EPSOM 5.45

INVESTEC DERBY (GROUP 1) (3yo) 1m4f10y

11/4 Sea The Stars, 7/2 Fame And Glory, 4/1 Rip Van Winkle, 7/1 Gan Amhras, 8/1 Black Bear Island, 14/1 Masterofthehorse, 20/1 Age Of Aquarius, 20/1 Crowded House, 25/1 Kite Wood, 33/1 Golden Sword, 50/1 Montaff, 66/1 Debussy.

The Epsom Derby comes too soon in the year and doesnt
really offer great trends. Normally I would be against all
the horses from the 2000 Guineas but it is not a year to
do that with confidence as they are mob handed in today’s
race. I dont have a strong opinion. I have just listened to a lot of different opinions and read a lot about the race.When you have 6 Aidan O’Brien runners and the decision
by Johnny Murtagh a surprise to many you realise that
you cant know enough about the Irish horses to form a
confident view. Jamie Spencer was talking recently about
why he feels SEA THE STARS wont stay and why he sees
him as having too much speed and I consider that very
plausable and he isnt for me. FAME AND GLORY isnt
for me as he has been rejected leading to suspicions that
a horse that won over 10f as a juvenile may be too slow
to win the race. CROWDED HOUSE and KITE WOOD dont appeal well beaten in the Dante. There are too many doubts for me about RIP VAN WINKLE. The track may hurt him. He isnt sure to stay. I like GAN AMHRAS and BLACK BEAR ISLAND or at least feel they offer quite a good return for the risk. I think the best risk here is to try some forecasts. It will be pot luck. I am taking the view that SEA THE STARS will lose for a lack of stamina but will still go very close. I think he could easily finish second. I intend to have some Novely forecasts in this race all built around the prediction SEA THE STARS is going to go very close but lose out to stamina.

Two Suggested Forecasts

* Gan Amhras to beat Sea The Stars

* Black Bear Island to beat Sea The Stars

Posted under Major Horse Races

Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN - NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners  of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won - the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had  7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO - POSSOL - FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION - UNGARO Each Way 14/1  Blue Squareuareuare

CentreBet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however . it looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday December 13th

No Bets Today

We have lost Cheltenham after an unscheduled inspection
this morning and thats robbed the message of several good
previews and possible bets. Very dissapointing as it was
a mouth watering card. As Lingfield has also been lost as
well there really has not been much I could offer today so
I am afraid its a quiet Saturday looking at a handful of the Southwell
races and no advised bets. The weather has won today and turned the
day into a poor racing day.

If you need an interest today

SOUTHWELL 1.15

13/8 Savaronola, 5/2 Eureka Moment, 3/1 Colourful Move, 10/1 Piermarini, 14/1 Jayyid, 16/1 Monaadi, 100/1 Sweet Seville.

This is a 12f maiden for horses aged 3 and 4 and it forces a guess as so many of these are hard to beat.
I’d look to oppose the Curley Leisure horse SAVARONOLA.
He looks to have been over estimated like most of his connections runners.
I dont like the fact he has been hurdling. I think there is a stamina doubt.
His sire has never bred a 12f winner yet and a long absence doesnt help.
I dont want a horse like COLOURFUL MOVE as he was sold for just £800 recently and that gives
volumes away about both his soundness and ability.
The big priced  Monaadi and Sweet Seville look out of their depth .PIERMARINI is out having been hammered in a claiming race.

I could only bet EUREKA MOMENT or JAYYID who were 3rd and 4th in the same maiden last time.
EUREKA MOMENT would be my choice.

Best Current Odds 11/4 Ladbrokes, Tote , Blue Squareuare

Posted under horse racing tips