Several have asked how the message for the private members service differs from that which we post on the free blog here at about 1pm each Saturday.
This is best answered by example I guess.
On Saturday October 1st 2011 we posted here a snippet from the full message.
See said blog post at this link ==> http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/another-newmarket-winner/
( Art History the free tip Won )
Below however I have copied for you the much longer and detailed messages Full
Members received.
This is exactly as sent..spelling mistakes and all.
I have however added results for the races discussed in red.
It is also worth pointing out that full members get sent their message about 1hr before a free selection gets posted on horse betting blog here as we want to give them a fair chance to pick off any good early morning prices.
If you would like to join the service proper please visit
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
We do offer a very simple no quibble refund guarantee if you later change your mind.
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Mathematician 1075
No Strong Bet Today
T o d a y ‘s S e l e c t i o n
Ascot 5.00
ELSHABAKIYA 16/1
Each Way
2nd at 16/1 landing each way winnings
One bet today chosen from several options. We had
a 16/1 winner last Saturday and I have decided to go
with another big priced horse. A Day with too many
options really. It’s been a very good week. I thought
about an each way double Blanche Dubawi 5.20 with
Dubai Queen who runs in ELSHABAKIYA’s race but
I decided to go with the bigger prices and commit to
ELSHABAKIYA as I did have multile options there.
She is the riskiest best of my portfolio but also offers
us the most reward so I will take a chance at 16/1.
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Message Thoughts and Potential Bets
Most of the message is at Ascot and Newmarket as
I felt they offered the best angles. There are plenty
of races that throw up some interesting angles with
potential bets. Not all of these are welcome or bets
I’d want to have. These are all summarised below.
Newmarket 3.35 – ART HISTORY 5/1 Each Way Won
Ascot 3.50 – PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 Each Way Won
Redcar 4.00 – BOGART 6/1 Won
Ascot 5.00 – ELSHABAKIYA 20/1 2nd
Ascot 5.00 – DUBAI QUEEN 4/1 Lost
Newmarket 5.20 – BLANCHE DUBAWI 3/1 Win Won
REDCAR
Poor card. Ignore almost all of it but I do have one
really interesting Draw stat in the 4pm race. There
is a warm favourite in Bannock heavily backed and
dominating the betting. Fascinating to see that He’s
drawn in Stall 22. I looked at every Redcar race in
the last 11 years. Thats every distance and all type
of races. There are 831 of these races and not once
has a horse won from Stall 21 or higher in any race.
I explained a bit more below but because of this and
a couple of other factors I am opposing him and I’d
look at Bogart as the sensible bet each way.
NEWMARKET
There are 5 previews at Newmarket today including
3 shorter priced horses. Not bothered about minnows
so ignoring those much as ENCKE (4.10) looks like
the strongest. I have two bigger priced options here.
Not convinced I should trust a Mark Johnston horse
up in trip but ART HISTORY is the only horse that
has a solid profile in the 3.35pm and he looks good
each way. The Boadecia Stakes at 5.20pm is not my
kind of race but my angles say BLANCHE DUBAWI
has by far the safest profile and looks one to consider.
ASCOT
Five previews at Ascot. I’ve chances in the opening
two races both competetive though. I’ve thrown my
best angles at a very hard 3.50pm handicap and the
end result was PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 who could
well win this if he can stay the distance. The 5pm is
a race I always do well in. Some strong angles always
give me the winner on a shortlist. There are times I
have chosen wrongly from that shortlist and today’s
choice is difficult I have chosen ELSHABAKIYA at
16/1 as a horse I have to bet and DUBAI QUEEN as
the main selecton in that race as explained below.
T h u r s d a y ‘s M e s s a g e
Quiet day yesterday. Kept it low key knowing their
wasn’t much choice. My mentions didnt win and the
decision to go with low stakes was right especially as
Ascot got the better of me which I feared it might.
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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
N e w m a r k e t 1.50
6/4 Mizwaaj, 13/8 Campanology, 11/2 Al Wajba
10/1 Sheikh The Reins, 12/1 Switzerland, 33/1 Conowen
40/1 Papal Power.
This is a 6f Maiden for 2 year olds. I would happily ignore
the unraced SWITZERLAND and AL WAJBA as well as a
well beaten SHEIKH THE REINS and all the outsiders not
because they have bad profiles but because there are 2 here
with a seriou profiles. CAMPANOLOGY and MIZWAAJ
come from 7f Conditions races within the last month. All
horses with that profile had a brilliant 10-19 record and if you
chuck out horses at 12/1 and more that improves this
profile to a 10-12 record with all 12 getting placed. We do
have to choose between them. MIZWAAJ is lighter raced
but statistically that doesnt matter much. Its foolish to be assessing
CAMPANOLOGY as a maiden as he has already
won a race but was disqualified.
Its a close match with both looking decent. Marginal preference for CAMPANOLOGY.
Selection – CAMPANOLOGY 11/8 Won
A s c o t 2.05
4/1 Caledonia Lady, 5/1 My Propeller, 5/1 Stonefield Flyer
7/1 Hestian, 12/1 Rex Imperator, 14/1 Forevertheoptimist
14/1 Hexagonal, 16/1 Ponty Acclaim, 16/1 Pyman´s Theory
16/1 Royal Award, 20/1 Chunky Diamond, 25/1 Fanrouge
25/1 Miss Lahar, 40/1 Church Music, 50/1 Betty Fontaine
50/1 Signifer.
* The Cornwallis Stakes is a Group 3 race for 2yo’s over 5f.
* Ascot has 16 renewals of this race
* This is the only similar race at this time of year.
* The following Stats have worked out in this race
* All 26 horses that came via handicaps lost
* Horses beaten over 6 lengths last time were 0-48
* No maiden won this race
* No horse was absent more than 10 weeks
* Horses absent over a Month need to be Males
* They need to have under 6 runs
* Horses from 6f races all had 5 + runs
* No winners came down from 7f or more
* REX IMPERATOR – Wrong from 7f
* HESTIAN – Wrong from a handicap and draw not ideal
* MY PROPELLER has some statistical problems
* The only filly to win from 6f has far more runs
* That horse had ran much better last time than her
* In fact all 16 past winners ran better than her last time
* STONEFIELD FLYER has a long absence
* Horses absent a month from 5f races struggled
* None had 4 or more career runs like he does
* Stall 16 may not be helpfull either
* HEXAGONAL – respected from a good trial race
* His only flaw is all past winners had won before
* HEXAGONAL hasnt managed that. Respected
B e s t P r o f i l e
* CALEDONIA LADY looks good
* She ran in the Flying Childers as did many past winners
* She won the Roseberry Stakes at Ayr last time out
* That puts her very close to 2006 winner Alzerra
* CALEDONIA LADY has a good profile 3rd
N e w m a r k e t 2.25
10/11 Samitar, 11/2 Hazel Lavery, 10/1 Coplow
10/1 Wahylah, 14/1 Arsaadi, Buzkashi, 20/1 Aniseed
20/1 Glee, 25/1 Lost Highway, 33/1 Lemon Rock
33/1 Perfect Delight, 33/1 Roedean, 33/1 Soho Rocks
33/1 Tina´s Spirit, 50/1 Princess Caetani, Symphony Star
66/1 Party Line, 200/1 Itsonlymakebelieve.
This is a Fillies Trophy for 2 year olds over 7f. There are 25
Similar Class 2 races and my observations of these are below.
* In terms of the draw it looks quite complicated
* I think the Worst Draws are 15-16-17-18
* I’d avoid horses with 7 or more starts
* I’d avoid all horses beaten 6 or more lengths last time.
* Not much I can say really
* HAZEL LAVERY comes from a 7f Conditions race
* All 20 horses doing that lost
* COPLOW – ARSAADI have the same problems
* WAHYLAH looks shortlistable
* SAMITAR clearly sets the standard
* She was 2nd in a Group 1 only 7 days ago
* No horse has tried to win with her profile
* She will either outclass these on form
* Or the race will come too soon and she wont perform
* Thats impossible to know so we have to guess
* I think SAMITAR has the strongest chance
* Putting his chance into perspective
* She’s a similar price to Encke in the Maiden at 4.10
* I’d much rather bet Encke myself
* SAMITAR is still the selection though Won
A s c o t 2.40
2/1 Arctic Cosmos, 11/4 Lost In The Moment
7/2 Quest For Peace, 10/1 City Leader, 11/1 Nanton
16/1 Ted Spread, 16/1 Yaseer.
No real interest in the Cumberland Lodge stakes a poor
statistics race. ARCTIC COSMOS is well clear on ratings
but he hasnt ran in 385 days. Seasonal debutants struggled
in this and all similar races the only winner different than him.
I would be nervous about that profile. I am opposing him.
QUEST FOR PEACE looks unsafe with his absence as a lightly raced horse.
CITY LEADER doesnt look a fit profile. YASEER was well beaten last time
and I cant find a winner like him but his trainer has a 5-6 record in this race
so I erespect him. There is one horse I wanted to be with against the favourite.
LOST IN THE MOMENT is from the Ebor handicap and the 2006 winner
did exactly the same aged 4 and LOST IN THE MOMENT carried a
lot more weight as well and that makes him my choice.
Selection – LOST IN THE MOMENT Lost
N e w m a r k e t 3.35
11/4 Jameel, 11/2 Art History, 6/1 Topolski
13/2 Butler, 8/1 Incendo, 8/1 Warlu Way, 9/1 Greylami
16/1 The Betchworth Kid, 20/1 Red Anthem
25/1 Big Creek, 25/1 Itlaaq.
* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses
* There are 53 similar races at this time of year
* JAMEEL is very lightly raced
* We had 2 winners like him from Maidens
* Both came from 12f and he comes from 10f
* Neither had 1-2 runs that season
* I looked at 3 year olds from 10f races
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 runs were 0-23
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 that year were 0-22
* JAMEEL does have flaws in his profile
* TOPOLSKI had a superb season over hurdles last year
* He won all 3 and now returns back to the flat
* Long absence and I am far from convinced about him
* Horses like him score poorly and this is a hot race
* His connections say he is only 90% fit
* ITLAAQ and BIG CREEK didnt do enough last time
* RED ANTHEM may need more runs
* THE BETCHWORTH KID has been absent too long
* No exposed horse won without 7 + runs that season
* GREYLAMI fails that and looks short of runs
* INCENDO also fails that with 6 runs
* INCENDO is exposed and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* Similar horses struggled with a 2-91 record
* Both had more backclass and came from better races
* INCENDO didnt really do much for me
P o s s i b l e s
* BUTLER is 4 and well beaten over 12f last time
* WARNES WAY has the same problem
* Neither come out well on their latest starts
* I looked at horses aged 4 well beaten last time
* These horses score badly but there is hope there
* Last years winner of this overcame a similar problem
* If either bounce back they could be a threat
* Results show not many 4 year olds like them have
* Last years winner had a recent race
* Both horses have been absent over a Month
* I looked at horses aged 4 absent over a Month
* Those with 9 + runs had a 1-40 record
* That horse won down from the 14f Ebor
* BUTLER – WARNES WAY just come up short
S e l e c t i o n
* ART HISTORY is 3 and won at 10f last time
* I found 2 similar winners who were a close match
* ART HISTORY is a positive
* ART HISTORY Each Way 11/2 looks a solid bet Won
A s c o t 3.50
6/1 Smarty Socks,9/1 Hawkeyethenoo 10/1 Decent Fella
10/1 Golden Desert, 10/1 Pastoral Player 12/1 Joe Packet
Webbow, 14/1 Casual Glimpse Nasri 16/1 Imperial Guest
20/1 Atlantic Sport 20/1 Dream Eater, Parisian Pyramid
20/1 The Cheka 25/1 Al Khaleej, 33/1 Below Zero.
* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-110
* Ascot has had 14 renewals of this race
* There has been 63 Similar races at other tracks
* The Draw should play some part in this race
* Looking at all similar races here over recent years
* I think the Draws to avoid are 1-2-3-4
* I would much rather have a higher draw
* I suspect Stalls 5 to 12 will be the ideal place to be
* Horses from 6f won 8 of the 68 races
* BELOW ZERO comes out badly from 6f
* No 3yo as exposed as him has won from 6f
* Exposed horses from 6f races had a poor 2-96 record
* They all had at least 5 runs that season
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that with 4
* No Exposed horse from 6f lost by 4 + lengths last time
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that
* If you take the 30 exposed winners
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-45
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected
* PARISIAN PYRAMID also fails that
* IMPERIAL GUEST is exposed and from 6f
* Similar horses were 2-96 but none from a Conditions race
* ATLANTIC SPORT has the same problem
* None of the winners were aged 8 or more
* WEBBOW doesnt appeal as a 9 year old
* Not with a Months absence
* DREAM EATER is exposed and comes from an 8f race
* All similar winners had at least 7 runs that season
* DREAM EATER only has 4 runs and looks underraced
* If you take the 30 exposed winners
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-45
* DREAM EATER fails that and is rejected
* Only 2 winners were aged 7 or more (2-52)
* None of these had more than 8st 12lbs
* SMARTY SOCKS fails that
* None won last time like SMARTY SOCKS
* SMARTY SOCKS has a career high mark and looks unsafe
* GOLDEN DESERT has a similar profile
* He is 7 and won a recent 7f race
* Horses winning within the past 2 weeks struggled
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-19
* GOLDEN DESERT fails that and isnt well drawn
* SMARTY SOCKS fails that statistic as well
* AL KHALEEJ is 7yo and we know these are 2-52
* None won with under 9 runs that season
* AL KHALEEJ only has 4 runs this year
* AL KHALEEJ looks underraced this year for his age
* JOE PACKET has a bad draw in Stall 2
* I find him unimpressive from a Listed race
* Very few winners come from Listed or Group races
* None did it as exposed as he is
* THE CHEKA is 5 and comes from 5f
* None of the horses that won like that had his weight
* None came from a Group race either
* Horses from Group races are unsafe and so is he
* CASUAL GLIMPSE is the only 3 year old
* Horses aged 3 with Listed or Group form before are 1-109
* That suggests he is the wrong type of 3yo
* Horses aged 3 from 8f races were just 2-67
* Those like him with 9 + runs were 0-35
* CASUAL GLIMPSE does not offer me enough
* DECENT FELLA is an unexposed 5yo
* Horses like that in 63 races were 0-32
* Thats a worry and DECENT FELLA is badly drawn
* He won a 7f handicap time and is absent 2 + weeks
* Horses with that profile were 1-29
* That winner was younger and different
* DECENT FELLA has a shaky profile
* NASRI is an exposed horse who won at 6f last time
* I found 1 similar winning at a different track
* I see him as a possible but not convinced with Stall 18
* He also comes from a 6f Conditions race
* No winners did that and he just fails to make the grade
Selection
* PASTORAL PLAYER is 4 and comes from a 6f race
* There were 2 winners doing that
* Both had Group 3 form and 13-20 runs like him
* PASTORAL PLAYER is therefore reasonable
* None like him won this race but two won elsewhere
* PASTORAL PLAYER could win this if he gets the 7f
PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 Each Way Won
R e d c a r 4.00
2/1 Bannock, 5/1 Bogart, 9/1 Silverheels, 12/1 Excelette
12/1 Gold City, 14/1 Bear Behind, 14/1 Bop It
16/1 Place In My Heart, 20/1 Fulbright, 20/1 Imelda Mayhem
20/1 North Star Boy, 25/1 Bling King, 25/1 Parc De Launay
25/1 Vital Gold, 33/1 Es Que Love, 33/1 Evervescent
33/1 Free Zone, 33/1 Kool Henry, 50/1 Cockney Fire
50/1 Hidden Passion, 50/1 Jack Who´s He, 50/1 Monnoyer
66/1 The Penny Horse.
This is a Listed race for 2 year olds over 6f. Clearly hard
as ever to sort out. I want to oppose BANNOCK here and
have a variety of reasons to do this statistically and not.
* He has a 64 day absence which wont be easy to overcome
* In all similar races no horses overcae that when so well raced
* His Trainer has stated “He has missed work” due to a setback
* He has said he “might need the race” which must hurt him
* Maybe my best angle is that he is drawn in Stall 22
* One very interesting Statistic about the draw
* Since 2000 Redcar have had 831 races
* Thats every race any time of year at Every Distance
* Horses drawn 20 or higher were 1-94
* Horses drawn 21 or more were 0-45
* No horse has ever won a Redcar race drawn 21 +
* Not since 2000 anyway
* BANNOCK therefore has to be opposed
* I’d want an alternative
* BEAR BEHIND has the same problems with the draw
* BOP IT has a nasty absence
* No horse came from a Nursery absent as long as her
* PLACE IN MY HEART – Unsafe from 5f Auction maiden
* BOGART looks the solid each way bet
* I like him more than any others
Selection
BOGART 6/1 Each Way Won
N e w m a r k e t 4.10
10/11 Encke, 9/2 Good Morning Star, 9/2 Sadma
13/2 Commitment, 14/1 Valiant Girl, 14/1 Venegazzu
20/1 Sunley Pride, 25/1 Attraction Ticket, 25/1 Lazeez
25/1 Leitrim King, 33/1 Renegotiate, 66/1 Harry Buckle.
This is a 2yo Maiden over a Mile. I have looked at over
400 similar races at this time of year. The big negatives
are GOOD MORNING STAR and SUNLEY PRIDE as if
you look at horses beaten 10 + lengths last time out who
ran within 2 weeks you find a horrible 8-527 record and
those like GOOD MORNING STAR fillies had a 0-108
record. The choice may be between ENCKE and any of
the unraced horses like SADMU or COMMITMENT. I
see ENCKE as very likely to win having debuted well in
a hot maiden at Doncaster. With normal improvement
I would expect him to win a maiden like this one.
Selection – ENCKE Won
Bit of a Break now before the next preview. I have not
done the 4.35pm Seller at Redcar. If you want a bet on
a match bet I see SINATRAMANIA as a very good bet
to beat Pursuing in the match bet because I doubt fitness
of the latter and I see SINATRAMANIA as the winner.
2nd at 6/1 winning the match bet against Pursuing
A s c o t 5.00
9/4 Rainfall, 5/1 Marvada, 11/2 Dubai Queen
15/2 Flambeau, 17/2 Sharnberry 11/1 Crying Lightening
16/1 Elshabakiya 20/1 Theladyinquestion 25/1 Perfect Silence.
* The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* The winners of this race all fit similar patterns
* All 10 winners were 3 year olds (others 0-38)
* All 10 winners had under 10 career runs (others 0-70)
* The 10 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9-8-7-6 previous races
* No past winner lost by 6 + lengths last time
* No past winner won last time out
* The 10 winners came from 6f-7f-8f in Class 3 or higher
* All 10 winners had 1 or 2 career wins
* This leaves 2 horses passing all the above angles
* ELSHABAKIYA – DUBAI QUEEN
* There are 24 similar Listed races elsewhere
* Exposed horses have a 0-37 record in these races
* PERFECT SILENCE fails that
* RAINFALL didnt appeal with just 2 runs this year
* Horses wih 1-2 runs that year and 5 + career runs were 0-31
* RAINFALL fails that
* She has 2 runs this year yet is 5 and well raced
* FLAMBEAU is 4 and has 10 career starts
* Horses aged 4 with 9 + runs were 1-59
* That horse had more runs this season than she does
* That winner also had Group 1 form as well and she doesnt
* THELADYINQUESTION lacks backclass for her profile
* She also loks underraced this year
* CRYING LIGHTENING only has 1 run since April
* She may be short of condition
* MARVADA – Minor flaws I see as forgiveable
* I would shortlist her but I have 3 others on the list
S h o r t l i s t
* SHARNBERRY – Good profile and respected
* ELSHABAKIYA – Sails through my strongest angles
* DUBAI QUEEN – Sails through my strongest angles
* DUBAI QUEEN is the obvious selection
* ELSHABAKIYA is too big a price to ignore
* Not keen DUBAI QUEEN is drawn 1
* Not keen ELSHABAKIYA is drawn 11
* With 11 runners I’d prefer a middle draw
* SHARNBERRY has the best draw of all of these
* She also has the most to prove as well
* The potential to choose wrong here is high
SELECTION
I have gone with ELSHABAKIYA.
2nd at 16/1 SP
N e w m a r k e t 5.20
11/4 Blanche Dubawi, 4/1 Rose Blossom, 11/2 Cochabamba
6/1 Sandslash, 8/1 Aneedah, 8/1 Anne Of Kiev
14/1 Gossamer Seed, Misplaced Fortune, 16/1 Amitola
25/1 Button Moon, 25/1 Ziraun.
* This is a Listed race over 6f for fillies
* There are only 8 past renewals of this race
* With no similar races we are in the Dark
* No winners were aged 6 or more
* No past winners had 21 or more career runs
* Every winner had at least 4 runs that season
* Every winner came from a Grade 1 track
* Every winner came from at least a Class 4 race
* None of the winners came from a 5f race
* This leaves 4 options
* COCHABAMBA – A little unsafe from 6f handicap
* ROSE BLOSSOM – The only 4yo winner had fewer runs
* GOSSAMER SEED – Impossible to read but basics are there
* BLANCHE DUBAWI has a smart profile
* 3 year olds are best and from Listed races
* Horses aged 3
* Coming from Listed Class Races
* At least 4 runs that season
* The following winners of this race had that profile
* 2010 2009 2008 2005 2004
* BLANCHE DUBAWI comes out best Won
A s c o t 5.35
7/2 Marygold, 9/2 Hot Sugar, 7/1 Sans Loi, 9/1 Forest Edge
9/1 Jack Of Diamonds, 10/1 Toffee Tart, 11/1 Little Rainbow
12/1 Golden Valley, 16/1 I´ll Be Good, 16/1 Our Cool Cat
16/1 Purley Queen, 20/1 Courtland Avenue, Kings Decree
20/1 Sheila´s Buddy, 25/1 Dream Whisperer
25/1 Our Phylli Vera, 28/1 Miss Conduct, Queen Of The Hop.
* This is a 2yo Conditions race over 6f
* There are only 12 similar races at this time of year
* I looked at every race over 6f here in 2011 with 11 + runners
* Winners were drawn 18 17 3 11 14 19 11
* I would be worried about very low drawn horses
* MARYGOLD doesnt look well drawn in stall 5
* I didnt like her anyway as horses from Nurseries are 2-94
* Both winners had more backclass than she does
* HOT SUGAR doesnt look well drawn either
* I´LL BE GOOD looks badly drawn as well
* It took him 9 runs to win a maiden 4 more than any other
* GOLDEN VALLEY also comes from a Nursery
* TOFFEE TART is badly drawn and from a Nursery
* JACK OF DIAMONDS comes from a 7f maiden
* No winners managed this
* I need to be right about the draw or I wont win
* SANS LOI drawn high looks the obvious play
* I’d like a shorter absence but overlooking that
* SANS LOI is my choice Lost
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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips
This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 7, 2011