A good day yesterday for the blog with a nice 5/1 winner Whicita Lineman

The main message for full members of mathematician betting also picked out 12/1 winner Go Native

and 2/1 winner Quevega

Today on the blog we have a snippet from the main message.

Fingers crossed for another winner today.

WEDNESDAY 5.15

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) 2m 1/2f

5/1 Rite Of Passage, 5/1 Sicilian Secret, 7/1 Dunguib, 10/1 Quel Esprit, 10/1 Quinola Des Obeaux, 14/1 Gagewell Flyer, 14/1 Shinrock Paddy, 16/1 Cadspeed, 16/1 Meath All Star, 22/1 Henry King, Cranky Corner, 33/1 Morning Supreme, Red Harbour, Some Present,  Bygones Of Brid,
40/1 Lead The Parade,  Long Strand,  Double Dash, 50/1 Latin America, 50/1 Pepe Simo, Lightening Rod, Abroad, 100/1 Benbane Head, Fennis Boy.

The Bumper is always a nightmare and Willie Mullins is
mob handed again with 9 runners which is ridiculous. It
seems that 14 of the 24 runners at 33/1 and more are
hard to fancy and it looks like we have 11 runners at
under 33/1. Ireland have won the last 5 renewals and 7
of the last 8 as well three of which were won by Willie
Mullins so they clearly dominate.

Statistically you want a horse that has won in a big field. The last 11 winners had all done that and had all won in fields of 16-24-15-27-28-24-17-19-20-22-17 runners. I would want a horse that won it a field of at least 13 runners. Thats quite interesting as SICILIAN SECRET has won in a 7 runner field only and he is the big talking horse. I would also take out all the English runners that dont come from Grade 1 tracks. I would  be against all the English runners that ran once. All 26 horses that had previously ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Bumper lost in this race so I would rule these out as well. I would demand a horse that won last time out. I would be opposing horses that ran within the previous fortnight. I would rather not have a 4 year old. I’d oppose all horses aged 6 that had under 3 career starts. We are still left with 8 horses after going through all those angles. I would ignore horses that lost more races than they won. I’m taking
out the French Bred horses as none have yet won or placed
in the race. I would ignore all horses that are 40/1 and over on the Exchanges. This leaves a shortlist of 3 runners. I will name the shortlist but to take it any further I would have to manufacture some unsafe trend or take a wild guess but my 3  “Best profiles” are these

GAGEWELL FLYER -RITE OF PASSAGE -SHINROCK PADDY

SELECTION

RITE OF PASSAGE Each Way

Two interesting and conflicting things about this selection. Dermot Weld won a Cheltenham race in the late 1980′s. Since 1990 Weld has a 0-49 record at the Festival and that included several beaten favourites. You can argue
that a trend like that makes him a negative and it will
excite all the “Trainer Trends” punters but I dont see it
like that. This trainer is one of the best trainers in the
World. He will be more determined than ever to win a
race again here. The other interesting thing about the
trainer and his horse is this. Reading in the Irish Press
(as you do) about the race a few days ago I came accros
a storythat interested me.

Dermot Weld was at the races some weeks ago and he
went up to Willie Mullin’s Mother – and duly told her
that whatever Willie Mullins runs in the Cheltenham
Bumper he would beat him with RITE OF PASSAGE whom he fancied big time. Thats the bet for me

SELECTION – RITE OF PASSAGE EACH WAY 5/1

Blog Comment – The Odds have now dropped slightly since this was advised to full members earlier today.

Best price now 7/2 in many places PaddyPower,CanBet, Tote , Ladbrokes etc

Posted under Major Horse Races

Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN – NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners  of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won – the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had  7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO – POSSOL – FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION – UNGARO Each Way 14/1  Blue Squareuareuare

CentreBet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however . it looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday December 6th

Just a small snippet from my main message today for the blog.
( main service at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk )

No Account Bet

Todays Selection

Chepstow 3.45

GILES CROSS – Each Way

We came into this week in brilliant form but it was about slowing down and getting used to the new Racing Post site. We have had only 3 selections this week as I have kept things pretty tight. One of these was a short priced winner. The two other selections were 10/1 (placed) and 20/1 (Lost) so we have neither made or lost any ground on the week. I am getting used to the new site now and I’m feeling better about it but I dont think I’m ready yet to start thinking about account bets so I will stay with selections today.

In terms of selections on the day it has been a very tight call. I had 5 options for selections today and whilst none looked like account bet strength
they all looked closely matched and as good as each other so there is a serious danger I have picked the wrong bets of several options today but I will list my best options now so you can see them

Wetherby 12.10 – Glenary 3/1 was a potential selection
Chepstow 1.35 – Arctic Shadow 8/1 with Elton 6/1 a saver
Great Leighs 3.30 – Beat The Bell each way 6/1
Chepstow 3.45 – Giles Cross 4/1 is an each way option
Great Leighs 4.00 – Port De La Ponch could beat the fav

In the end I went with GILES CROSS as the selection today. He is generally 4/1 and 9/2 with some independants and I like his chance but it is a day where several appeal but there isnt much between then and none stand out as outstanding hence no account bet.

Blog Comment
Prices above correct at time of send to clients proper.
Best early price now at time of blog posting
7/2 at CentreBet, Blue Squareuare, Tote

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CHEPSTOW 3.45

7/4 Gullible Gordon, 4/1 Mr Bennett, 5/1 Kayf Aramis, 7/1 Faneuil Hall, 8/1 Giles Cross, 12/1 C’Monthehammers, 20/1 Champage A Gogo, 20/1 Mr Bee Gee, 25/1 Atherstone Hill, 33/1 Irish Power, 33/1 Off The Shelf, 50/1 Society Night, 66/1 North Run.

The rest of Chepstow is just poor trend races and races that dont offer me much at all so I just think its best to leave the majority of races alone. The Maiden Hurdle at 3.45 may just be worth a second mention. The favourite GULLIBLE GORDON is impossible to judge having flopped at odds on last time but it would worry me and connections have said they are mystified why he ran so badly and I would just rather go each way on an alternative and I think there is one. Horses that ran just once – and once this season and placed in that race had a really strong record and I would argue that GILES CROSS who fits that pattern is one of the best profiles in the race and would be my danger to the favourite and the best each way bet in the race. He was 3rd on his debut and the runner up came out and won the Grade 2 hurdle at Sandown yesterday.

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

A small snippet from my main service at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk is below

Saturday November 15th

No Account Bet

One Selection Today

Cheltenham 2.00

JOE LIVELY

Each Way 6/1
blog comment: was 6/1 earlier in the day when advised to full members

best bookmaker price now 5/1in many places eg PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, betdirect, bet365

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CHELTENHAM 2:00

SERVO SERVICES HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (4yo+) 3m3f110y

7/2 Opera Mundi, 5/1 Halcon Genelardais, 6/1 Joe Lively, 13/2 Parsons Legacy, 8/1 Beat The Boys,  Karanja, 10/1 Comply Or Die, 12/1 Simon, 14/1 Flintoff, 16/1 Dom D´Orgeval, 100/1 Sweet Diversion.

SELECTION – JOE LIVELY Each Way

This is a complicated long distance Handicap Chase over 3m 3f. Its pretty hard to read as you do not know which horses are about to have prep races like the Welsh National and don’t want penalties or weight rises. I can not have KARANJA with only 2 chase runs and he looks inexperienced as does DOM D’OGEVAL with just 6 runs. I
dont want SWEET DIVERSION as she is out of the weights. This race has never gone to a horse from a Novice Chase so BEAT THE BOYS has to go. COMPLY OR DIE the Grand National winner pulled up in this race last year with far less weight and I would imagine that winning the National and the 15lbs rise that cost him will stop him winning and
many National winners struggle to win in their next season. I can see why PARSONS LEGACY is favourite after winning well on his seasonal debut. However you can argue he is better on faster ground and that he is best fresh and a career high mark today will take some overcoming. The
2007 winner came from the Scottish Grand National just as FLINTOFF, OPERA MUNDI and HALCON GENELARDAIS all do. I dont want HALCON GENELARDAIS as he is having his first run of the year and has topweight. This could be a prep run for the Welsh National. He is on a career high mark. The only seasonal debutant that defied a big weight in this race was in 1999 (Hanakham) and he only won in a 5 runner race and was a Sun Alliance Chase winner and HALCON GENELARDAIS wouldnt be my choice today. FLINTOFF looks weak in the market and may need his seasnal debut this year.  OPERA MUNDI has big chances and has to be shortlisted. JOE LIVELY has a great chance after a strong
seasonal debut run. So to does SIMON who was 5th in this race last year. I opposed SIMON last year as he is a small horse and I wasnt convinced he would get round. He did though and came 5th on ground that was too fast for him. This year he has better ground. He also has 10lbs less weight. Whilst there is always the chance SIMON smacks one of these fences he has ran very well here in his 3 Cheltenham stats and he isnt out of this. If I was shortlisting in this race I would shortlist the following 3 horses

JOE LIVELY – OPERA MUNDI – SIMON

I had strong reasons why OPERA MUNDI lost his last two races last season and dnt worry about those runs and I do like the fact that 6 year olds have a good record in the race. Wouldnt surprise me if he won but I would have to question his stamina over 27.5 furlongs. He is a french bred and his sire has not sired a 3m + winner yet and he has not proven his stamina yet. With SIMON lacking a run this year I do think the best bet in this race has to be JOE LIVELY each way.

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday October 25th

Below is a snippet from my full member message today

Newbury 4.30

BLAZING BAILEY 5/2

BLAZING BAILEY is one of those “If” horses. He is a handicap certainty. He has to win “If” he is fit and “If” he can reproduce his form back on the flat. That makes it possible that he could either win this on the bridle or get beaten out of sight and few will have a confident idea which is more likely. I take the view that at 11/4
he could be the bet of the weekend and off the handicap mark he has he has to be backed and I will be surprised if he is beaten. He could well be Account Status. I have tipped many Account Bets with less confidence than I have in him but as I can not if asked assure you of his fitness I can not really make him one but he looks good to me and looks the best bet today.

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N E W B U R Y

I want to avoid most of Newbury today. Only the last race makes any betting appeal. I dont want to spend much time on the juvenile maidens or the big 2yo races as the angles in these races are not good enough to profit from. MONITOR CLOSELY would have to be the selection in the 1.10 race especially as I dont fancy King’s Song but these short priced maidens in big fields are usually best placed in each way doubles and with unknown dangers it only takes one to lower his colours. I would expect him to just about win.

I would have to mention BLAZING BAILEY though in the 4.30 race. Despite being a 6 year old that has not run since April he has been over hurdles for several years now where he has Top Class staying form over hurdles including a placed effort on the Triumph Hurdle and the Stayers Hurdle and a Grade 1 hurdle win in Ireland. This is a horse that
hasn’t seen the Flat since October 2005. Back then he was rated 62 on the Flat. His Hurdling Career has taken off and he was now reached a rating of 163 so he is now 101 lbs lower rated on the Flat and he has to be thrown in off 62. Normally an unscientific guide would be that you could expect to see a hurdles rating about 40-45lbs better than a
flat rating so for BLAZING BAILEY to have one 101 lbs higher does suggest that if he is anything near fit he must surely go close off a low Flat rating of 62. He looks a Handicap good thing to me and he may well end up as the best bet this weekend assuming he can run to form after an absence.

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11/4 earlier when full members got this. Best Price now 5/2 in several places including Ladbrokes, betfred and PaddyPower

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Posted under horse racing tips