The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Sky

Live prices at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-07-16/ripon/16-30/betting/

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWBURY 3.25 – THEATRE DANCE 6/1 Each Way

THEATRE DANCE is a horse that might unsettle
us especially if he has to be pushed a bit early but I
have negatives in the race. He is from a stable that
are on fire. He’s well handicapped and must now be
fit for the 1st time this season and I like his chance.

NEWBURY 3.25

7/2 Ogee, 5/1 Rey Nacarado, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Briery Fox
8/1 Scots Dragoon 8/1 Theatre Dance, 10/1 Double Dizzy
12/1 Noble Crusader , 20/1 Burren Legend.

* No Preview just the profiles I did not like
* The following are all Negatives with Poor Profiles

NOBLE CRUSADER – Wrong coming from 20f or less
MAKTU – Too much weight with a step up in trip
OGEE – Not convinced with 2 runs this year
BRIERY FOX – Too old for 1-2-3 runs this year
BURREN LEGEND – Didnt do enough last time
SCOTS DRAGOON – Exposed from Novice Chase no thanks

SELECTION – THEATRE DANCE each way is my choice

6/1 various spots inc Sky bet365 Tote VC BoyleSports Blue Square

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

LINGFIELD 4.10

7/4 Becausewecan, 9/2 Dance The Star, 7/1 Cluain Alainn,
Samarinda, 10/1 Cashpoint.

This is a nasty framed race with 7 runners. Its a 0-92 handicap over 12 furlongs.
There has been 176 similar races at this time of year.
If you look at 4 year olds like BECAUSEWECAN who are having their
seasonal debuts when they have had 9 or more career starts their strike
rate dips dramatically and they have a 1-35 record with that winner having
far less weight. That would encourage me to oppose him first time out from his career high
handicap mark.  Equally no 4yo first time out debutant was like
CLUAIN ALAINN and he wouldnt interest me either. I think it is asking too
much of CASHPOINT to win this from a maiden and a small stable.
I think its between DANCE THE STAR and  SAMARINDA who finished
2nd and 5th in the same handicap  last time. DANCE THE STAR has a solid chance.
Statistically SAMARINDA has an excellent profile as a 7yo running well last time.
All his wins have been at shorter but he hasnt had a chance to show he stays properly
at 12f. He ran well over 12f last time but that was inconclusive.
He is probably value  but DANCE THE STAR did beat him last time.
I think I would have to bet one and save on another.
As SAMARINDA is better handicapped and a better price I’d see him as the best
option. Therefore DANCE THE STAR has to be the danger
but SAMARINDA the bet at around 7/1

SELECTION – SAMARINDA
7/1 betfred bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

Best Bet today is ICELANDIC 4/1 in the Doncaster 2.40.
He won the race last year and I think he can do it again in
an easier renewal full of negatives. Going with him only as
a suggestion today. I did think about a Full Bet on him but
the stable are just coming out of a virus and havent had a
winner since April. Even with that worry I still feel he is
going to win this race but I would have liked to have seen
a few more runners and winners from the stable. I thought
about an each way bet but I think he is a better win bet. I
did think about splitting a bet with two win bets and the
double with PEPE SIMO in the first at Wincanton but he
is odds on now and I would only have done that if he’d
have been bigger than evens. In the end on what is a hard
Saturday without any all weather support I think the best
thing to do is stay with ICELANDIC as a mention. He is
the one horse in the race that I could bet. Think he wins.

Doncaster 2.40

ICELANDIC 4/1

****************************************************
****************************************************

T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

DONCASTER 2.40

Best Odds Guaranteed At Totesport.com Wentworth Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Sir Gerry, 4/1 Icelandic, 5/1 Prescription, 6/1 Able Master 8/1 Desert Phantom,
10/1 Festoso, 12/1 Fullandby, 20/1 Arthur´s Edge, 20/1 Crystal Moments,
25/1 Lovely Thought, 33/1 Saxford 50/1 Protector, 500/1 Vanadium.

* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 16 renewals of this race
* There’s been 35 similar races elsewhere at this time of year
* VANADIUM cant win at the weights
* I see the following horses as weak statistically
* All past winners were aged 7 or lower
* PROTECTOR is older than any past winner
* All past winners had at least 3 runs that season
* I would ignore all horses that havent had that
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that absent 398 days
* His trainer states he is very burly and will need the run
* He wont be placed if he is as unfit as he suggests
* SAXFORD fails that and looks badly underraced
* SIR GERRY also fails this with 1 run this year
* SIR GERRY also has a 178 day absence to overcome
* His trainer says he will come on a lot for the run
* SIR GERRY has also downgraded stables this year
* I dont see him as fit enough to win
* Horses from 5f races have struggled
* Only 1 past winner came from 7f as well
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-67
* FESTOSO fails that and looks opposable
* Hard to win a Listed race on the back of a poor last run
* I dont see an older filly like her overcoming that
* 3 year olds have the worst record
* Those aged 3 with 7 + career runs were 1-60
* ABLE MASTER fails that and has 14 runs
* Thats quite an exposed 3 year old
* ABLE MASTER also has to come down in trip
* Only 1 past winner dropped in trip to win this
* No 3 year old like him managed it in any similar races
* CRYSTAL MOMENTS has the same problem
* She is another 3yo coming down in distance
* She looks too exposed to be doing that
* LOVELY THOUGHT fails the same statistic
* She is not going to win an all aged Listed race
* Not coming from a Class 5 handicap for 3 year olds

* SHORTLIST

* FULLANDBY – PRESCRIPTION – ICELANDIC

* I am confident enough that one of these should win
* FULLANDBY and PRESCRIPTION come from handicaps
* They come from Class 3 handicaps
* I looked at the 35 similar races to this
* There were 8 winners that came from handicaps
* All 8 winners came from Class 2 handicaps
* Those that came from handicaps in lower grades were 0-40
* This suggests that this pair could fall short of whats required
* I think you can give them a better chance than that though
* FULLANDBY won easily just 4 days ago and is very fit
* FULLANDBY has ran in 8 Listed -Group Class races before
* All he has to show for it is one third place
* He usually gets found out at this level
* I think this is his best chance of winning one
* I think FULLANDBY will place
* I think he is one of the best place only bets today
* PRESCRIPTION also comes from a Class 3 handicap
* Statistically thats not really enough
* If you take the 35 similar Listed class sprints
* All 35 winners had all ran in at least Class 2 before
* PRESCRIPTON has not done that yet
* Every horse in this race has done that except two
* PRESCRIPTION and Arthurs Edge have yet to do that
* PRESCRIPTION is respected as he finally gets her ground
* Purely on her profile she ought to find 1-2 too good

SELECTION

ICELANDIC – Win Bet
FULLANDBY – Saver or place bet

ICELANDIC won this last year and is solid again. His
trainer has been savaged by the Virus all year and has
given a note of caution because of this. He states …..

“The year has been a disaster. We are probably
over the worst but whether Icelandic is 100 per cent I
don’t know. Soft ground will be in his favour”

That looks the only obstacle to him winning. He won
this easily last year from the same stall.  On Ratings
this is a much weaker race. This race on average official
ratings is 8lbs weaker than last years race.
This is a horse that hasnt been fit or right all year.
His last run at Ascot was much better than it looked.
He wasnt fancied. He was facing a 55 day break and its hard
for a 7 year old to win a Group Race when facing that absence.
The race he ran in last time was a much better class race than
this where every horse was rated 101 or more. He ran much better
than it looked staying on without being given a hard race
and not having the run of the race at all. He should be at
his peak today. Older horses have an excellent record in
this race. Horses like him aged 7 are 3-7 in this contest.
I think ICELANDIC will peak today and win this again.
I see FULLANDBY as the danger and its up to you if
you want saver on him around 7/1 or want a place bet
on him instead as a saver. I expect ICELANDIC to win.

Posted under horse racing tips