I have full analysis for most Cheltenham races today for full members

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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One race today for the free blog.

CHELTENHAM 2.40

William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

5/1 Bensalem, 11/2 The Package, 10/1 Character Building
10/1 Theatrical Moment, 12/1 Exmoor Ranger, 12/1 Ogee
14/1 The Tother One, 16/1 Casey Jones, 16/1 Niche Market
16/1 Razor Royale, 20/1 Kicks For Free, 20/1 Nenuphar Collonges
25/1 New Alco, 25/1 Officier De Reserve, 28/1 Chief Dan George 33/1
Beat The Boys, 33/1 Joe Lively, 33/1 Offshore Account 33/1 Tatenen,
50/1 Comply Or Die, 50/1 Knowhere 66/1 Bible Lord, 66/1 Stan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The ante post chatter in this race has been dominated by
two seemingly well handicapped horses in BENSALEM
and THE PACKAGE dominating the front of the market.

* THE PACKAGE has been saved for this race
* He has not run for 95 days to protect his handicap mark
* Personally I am happy to accept he is well handicapped
* I dont think its as obvious as many think though
* The issue for me is will he defy an absence of 95 days
* Statistically I would have to say no for these reasons
* Cheltenham has had 132 Handicaps since 1993
* Thats 132 Handicaps at any distance - hurdle or chase
* Thats every handicap run at the festival in 17 years
* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days
* I then look at those like THE PACKAGE with 13 + runs
* There were 8 winners that did that
* None were aged 6 or 7 as THE PACKAGE is
* What I did find was the 8 winners had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* 7 of the 8 winners had Grade 1 form and all 8 had Grade 1-2
* THE PACKAGE has not got that
* Therefore no horse like him won a handicap with that break
* None with 13 + runs won absent 80 + days
* Not without a run in Grade 2 or better and he doesnt
* Thats what puts me off THE PACKAGE in this race

* BENSALEM is light on experience with 4 Chase starts
* He fell in one of those but last years winner did 3 chase runs
* I think you can overlook that because of last years winner
* That said last years winner had the ride of the season
* He looked easily beaten before a brilliant ride won it
* I dont mind that he has no handicap form
* His Jumping is the main problem though
* He makes several mistakes and isnt a fluent jumper
* He has never run in a Chase with more than 5 runners either
* BENSALEM has not raced on ground as fast as this
* His chance depends on how well he jumps
* Especially in a big field on ground thats not very soft
* I see risks in THE PACKAGE and BENSALEM
* I think I would rather bet BENSALEM of the pair
* I see BENSALEM as a Saver bet

* NICHE MARKET is pretty exposed with 17 chase starts
* That would worry me about a horse with 11st 6lbs
* The last 10 winners and 14 of the last 16 had less weight
* He isnt like any past winner that had a large weight
* He comes from a Grade 2 Chase last time out
* All 28 horses doing that in this race lost
* Its not a good preparation for a handicap here
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the festival since 1993
* Thats every Handicap over any distance
* Horses coming from Grade 1 or Grade 2 chases were poor
* Those with 10st 11lbs or more had a 1-135 record
* That horse was far less exposed and much younger
* This has never really been his track
* He has run well here before but both wins were right handed
* He could also have Aintree in mind rather than today
* I think he has an unimpressive profile

* THEATRICAL MOMENT has 4 Chase starts
* He has a nasty 78 day absence though
* It strikes me that if you want a horse with 4 chase starts
* Wouldnt you rather have Bensalem ?
* He has a much more recent run
* He has Graded form and THEATRICAL MOMENT doesnt
* He is only carrying 1lbs more weight
* That tells me THEATRICAL MOMENT has a bit to do
* Bought for good money by Jonjo O’Neil
* Improved since a Breathing operation
* His chance in perspective to Bensalem does put me off
* I gave an interesting stat when looking at The Package
* No Cheltenham Handicap of any kind went to this type
* Absence of 80 + days - 13 + carrer starts - No Grade 1/2 form
* Thats any of Cheltenhams 132 handicaps since 1993
* THEATRICAL MOMENT only just scraped through that stat
* Had he been absent a further 4 days he would have failed it
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more in this race have won
* However they all had form in a Grade 1 race before
* THEATRICAL MOMENT hasnt ran in any Graded race
* He is light on chasing experience with 4 runs
* There was a winner from a Novice Chase with no Graded form
* That was Fork Lightening (2004) but he had a recent run
* THEATRICAL MOMENT doesnt come out good enough

* CHIEF DAN GEORGE isnt out of this statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles than he has
* My biggest problem with him is the track
* I think he is best on a Flatter track
* I think the Scottish National is a better option

* RAZOR ROYALE won the Racing Post Chase last time
* He had a hard race last doing that 17 days ago
* That said two past winners were 1st and 2nd in that race
* They both won this. Malborough was the same age in 2000
* He did have a lot less weight though
* Statistically there’s no reason why he shouldnt do the double
* His weight of 11st 3lbs is higher than ideal
* The last 10 winners and 14 of the last 16 had less weight
* He has also been on the go since September
* Very few past winners ran as early in the year as that
* He has more runs this year than most winners
* There are some concerns and it wont be easy for him

* OGEE has 4 chase runs and is a little inexperienced
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* Only 2 past winners came from a Novice Chase
* They were both 8 year olds and he is a 7yo
* I looked at 7 year olds from Novice Chases
* Those with 10st 9lbs or less were 0-5
* They did have a second in 2000 but he had more experience
* I can’t match OGEE perfectly but it’s not a bad profile
* I think there has to be a worry about the track
* He has lots of form on sharp tracks and flat tracks
* He goes well left handed and has run well on other tracks
* It would be a worry but its far from certain to be a problem
* Its also interesting very few winners had Flat careers

I will be amazed if CHARACTER BUILDING can win this
race with just 1 run this season and a career high mark. I
would not want him at twice his price. COMPLY OR DIE
is rejected for the similar reasons. THE TOTHER ONE is
also rejected. I could not have any horse with 11st 12lbs
absent 78 days. I looked at all the handicaps run at this
festival since 1993 and no horse had been absent  more
than 7 weeks with 11st10lbs or more and he should have
too much to do. I looked at every handicap Chase run at
the Festival before at any distance. There were very few
seasonal debutants win. None were aged 8 (0-48) and
None did it without Grade 1 or Grade 2 form before so
OFFICIER DE RESERVE has to go. No horse has won
any handicap chase absent like NEW ALCO over two
seasons and he is being aimed at the National.

OLLIE MAGERN isnt up to this now. STAN has poor
recent form and a miserable preparation. BIBLE LORD
hates big fields and isnt fanciable. KNOWHERE looks
vulnerable now he takes on younger horses after his
Veterans Chase run. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT has not
been the same horse since Injury forced him to have
a long break and he has not done much since and he
looks a horse aimed at the Aintree Grand National.

BEAT THE BOYS has been off 95 days and as he is
also lacking Grade 1 form and has 13 or more career
runs he is another horse like The Package that fails
the statistic showing no horse has won a Handicap
at the festival before absent that long like him. I am
against JOE LIVELY too old for his weight and with
the wrong type of preparation. I wouldnt want a 6yo
like TATENEN and he doesnt look right at all.

* CASEY JONES problem is his weight of 11st 5lbs
* There were 2 winners that had 11st 3lbs or more
* Both had 5 or more runs this year and a recent run
* CASEY JONES has just 2 runs and a long absence
* No winner like him came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* I think his weight and absence really hurt him
* There is evidence this may not be his track

STRONG PROFILES

* NENUPHAR COLLONGES is worth considering
* He is a previous Festival winner
* I shortlisted him in the Hennessy last time
* I shortlisted him in this race last year
* He was beaten less than a length in this race last year
* He has got an absence of 108 days
* That said he has won fresh before
* On his profile he is interesting
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks
* Previous run in a Grade 1 race
* 2-3-4 runs this season
* 13 or more career starts
* Weight of no more than 10st 11lbs
* Horses in this race with that profile were 2-5
* Joes Edge (2007) had that profile
* Wichita Lineman (2009) also had that profile
* I would have liked a more recent run
* I would have liked a better last run
* Easy to see he is second string behind Bensalem
* That said I think he has a fair chance in this
* I think he has a much better profile than it looks

* EXMOOR RANGER is a Positive
* Unexposed 8 year olds like did excellently
* When 1-2-3 last time over 3m or more
* When not beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* When having 3-4-5 runs that year
* These horses had a 5-13 record
* The problem with him is his weight
* All 5 winners in the 5-13 record had 10st 9lbs or less
* Those like him with 11st or more were 0-2
* I am not too disheartened about that
* 1 of them came second and the other had a slipped saddle
* EXMOOR RANGER is a horse I feel positive about
* If I could change 1 think I’d give him 5lbs less weight
* I Would have liked more track form as well

* KICKS FOR FREE is reasonable statistically
* Two runs this year and an absence doesnt worry me
* He has Grade 1 Class which is important
* He is at his best when Fresh
* 2 past winners had the same profile as he does
* He is still lightly raced over Chases and could improve
* He has placed at two festivals before over hurdles
* He has been rejected by Ruby Walsh which is an issue
* I still give him a good chance in this race

SELECTION

NENUPHAR COLLONGES each way 22/1 Ladbrokes s james VC

KICKS FOR FREE each way 25/1 Ladbrokes bet365 VC

Posted under horse racing tips

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f - 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN - NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners  of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won - the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had  7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO - POSSOL - FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION - UNGARO Each Way 14/1  Blue Squareuareuare

CentreBet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however . it looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 155

Friday 29th August

1 Account Bet

Todays Account Bet

Hamilton 4.15

SUPERIOR STAR

£50 Each Way 8/1

£100 Staked on the Day

SUPERIOR STAR is 8/1 with Hills -s james-betdirect - Tote
SUPERIOR STAR is 15/2 with Blue Square -Corals -888Sport

SATURDAY

Going to change strategy tomorrow and take all the pressure
off the Saturday message. I will post trends and angles for most races on Saturday on the message board this afternoon and evening. The very best races I want to bet in I will save for the E Mail. It will probably be a 2-3-4 race message. You will be able to see every angle elsewhere on the message board or if you cant access that or don’t want you just drop me an e mail and I will send you all the other thoughts separately. I am doing this as Sunday racing has to be covered and we have 2 Friday messages so it will help to reduce the time pressure
a great deal. Shorter message planned tomorrow

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

HAMILTON 4:15 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

3/1 Wednesdays Boy, 9/2 Five Wishes, Primo Way, 5/1 Mystical Ayr, 6/1 Superior Star, 8/1 Apres Ski,
14/1 Augustus John, Middlemarch, 33/1 Sydneyroughdiamond.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over a Mile
* Hamilton have had 38 similar races at this time of year
* I watched the down in class MIDDLEMARCH on tape
* I dont think he ran well enough to bet even in this class
* He was just struggling rather than shaping like a winner
* I would oppose APRES SKI as he comes up from 6f
* Horses that did that had pretty poor records
* AUGUSTUS JOHN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just 2 runs this year and well beaten last year
* Sydneyroughdiamond looks outclassed
* I think this is between the front 5 in the betting
* FIVE WISHES and PRIMO WAY were 1st and 2nd last time
* That was in the same race and it was only a claimer
* They will be close together again and hard to split
* I Looked at Fillies coming from claimers like FIVE WISHES
* They were poor (1-50) and shes 0-9 in handicaps
* That 0-9 record was mainly from far lower handicap marks
* WEDNESDAYS BOY and MYSTICAL AYR are also respected
* They were 1st and 4th in the same 0-64 handicap at Ayr 2 runs ago
* MYSTICAL AYR has since come out and run well
* WEDENSDAYS BOY came out and won at Ayr yesterday
* That was a 0-58 but he did it well and he must go close
* Running yesterday gives him a serious advantage in my view
* All these 4 look in the right grade and have reasonable chances
* WEDENSDAYS BOY would easily be my preference of these
* I just wonder if we have not got a clever dark one here
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks well worth a bet
* SUPERIOR STAR interests me a fair bit off “57″
* He was running well off marks of 70 last year
* Richard Fahey trained him then and he is now with N Wilson
* If you think about it this horse probably hasnt been staying 10f
* He is by Superior Premium who was a sprinter
* The Dam was also a sprinter
* Superior Premium has yet to breed a 10f winner yet
* All his siblings like Baltic King -Domingues and others are sprinters
* Look at his last 9 races since November 2007
* He still managed a 3rd 3rd and 4th from 3 hurdle starts last winter
* That may have fooled people into thinking he will stay further on the flat
* I think a horse like him has little chance of staying over hurdles
* I dont think he has a prayer of staying 10f
* In Febuary he ran ok at Southwell but he wouldnt have stood out that day
* He was after all coming from Hurdles and it was only Febuary
* He did nothing wrong at Warwick in March
* His last 4 runs all had valid excuses
* You can take out his last run over 10f - he didnt stay that day
* Watched the video and he was a blatant non stayer
* Before stamina gave out he was running a blinder
* Take out that run and his 10f Beverely run as well in July
* He flopped at Thirsk and I am not sure why
* It was a rough race - he missed the break as well and was eased
* He was also badly hampered at Pontefract as well
* The racing post rate him “significantly better than the bare form”
* Back to a mile in a small field his horse must go well
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks a strong bet
* I would have to consider a “save” on WEDNESDAYS BOY
* Alternately an each way option

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips