T h i r s k 3.15

7/2 Dream Win, 7/2 Extraterrestrial, 9/2 Mountain Cat
11/2 Daring Dream, 13/2 Academy Blues, 10/1 Chosen Forever
12/1 Champagne Style, 16/1 Without Prejudice, Aerodynamic.

This is a Mile Handicap. I looked at all of these races and
I feel EXTRATERRESTRIAL is questionable as favourite.
He is well handicapped but exposed horses aged 6 or more
with 1 run this year coming up in trip had a 1-42 record in
254 similar races. That sole winner had a recent race and
he has been off 41 days and I see him as unsafe. That said
Do Not lay him. Not when well handicapped and when we
have a host of miserable profiles. DARING DREAM fails
similar angles. MOUNTAIN CAT is unsafe winning after
an absence at his age. DREAM WIN is the wrong age for
a lightly raced debutant. CHOSEN FOREVER has a long
absence. My best profile is ACADEMY BLUES. He was
below par last time but had excuses when beaten at Ascot
and I found 3 winners like him which is more than I can
say for any others. ACADEMY BLUES is my selection.

10/1 each way at bet365, BoyleSports , Coral

Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

I do like GALA CASINO STAR. I see a heavy draw bias. This
is a horse who has been out of form on sand. He is not a
sand horse though. He was badly hampered in Ireland at
Dundalk last time. Now He’s back on Grass and very well
treated he looks fitter than anything here and laid out to
take this race for Richard Fahey. He looks one that will
either winning easily or running badly but at 7/1 I Feel he
should be backed much as its a difficult race to win.

DONCASTER 5.55

Universalrecyclingcompany.co.uk Apprentice Handicap
(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f60y

11/2 Zaplamation, 6/1 Sharp Sovereign, 9/1 Blue Spinnaker
10/1 Rosbay, 12/1 King´s Counsel, 12/1 Law To Himself
14/1 Sharakti, 14/1 Swiftly Done, 14/1 Zafranagar
16/1 Frontline Phantom, 16/1 Hong Kong Island, 16/1 Koo
And The Gang, 16/1 Scarab, 20/1 Gala Casino Star, 20/1 Sail Home
25/1 General Tufto, 25/1 Star Addition, 33/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Easy Terms, 33/1 Red Skipper.

This race looks too difficult especially as it has always been a 12f race and this
year its switched to being a 10f race and that means there are zero past renewals.
I ought to mention  the draw which favours low Numbers.
At 4.50pm and 5.20pm there are handicaps over this distance which should show
how high numbers struggle.

Consider this.

* Since 2005 there are 31 Handicaps over this Course+Distance
* Thats 31 Handicaps with 10 or more runners in them
* Horses drawn 13 or more have a 1-104 record
* That sole winner (Timetable) was slightly unusual
* It was a 3yo Handicap and they raced up the middle of the track
* Because of the Draw I would avoid the following horses
* SHARAKTI – STAR ADDITION -ZAPLAMATION
* RED SKIPPER -SAIL HOME -BLUE SPINNAKER
* ROSBAY -   SHARP SOVEREIGN

I like GALA CASINO STAR. He was given a warm up
race in Ireland last week. Very badly impeded and I felt
he was there only for a warm up anyway. He was badly
blocked in for a furlong and ended the race on the bridle.
This time last year he started the season rated 88 yet is
only rated 69 this year.

GALA CASINO STAR 7/1 around earlier but now best priced 13/2 at betfred Tote Sky

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Posted under horse racing tips

1 Account Bet

Kempton 7.50

HIGHLAND RIVER 3/1

£100 Win

3/1 Ladbrokes – Boyles -betfred-BlueSq- Paddy P
3/1 Skybet -s james – 888sport- betdirect

CELTIC CONTRACTORS NURSERY (DIV II) (CLASS 6) (2yo,0-65) 1m

5/1 Highland River, 11/2 Artesium, Hawkspring, 7/1 Swiss Art, 8/1 Lujeanie, 9/1 Amazing Blue Sky, Impressionist Art, 16/1 Imperial Skylight, 20/1 Daily Planet, Merry May, Transfered.

* This is a Nursery race over a Mile
* There has been 55 of these races in November and December
* I want to oppose horses that come from 6f races
* In 55 races these horses have a 1-101 record
* At anytime of year there has been 143 nurseries at 8f
* Thats 143 races any time of year in class 6 and class 5
* Horses that came from 6f Nurseries were just 1-121
* That sole winner was Arcalis in 2002 at Pontefract
* He later won from a 30lbs higher mark and won a Grade 1 hurdle
* ARTESIUM is rejected as he comes from a 6f nursery
* LUJEANIE is rejected as he comes from a 6f nursery
* IMPERIAL SkyLIGHT is rejected coming from a 6f race
* He comes from a 6f claimer and no horse did that and won an 8f nursery
* MERRY MAY is rejected as a filly from a 6f race
* In 143 races at all times of year fillies doing this were 1-119
* HAWKSPRING comes from a 2yo selling race
* In 143 races only 6 horses came from sellers to win
* Horses that won a seller were 0-45 when running in these races
* With under 4 career starts these horses were 0-34
* HAWKSPRING has only had 2 career starts
* He will appeal to many and is well entered up this week
* I feel HAWKSPRING has a poor profile
* In the 55 races horses from 8f with under 4 runs were 1-57
* TRANSFERRED doesnt have a great profile either
* She is a filly absent 80 days
* She is also a filly that comes from a seller with 3 runs
* DAILY PLANET has just lost by 10.5 lengths over 7f
* In 143 races all year round I looked for similar types
* Horses that lost by Only 6 + lengths over 7f or shorter
* These horses were 1-113 when having 7 or more runs
* In 55 similar nurseries at this time of year
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths in Nurseries over 7f or shorter were 1-94
* DAILY PLANET fails that and looks outclassed
* IMPRESSIONIST ART is a filly with 3 runs and 80 days off
* Fillies absent 7 weeks or more won just 2 of the 143 races
* None had her weight or came from conditions races
* Fillies with under 4 runs struggled in 143 races all year round
* Only 1 managed to win with 9st 3lbs or more
* She was well beaten last time and has a poor profile
* AMAZING BLUE Sky comes from a 7f maiden after 3 runs
* He also has an unpleasant 59 day absence to overcome
* I have found 1 winner with a similar profile to him
* Overall he looks to hold no more than a small chance
* SWISS ART has a reasonable profile if he stays
* I dont have a problem with him
* HIGHLAND RIVER has a superb profile
* Horses that were 2nd in recent 8f nurseries were strong
* With 5 runs as he has they had a 2-4 record
* HIGHLAND RIVER was handicapped after 3 “quiet runs”
* His 4th start was a pretty hard task
* He was dropped from an 8f maiden to a 6f Nursery
* He ran a very creditable 2nd in a 0-60 nursery that day
* Last time out he ran in an 8f Nursery
* He had a horrible profile that day as he came from a 6f race
* All the problems with 6f runners are described above
* HIGHLAND RIVER still managed an excellent 2nd that day
* That was a competetive 14 runner race betting 9/2 the field
* I think he is light years ahead of these on his profile
* HIGHLAND RIVER is a Confident Bet

Posted under horse racing tips