY only has 6 National Hunt runs
* He just looks short  of experience to me
* 19 of the last 21 winners had at least 9 career starts
* BALLYCASEY is not for me with just 6
* There must be a chance he won’t stay anyway
* His 4 runs over 3m or more were all defeats
* Admittedly 3 were in Point to Points but it’s a worry
* SMAD PLACE has placed in a World Hurdle
* That was one of 7 times he has lost in Grade 1 races
* His 3 Chase runs were all in Non Graded races
* The last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SMAD PLACE lacks that and has a questionable profile
* With 19 runs he’d be the most exposed winner in years
* SMAD PLACE doesn’t do it for me
* Not with a recent heavy ground win
* BLACK THUNDER’s profile is not that bad
* Certainly as good as you could hope for a 25/1 chance
* Held on form there look pacier types against him
* Not keen on his size or his prospects on the ground
* We know the last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SAM WINNER does not have that
* CORRIN WOOD does not have that
* SAM WINNER has run on the flat which isn’t ideal
* He looks a tough more exposed than would be ideal
* Will like the ground but a lack of graded chase form worries me
* CORRIN WOOD also lacks graded chase form
* The other strike against him is his absence
* Longer than any winner since 1991 albeit not by much
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH unseated rider last time out
* Thats not a good sign at all
* The last 26 winners of this race were 1-2-3 last time out
* He is also 8 which isn’t the best age
* He has 19 runs which is more than any recent winner
* He has 13 Chase starts which sounds too many
* Recent winners had 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 Chase runs
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH may not be the right type
* MANY CLOUDS is a decent enough chaser
* I don’t mind his profile but he is not my first choice
* Over trips of 19f 20f 21f he is W 2 W 2 W W
* Over trips of 22f or more he is 2 2 PU
* I just don’t like his better record over shorter
* Not keen on his trainer or his record in big fields either
* O4FAOLAINS BOY won the Reynoldstown last time
* That’s not the best of preparations winning that race
* A bit short on experience with 3 Chase runs with a Pulled Up
* Can’t be ruled out but I don’t see enough positives
* MORNING ASSEMBLY has a 73 day absence
* We know the last 49 winners ran in the same calendar year
* That absence is a negative about his profile
* He has never ran away from soft ground either
* These issues and no track form are the main worries
* Otherwise he looks a smart prospect
* DON COSSACK could go well if his jumping holds
* I like his profile and his recent race
* Many will assume he can’t reverse form with Ballycasey
* I wouldn’t be so sure over this 3m trip which
* DON COSSACK has won on good ground
* I see him as the value in the race

Selection

DON COSSACK 14/1

Each Way

 

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   3.20

BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

9/4 Sire De Grugy, 9/2 Captain Conan, 11/2 Arvika Ligeonniere
7/1 Baily Green, 10/1 Hinterland, 10/1 Kid Cassidy
12/1 Sizing Europe 14/1 Module, 14/1 Somersby
20/1 Special Tiara 25/1 Wishfull Thinking.

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 miles

* The form horse is clearly SIRE DE GRUGY
* He tops the Official ratings and Racing Post Ratings
* There are doubts if you want to oppose him
* He has never been to a Cheltenham Festival before
* That’s unusual and his Cheltenham form is questionable
* There is more than a suspicion this may not be his track
* His Jockey is talented but is hardly a positive
* Jamie Moore is 0-55 riding at the festival
* SIRE DE GRUGY has also had a busier season than I’d want
* The last few winners had the following runs that season
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* SIRE DE GRUGY has 5 runs this season
* That is more than the last 17 winners had
* I think there are plenty of doubts about him

* Horses aged 11 + rarely have the Speed to win.
* They did win in 2005 and 1977 but are best opposed
* The age of recent winners is as follows
* 9-9-9-6-5-6-8-11-7-9-8-8-9-10-10-7-8-7-8-8-8-9-8-9
* SIZING EUROPE wouldn’t interest me as a 12yo
* This race started in 1959 and only the 1977 winner was 12
* WISHFUL THINKING is 11 and makes limited appeal
* Horses aged 10 haven’t won since 1998

* BAILY GREEN has 21 previous Chase runs which is a lot
* Past winners had the following number of Chase starts
  7 7 9 13 12 8 9 8 22 8 11 18 23 4 24 12 11 11 18 14 9 15 14 8
* The last 8 winners had 7-13 Chase runs
* There are some before that with a similar number of runs
* He was 2nd in an Arkle so should be respected
* He comes here losing his last 9 races though
* Well beaten over hurdles last time doesn’t inspire either
* His 21 Chase runs produced a best 158 Racing Post Rating
* That should not be good enough to win
* There are horses in this race with better ratings last time
* Arvika Ligeonniere, Captain Conan, Sire De Grugy, Wishfull Thinking
* These 4 horses recorded better Racing Post Ratings last time out
* They had better ratings that BAILY GREEN has in 21 Chase starts
* I may be wrong in looking at this approach
* I appreciate the ratings are all under different circumstances
* It still puts me off BAILY GREEN in a Grade 1 off level weights

* HINTERLAND is a 6 year old
* It would worry me he has just 5 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 7 Chase starts
* That was the 1999 winner who had 4 Chase starts
* The 2007 winner was 6 but the hot favourite fell that year
* The last 6 year old to win before that was in 1973
* HINTERLAND – You don’t want a 6yo with just 5 Chase runs

* KID CASSIDY has to be given a chance
* His career best run has come over 2m at Cheltenham
* His last run was poor though not a good sign
* 30 of the last 32 winners were 1-2-3 last time out
* The only 2 that were not both fell
* No winners have won after such a poor run as he had

* MODULE – I just don’t see enough I like
* SPECIAL TIARA disappointed last time out
* I can forgive that on heavy ground in a small field
* He was beaten here in December over 2m
* He was 3rd behind Kid Cassidy and Sire De Grugy
* SPECIAL TIARA was really having his seasonal debut that day
* He’d fallen at the first on his first run of the year
* He has to improve but it’s not a huge amount to find

* ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE has the track to overcome
* 8 of his 9 career wins were going right handed
* His 2 Cheltenham runs were both well below expectations
* So much class I couldn’t rule him out
* There are too many doubts about track and ground

* CAPTAIN CONAN is the type to win at the Festival
* He looked like winning last years Jewson but didn’t stay
* This 2m distance could suit him best of all
* CAPTAIN CONAN has 6 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* CAPTAIN CONAN is 1 short of being ideal
* I can overlook that much as I’d prefer 7 Chase runs
* I also have to overlook just 1 run this season
* Past winners had the following runs that year
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* Only 8yo Flagship Uberalles has won with 1 run this year
* Said to be working well after a back injury
* I see him as a potential winner but I need to turn a blind eye
* To his 6 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
 

Part of me wants to go with CAPTAIN CONAN each way
and to ignore my concerns instead relying on the skills
of Nicky Henderson who is sure to have him close to his
best. Everyone knows ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE’s flaws but
surely 8/1 is a big price. Then I decided to review what
I feared most about SIRE DE GRUGY. I decided to isolate
2m Cheltenham performances on Racing Post Ratings.

Racing Post Ratings
Cheltenham runs only
2 Miles only
Since 2012

174 Sizing Europe
170 Sire De Grugy Sizing Europe
162 Kid Cassidy Wishful Thinking
161 Special Tiara
158 Baily Green
157 Wishful Thinking
155 Somersby
154 Captain Conan
147 Kid Cassidy

Sizing Europe has the best figure and joint 2nd best
which were recorded at the 2012 and 2013 Festivals.
I don’t want to go with him as a 12 year old but clear
2nd best is SIRE DE GRUGY with a course & distance
Racing Post Rating of 170 which is 8lbs higher than
all other runners. This leads me to think that there’s
no real case for saying he doesn’t like the track and
it will surely be difficult to rule him out of the 1-2-3.
It won’t be palatable to some but we are talking just
11 runners of which 4 are outsiders and 1/4 the odds.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 Each Way is a good bet

However

SOMERSBY is 16/1

SOMERSBY is also in the “Without the favourite” market

This is betting without SIRE DE GRUGY

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals Paddy Power Chandler
10/1 bet365
9/1 Boyles

Now I appreciate 10 years old is a bit older than ideal

I appreciate he doesn’t have the best record here and
it is not his course and you can argue he has had his
chance. But he was 2nd in an Arkle and placed in the
Supreme Novice. He has placed in a Grade 1 here as
well and he is effective. It’s not his ideal track but the
horse has some good runs here before.

Besides that people are saying Sire De Grugy doesn’t
like this track and Arvika Ligeonniere hates it as well.

No Sprinter Sacre. This must be the worst Champion
Chase for donkey’s years. He likes a small field and a
quicker surface as well. He surely must be the value

He won the Haldon Gold Cup just 3 runs ago

He was then 2nd in the Tingle Creek just behind Sire De Grugy

Last time he unseated rider but he was only 11/4 to beat
Sire De Grugy in that race and now he is much bigger.

Final Selection

“Without the favourite” market

SOMERSBY 12/1 or 14/1 Each Way

Anyone who can’t get on this market can
bet SOMERSBY each way 16/1 in this race.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   4.00

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase
(A Cross Country Chase)  (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m7f

4/1 Big Shu, 5/1 Balthazar King, 8/1 Sire Collonges
8/1 Star Neuville, 9/1 Love Rory, 10/1 Any Currency
11/1 Quantitativeeasing, 12/1 Bishopsfurze, 14/1 Sizing Australia
14/1 Uncle Junior, 16/1 Diamond Harry, 16/1 Quiscover Fontaine
20/1 A Stray Shot, 20/1 Duke Of Lucca, 25/1 Hey Big Spender
33/1 Sin Palo.

* The Cross Country Chase has 9 past renewals
* DIAMOND HARRY – I don’t think he stays this far
* LOVE RORY – I don’t want a 6 year old in these races
* He is not technically a 6 year old for a few more weeks anyway
* He won a Cross Country race at Punchestown last time
* He beat Big Shu that day but the latter needed the race
* He has no Cheltenham form and has too much to prove
* UNCLE JUNIOR is wrong as an out of form 13 year old
* STAR NEUVILLE doesn’t do it for me
* I don’t like him coming from a 2m 4f race
* Not with just 1 run this season
* The 9 past winners had the following Chase starts
* 7 13 17 48 11 15 14 16 30
* STAR NEUVILLE has only had 5 chase starts
* QUANTITATIVEEASING looks too risky
* Not sure he has the experience in this discipline
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE – Not for me on this ground
* BISHOPSFURZE fell on his cross country debut
* Not a good experience and the ground is faster than ideal
* His sire hasn’t yet bred a winner over 3m 2f or more
* He has yet to show this track suits him
* May win but he has plenty to prove
* SIZING AUSTRALIA is a past winner of this in 2011
* Not sure you can rule him out on ground he likes
* I just don’t want a 12 year old on drying ground
* He was well beaten in last years race
* SIRE COLLONGES – No killer stat to rule him out
* Far from convinced he is good enough though
* ANY CURRENCY has a 9 3 2 cross country record
* Should go well but I don’t think he fully stays this far
* He comes from a handicap chase. No winner did that
* I thought a place was more likely than a win

Shortlist
 
* BIG SHU won this race easily last season
* Huge player again but he is 18lbs higher this year
* He is also very lightly raced this season
* The first 8 winners of this had 5 3 9 3 3 6 4 4 runs that year
* BIG SHU won last year with 1 run and a point to point as well
* My worry is whether he is just short of a run
* He does  have improvement in him so must be considered
* 1 run this year makes him a Saver rather than selection

* BALTHAZAR KING has 117 days off and topweight
* I don’t think that’s an impossible task
* The 2010 winner had 88 days off and that weight
* BALTHAZAR KING won this in 2012 but didn’t run in 2013’s year
* The ground is also in his favour
 
Selection

BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet

BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 
****************************************************
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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Grand National Tip

It’s that time of year again folks.

Grand National Day tomorrow.

It’s a race I live in fear of each year sweating over the possibility of her indoors picking the winner on the grounds that the jockey was wearing a pretty blouse. If so I won’t hear the end of it for a long time.

I have put a bit more effort into my own research than that. Remember however that hard work and research is a thing that tends to pay off in the long run but not every day nor in every race.

Below you can read my personal thoughts on the race.

Good luck to you no matter who you decide to back in the end.

 

 

John Smith’s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) (Grade 3) (7yo+) 4m3f110y

See live odds from multiple bookmakers

This year The Grand National has been shortened to 4m3f110y

One area that interests me is the number of runs this year horses have had.
So I will start there

Number of Races This Season

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
* Clearly having 4-5-6-7 runs this year is ideal
* None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year
* The following horses fail this and are rejected
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is 12 with 1 run this season
* That’s not an acceptable profile with Topweight
* WHAT A FRIEND is exposed with 1 run this season
* QUEL ESPRIT is out with 2 runs this season
* His sire’s never had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* Stamina Weight and lack of runs should beat him
* ALWAYS WAINING 12 and has just 2 runs this season
* He is Flat Bred and doesn’t look likely to stay
* TREACLE will stay but he is also underraced
* He’s exposed aged 12 with just two runs this season

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
* SUNNYHILLBOY only has two runs this season
* He was 2nd in last years race
* I don’t see him repeating that this year
* He had 4 prepatory races last year and just 2 this year
* He had 30 days absence last year but now has 84 days
* He had 10st 5lbs last year and now 11st 4lbs
* That’s three big problems from an exposed horse
* He is hardly big in stature anyway
* He withdrew from the Gold Cup on the day
* That lack of prep run must count against him
* seabass has raced just twice this season
* He was 3rd in last years race when favourite
* Last year he had 8lbs less weight
* He also had 4 runs that season
* Now with more weight and only 2 runs I oppose him
* ON HIS OWN has raced just once this year
* He has a very worrying profile in other areas
* The least experienced winner had 9 Chase runs
* He has just 7 Chase runs and only 1 run this year
* He is a serious talent and has ability
* He may be a new breed of horses about to win this
* None before were remotely like him though
* Until one wins we should oppose his type of horse
* BALTHAZAR KING has just two runs this season
* That’s a big worry for an exposed horse like him
* He won the 2012 Cross Country at Cheltenham
* That was 3m 7f but not a true stamina test
* He is the only horse by his sire to win beyond 3m 3f
* Horses by Kings Theatre are 1-32 racing at 3m 3f +
* His 141 day absence also badly damages his chance
* The past 21 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* CAPPA BLEU has only raced twice this season
* The last 19 winners had won at least 3 Chases before
* CAPPA BLEU hasn’t done that yet
* 18 of the last 19 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* CAPPA BLEU has only won twice over fences
* With 9 Chase runs he’d be joint least experienced winner

A Recent Race

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 21 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* I’d not want a horse absent more than 60 days
* The last 21 winners were absent this many days
* 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25
* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had the following absences
* 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23
* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 18 of the past 22 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* I am prepared to have some leeway with 60 days absence
* The following horses fail this statistic
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is absent 70 days
* SUNNYHILLBOY has an absence of 84 days
* BALTHAZAR KING is absent 141 days
* The above 3 horses are already rejected
* MUMBLES HEAD and LOST GLORY fail it too

Age Of Winner

* Horses aged 6 and 7 have appalling records
* They haven’t won since 1940 and few even finish the race
* Horses aged 6 and 7 are too young
* SAINT ARE is rejected as a 7 year old
* Horses aged 8 need to actually be 8 year olds
* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds
* Horses aged 8 haven’t the best recent record
* If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8
* Be aware some horses are younger than their age
* If Foaled after April 6th they are really under 8
* All 8yo winners were foaled early before the race
* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere are the last 8yo winners
* They were all foaled early the year they were born
* They were all aged 8 and a few months
* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal
* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8
* They are just 7 and a few months old
* LOST GLORY is a only about 7.5 years old
* SOLL wont fully be an 8 year old form another 28 days
* HARRY THE VIKING isn’t 8 quite yet either

Back Class

* Class is important in a Grand National Winner
* 11 of the last 12 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher
* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Graded win
* 21 of the last 22 had raced in Graded Class before
* The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Having No Graded form is not acceptable
* The following horses have no Graded form
* TARQUINIUS – LOST GLORY
* COLBERT STATION has no Listed or Graded form
* That’s a worry but I don’t want to be hasty with him
* He won a 22 runner Chase worth 89k very easily
* Officially that Irish race was a Class 2 race
* I would view that as more like a Graded race
* COLBERT STATION gets a free pass on this statistic

* These Horses haven’t won a Listed/Graded race
* VIKING BLOND – SOLL – MAJOR MALARKEY
* ANY CURRENCY – HARRY THE VIKING – MUMBLES HEAD
* MR MOONSHINE – BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE
* THE RAINBOW HUNTER – SWING BILL – TREACLE
* OSCAR TIME – JOIN TOGETHER
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE hasn’t won in this class either
* BALTHAZAR KING has also failed that
* CAPPA BLUE is yet to win in Listed/Graded class too
* TEAFORTHREE has plenty of Graded form
* He has never won beyond Class 2 before
* That is a definite negative about his profile

Chasing Experience

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 22 winners had the following Chase runs
* 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* The least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 previous Chase runs
* There were two more that had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 9 Chase starts
* COLBERT STATION only has 5 Chase starts
* That is 4 less than the least experienced winner
* We have to bear in mind the race is changing
* Last years 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
* Mely moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* The race has been maid easier this year
* COLBERT STATION fails this but I could forgive this
* He has a longer absence than the last 21 winners
* That’s only by 6 days though and I would ignore that
* COLBERT STATION – I would still keep him on side
* ON HIS OWN only has 7 Chase starts
* He fell in one of those in this race last year
* I rejected him earlier with 1 run this season
* JOIN TOGETHER has raced in only 8 Chases
* That’s a bit short of runs when he didn’t finish in three
* WIth two Pulled Ups and a Fall he hasn’t had many runs
* JOIN TOGETHER gets credit in many areas
* He will stay and he has backclass
* He also has a healthy of runs this season
* Against him is just 8 previous chase runs
* Especially when not finishing 3 of these
* It worries me he was a Novice just 12 months ago
* There is also the issue of field size
* His Trainer is on record saying he likes small fields
* All his wins come in fields of 10 or less
* In fields of 11 or more he is PU 7th Fell PU
* He’s been to 2 Cheltenham and 1 Aintree festival
* He has disappointed on all three occasions
* Profile isn’t quite right and has a few minor flaws
* CAPPA BLEU is short of Chase runs having only 9
* CAPPA BLEU is short of runs as well with just 2 this year
* That’s not many for a horse aged 11
* He was 4th in last years race
* He was younger then and had an extra run that season
* The last 19 winners had won at least 3 Chases before
* CAPPA BLEU hasn’t done that yet
* 18 of the last 19 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* CAPPA BLEU has only won twice over fences
* With 9 Chase runs he’d be joint least experienced winner
* CAPPA BLUE is yet to win in Listed/Graded class too
* All in all I want more from a 12/1 chance

Weight

* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* The 2012 winner won with 11st 6lbs
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight

Past Chase Wins

* 18 of the last 19 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* CAPPA BLEU has only won twice over fences
* JOIN TOGETHER also fail this
* Both of these have already been rejected
* NINETIETH MINUTE has won just 1 Chase start
* I wouldn’t want to bet him
* COLBERT STATION also fails this stat with 2 Chase wins
* That’s understandable as he has just 6 Chase runs
* He has a 40% strike rate over fences
* If we forgive him inexperience we can forgive him this

Handicap Chase Runs

* Past winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
* 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well
* They won 14 of the last 20 renewals
* Every recent winner ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER has just 1 Handicap Chase run
* COLBERT STATION only has 2 Handicap Chase runs
* JOIN TOGETHER only has 3 Handicap Chase runs
* All of these have already been rejected
* NINETIETH MINUTE only has 3 Handicap runs
* JONCOL runs in his first Handicap Chase today
* We know every past winner ran in at least 4
* JONCOL could have problems with ground and trip
* He clearly looks best around 2m 4f – 2m 6f
* I don’t see him getting home

Past Handicap Chase Wins

* Number of Handicap Chases won
* Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
* 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases

Jumping Ability

* You want a decent Jumper of course
* The last 13 winners had not fallen more than twice before
* I wouldn’t rule a horse out on this statistic
* It is something to bear in Mind
* TATENEN has 1 Fall and 3 Unseated riders
* BIG FELLA THANKS has 1 Fall and 3 Unseated riders
* CHICAGO GREY has fallen twice and unseated as well
* AURORAS ENCORE has fallen 3 times and unseated

The 3 Mile Statistic

* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* seabass hasn’t done that but I ignore that
* His 3rd in this race last year trumps that
* I have rejected him for different reasons
* TATENEN has never raced beyond 2m 6f
* His sire hasn’t bred a 3m 3f winner yet
* Coming from the 2m Grand Annual must hurt him
* He moves up almost 2m 4f in distance today

Horses Coming From 2m4f Races

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor
* This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter
* I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less
* No exposed horse won doing that
* TATENEN fails that and makes no appeal
* CHICAGO GREY comes from a 2m 4f race
* More about his chance later on

* BIG FELLA THANKS also comes from 2m 4f
* He has a mixed profile for me
* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran 3 times in this race
* He was beaten 23 28 and 40 lengths
* All 3 times he had a bad profile and excuses
* I don’t think he has a disastrous profile this year
* I think he has a lot of weight for what he’s achieved
* He has more weight this year than for all 3 of his failures
* Not keen he comes from 2m 4f either when exposed
* He probably doesn’t get the trip and I wanted better

* WEIRD AL probably hasn’t got the guts to win this
* His good runs are rare and he is underraced this year
* There is a good chance he wont get home
* His sires runners at 3m 6f and more are 0-40
* AURORAS ENCORE is an exposed 11yo
* His sire hasn’t bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet
* Not keen he has fallen 3 times and unseated already
* I don’t see him being good enough
* FORPADYDEPLASTERER has won an Arkle before
* You have to question his stamina here
* His sire’s runners at 3m 4f and more are 1-34
* That sole winner came at Cartmel in a Class 5 race
* He’s exposed and moves up almost 2 miles in trip
* I cant see him overcoming that
* NINETIETH MINUTE has won 1 of his 11 Chase runs
* 18 of the last 19 winners had won at least 3 Chases
* He has less handicap chase experience than past winners
* His form isn’t really good enough to win this
* Liable to hit some fences and he’s fallen twice before
* RARE BOB passes most of my main angles
* He was brought down at the 5th in last years race
* He’s exposed and could be vulnerable to improvers
* I do like that he has improved on all 4 runs this year
* His Racing Post Rating improved each time
* He’s had 4 runs here but hasn’t done much
* He was Brought down in one and Unseated in another
* He was well beaten in the other two
* He has won just 1 of his last 22 races though
* I looked at his record in Chases with 16 + runners
* 3rd 8th BD 16th PU 8th 3rd 4th 4th
* That doesn’t inspire me too much
* I looked at his form over 3m 2f and more
* He’s run this far 5 times in the past
* He was Brought down in one of then in this race
* The other 4 runs saw defeats of 65 59 19 12 lengths
* Not convinced will Stay this far
* He does have a fair statistical chance
* I just don’t trust him to do the business

 

Shortlist

* ACROSS THE BAY passes all my main angles
* He’s won 3 times this season probably not ideal
* That doesn’t take much away from a competent profile
* His Chase record is 7 2 W W PU PU PU 2 UR 2 W
* He has only finished 4 of his 11 Chase runs
* I’d be slightly worried he lacks the substance to win
* Drying Ground could also be a potential issue
* There is a doubt about his stamina in the class
* His Sire’s had winners at 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* None have yet won over further than 3m 5f
* The two winners came in Class 3 and Class 5 races
* He has lots of positives as well though
* He is W W 2 7 W this season
* That “7th” had a genuine excuse in the Welsh National
* He’s had a wind operation which could also help
* Bottom line is he is shortlistable but maybe not 1st choice
* He is too big at 40/1 and more on Betfair

* CHICAGO GREY was brought down early in last years race
* He passes the important angles I like in this race
* CHICAGO GREY has to be considered a potential winner
* I don’t like the fact he comes from a 2m 4f chase
* He is well raced this year and ticks a lot of boxes
* I do worry about his jumping which isn’t perfect
* Other than that there is a lot to like
* His trainer has a National Pedigree
* CHICAGO GREY also looks laid out for the race
* He certainly has the class but there are some worries
* Look at his career record in his 6 Handicap Chases
* He finished 4 of these losing by 25 38 51 50 lengths
* He Unseated rider and was brought down in another
* He has never ran well in a handicap chase before
* He started 20/1 9/1 20/1 4/1 9/4f 11/2f in these races
* He’s one of the best handicapped horses in the race
* CHICAGO GREY – It’s his jumping worrying me most
* It was fine last time but many times before it wasn’t

* COLBERT STATION – Shortlisting him at this stage
* Statistically he does not have a safe profile
* I have given him a free pass to the shortlist stage
* I have been very generous to do that
* I am not prepared to rule him out just yet
* I’m sure McCoy will ride him ahead of Sunnyhillboy
* I have to turn a blind eye to some of his failings
* At this stage its vital not to eliminate the winner
* I love his sire and he should relish the distance
* The fences are easier and the distance shortened
* It could be best to forgive his inexperience
* At this stage he is worth considering for a saver

* ROBERTO GOLDBACK passes my main angles
* He looks a very dangerous floater to me
* He does have a lot of weight with 11st 6lbs
* He also has a lot of smaller field form
* ROBERTO GOLDBACK has won in a 14 runner race
* He was kept wide though and I’m not convinced
* That said his owner bought him to run in this race
* He will either take to the race or he wont
* Not bad for a small bet around 40/1

* TEAFORTHREE has a lot of positives statistically
* He passes all my major angles for the race
* He is basically safe with a few niggles
* Not keen he was only a Novice Chaser last year
* That said so was the 1997 winner so its not a deal breaker
* I’d also worry about how he’s cope if its quick ground
* His last run was poor but that was excusable
* After the Hennessy and Welsh National
* He wanted a longer break before he ran at Haydock
* No Aintree form but neither had many past winners
* TEAFORTHREE deserves a place on the shortlist

* BALLABRIGGS won this race in 2011
* He was 6th last year but had a very weak profile
* He raced just once last season before the National
* He was only beaten 17 lengths into 6th place
* That’s a very credible run without more than 1 prep run
* He had some much fitter horses ahead of him last year
* He was just behind Sunnyhillboy -seabass – Cappa Blue
* BALLABRIGGS now looks fitter than them this year
* BALLABRIGGS has 3 runs this season 2 more than 2012
* Sunnyhillboy – seabass – Cappa Blue all have just two
* These 3 horses have a lot more weight this year
* BALLABRIGGS in contrast has 5lbs less weight
* He is 18lbs better off with Sunnyhillboy
* He is 13lbs better off with seabass
* He is 6lbs better off with Cappa Blue
* He has two more races this season
* Those 3 all had 2 fewer races this season
* I don’t see why he shouldn’t beat them and all of these
* I’d rather have him a bit younger and with another run
* He isn’t though and there are compensations
* One being so many here have 1-2 runs this season
* He’s done it before and will handle any ground
* He’s a safe jumper and I fancy him a lot this year
* I like the price but have to get over one thing
* His Age and weight with three runs this season
* Individually I don’t worry about his age or weight or runs
* Collectively when you combine all three I do
* I looked at horses older than 10 with 10st 12lbs in the race
* They had a 1-46 record in the last 16 renewals
* That was last years winner Neptune Collonges
* He was 11 and had 4 runs that season
* BALLABRIGGS is 12 and has 3 runs this season
* I have to wrestle with that but I have backed him

 

Shortlist Summary

ACROSS THE BAY – CHICAGO GREY
ROBERTO GOLDBACK -TEAFORTHREE
BALLABRIGGS – COLBERT STATION

My Final Selection

ROBERTO GOLDBACK 40/1 Win Bet

BALLABRIGGS 22/1 Win Bet

COLBERT STATION 12/1 Saver ( saver staked to roughly reclaim stake on other two if saver wins)

 

The odds above are from Betfair. Betdaq will offer about the same but are running a 0% commission offer for the Grand National.

If you prefer to go each way at a traditional bookmaker note that most offer five places. Beware a few tightwads who only offer four places. Bet Victor are worth noting due to them paying six places.

See live odds from multiple bookmakers

Best wishes
Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

National Hunt Chase – Stamina Issues

 

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Cheltenham 2.40 pm Wednesday

 

One of the things I hate is listening to self appointed

experts who repeat bland clichés about things like a

horse’s stamina. I hear them churn out that “a horse

will stay all day” and “it won’t fail for lack of stamina.”

Many people look at Sire Statistics to try and find if

a Sire has bred winners over the distance or on the

ground. It is very unscientific but no less so than so

many other different approaches to picking horses.

 

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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Today I want to look at Wednesday’s National Hunt

Chase. Run over 4 miles it is a race where stamina

most definitely comes into play.

A simplistic stamina check is to see if a horse’s sire

has bred winners at long distances.

 

I however want to go the extra mile, dig a bit deeper

and determine if it has done it in the class and on the ground.

 

I have done it this way.

 

* I looked at all the Sires winners

* I found out how many won at 3m 4f or more

* I found out how many have done that on Soft ground

* I found out how many of those did it in Class 3 or more

 

Below you can see my executive summary of this sire research

 

SIRE PERFORMANCE RANKINGS

1) GODSMEJUDGE- Excellent Performance scores

2) MERRY KING – Excellent Performance scores

3) SEA OF THUNDER – Excellent Performance scores

4) VESPER BELL – Enough promise to pass as fine

5) BENHEIR -Enough promise to pass as fine

6) ROSE OF THE MOON – Acceptable scores

7) HIGHLAND LODGE – Acceptable scores

8 ) EMPEROR´S CHOICE – Acceptable scores

9) HAWKES POINT – Not far away but has a bit to prove

10)TOUR DES CHAMPS – Borderline Results

11) BACK IN FOCUS – Stamina not guaranteed

12) RIVAL D´ESTRUVAL – Inconclusive and unproven

13) REAL MILAN – Unproven but small sample size

14) LYREEN LEGEND – Inconclusive and unproven

15) TOFINO BAY – Inconclusive but stamina doubts

16) BUDDY BOLERO – Doubts about stamina

 

For most of you that executive summary will be all you need

to add an element of Sire / Stamina assessment to your own analysis

of this race.

 

I have however posted on our private member message

boards an additional full breakdown of every horse

and a record of the winners the sire has had when

the ground was soft and when running in the class.

I do not want to clutter this piece listing everything.

 

Below however is the section on the current market leader

 

* BACK IN FOCUS

* The Sire has 517 winners

* Record over 3m 4f or more is 7-97

* Record on Softer Ground over 3m 4f + is 4-80

* Softer Ground at 3m 4f in Class 3 + is 1-24

* There is a slight problem here

* Minella Four Star won the 2011 Midlands National

* That was 4m 1f in Listed Class on Good to Soft

* That was the winner in the 1-24 record

* Officially it was Good to Soft that day

* It was actually good ground as it dried out

* You could see this as a 0-23 or a 1-24 record

* Depends which side of the fence you want to sit

* Results and Assessment of his Stamina Profile

* 0-23 or 1-24 record. Stamina not quite certain

 

This analysis leads me to believe there are stamina doubts

about this horse.

 

Bear in mind however that stamina and sire analysis is only one

piece of the puzzle.

I have many more checks to do before considering

my own final selection for this race on Wednesday.

 

I do hope you are with me as a client under of discounted and

guaranteed Cheltenham deal at that point.

Here is the cheap deal link

 

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

PS New clients who joined us for last Saturday

have already had their bank rolls boosted for Cheltenham.

Three advised tips – Won 4/1 – 2nd at 7/1 to land each way advice

and a yet to run long odds ante post tip for Cheltenham day 1

 

 

PPS If you are a bit of a stat head and would like a copy of the

stamina stats for the other runners in this race, just contact me and say so

clearly. I will pass them on to you.

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Lingfield Racing Tip

Not the strongest bet this year but I am having a personal

smaller stakes dabble at what I feel are value odds.

 

Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.

10/1 at betfredLadbrokesCoral – stan j

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 12, 2011

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Newbury Horse Racing Tip

NEWBURY 2.50

EBF/THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS’ ASSOCIATION
MARES’ NOVICES’ CHASE FINAL (A HANDICAP)
(LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  2m6f110y

7/2 Jaunty Flight, 5/1 Lamanver Homerun, 13/2 Rate Of Knots, 15/2 Shatabdi, 10/1 Katess, 12/1 Aimigayle, 16/1 Pyleigh Lady, 33/1 Ceoperk, 50/1 Ruby Dante.

This is a Mares Chase around 22f. Its a Novice handicap and  messy statistically as it was formerly run at Uttoxeter and it hasn’t always been open to Novices so its very unsafe. It does have a long history though and what they show is this. They imply that a horse with a high weight may struggle as horses with 11st 3lbs or more had a poor 1-36 record in the last 14 renewals. That is a worry for LAMANVER HOMERUN

Horses aged under 7 in this race had a 0-29 record and Thats a statistic that could fall and it may well be the one trend that will determine If I get this race right.

We have AIMIGAYLE – KATESS  –  RATE OF KNOTS aged
six in this race. I was tempted by AIMIGAYLE but I decided to oppose these three horses aged 6. What swings it for me is that none of them are foaled before March 21st in the year they were officially born which technically means they are all not yet 6 year olds until a month or so so whilst I may have risked a horse aged 6 that was almost 7 these three are really just 5 year olds about to become 6 despite them being offically six year olds. RATE OF KNOTS is the least experienced and almost all past winners had more experience than she does.

I’d suggest RUBY DANTE and CEOPERK are too old as no past
winners were aged 9 or more. I’d be more interested in SHATABDI had she had a more recent run and ran better in that race.

Overall perhaps the best profile belonged to JAUNTY FLIGHT
and she won the mares hurdle final last year at this meeting. She has a superb profile and on soft ground she would be a confident bet. However this is not soft. Its good bordering on fast. They say JAUNTY FLIGHT wants soft ground and his form suggests that. He is from a sire (Busy Flight) that has 23 national hunt winners. All 23 came on ground that was soft. Those that ran on good or faster ground were 0-90 so you have to worry that JAUNTY FLIGHT may find the ground too fast. I would still save on him as his profile is brilliant. PYLEIGH LADY has a serious chance as well and I like her profile and 25/1 is far too
big a price. Because of the ground PYLEIGH LADY is my bet

SELECTION – PYLEIGH LADY E/W  14/1 at many places including betfred , Ladbrokes, bet365

Posted under horse racing tips