C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

2/1 Aerial, 9/2 The Giant Bolster, 13/2 Poquelin
8/1 Tamarinbleu, 9/1 Araldur, 9/1 Chance Du Roy
9/1 Woolcombe Folly, 14/1 Hell4s Bay
16/1 Tartak, 25/1 Billie Magern.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m 5f
* There are only 12 similar races at this time of year.
* Look at the 12 Cheltenham races
* Horses aged 6 and 7 have a 0-37 record
* That seems quite a revealing statistic in these races
* I’d oppose horses aged 6 or 7 with that record
* Especially as the first two favourites fail this.
* AERIAL – I am opposing him as a 6yo
* THE GIANT BOLSTER – Avoid him as a 7yo
* BILLIE MAGERN – doesnt offer me enough
* HELL4S BAY – Not in good enough form
* TARTAK – Too much of a fitness doubt for me
* WOOLCOMBE FOLLY – Vulnerable from 2m
* TAMARINBLEU – Asking lots for a 12yo

Shortlist

* POQUELIN – The class horse but a lot to do
* CHANCE DU ROY – Big chance
* ARALDUR – No problems with his profile

S e l e c t i o n

CHANCE DU ROY  10/1 Each Way Ladbrokes bet365

Last time out CHANCE DU ROY was beaten 16 lengths
by Quincy Des Pictons who was rated 119. There was no
shame in that. It was heavy ground and Welsh National
day and CHANCE DU ROY had topweight and gave him
33lbs weight. Thats a massive ammount and when you
consider than Quincy Des Pictons is now rated 137 then
I think he had an impossible task that day. Its interesting
the 3rd horse (Consigliere) came out and won 20 lengths
next time out. CHANCE DU ROY is the one getting the
weight today and I like his chance.

Posted under horse racing tips

Last day of the flat season today but we are seeking a profit in one of the National Hunt races at Sandown.

S a n d o w n  3.30

3/1 Hold On Julio, 7/2 Very Stylish, 6/1 Earth Planet
7/1 Moleskin, 8/1 Craiglands, 8/1 Pak Jack, 8/1 Soixante
9/1 Appleaday, 50/1 Local Present.

This is an interesting 3m Handicap Chase. I looked at
all similar races at this time of year. They all have to
be considered expect maybe LOCAL PRESENT. I am
going to oppose VERY STYLISH. He won on his chase
debut but that was a long time ago now and I wasnt too
impressed. I’m in no hurry to bet PAK JACK as he is a
11 year old seasonal debutant with topweight and has a
career high mark and poor win record. I cant rule out
several of these but two horses did stand out here.

HOLD ON JULIO

Initially I was going to make him a negative as there
are no Handicap Chases won by horses coming from a
Maiden hunter Chase. Then I can across this statistic.

* Horses coming from all Hunter Chases
* Having Under 9 career starts
* First Time Out
* There were 9 horses with that profile
* These horses had a very interesting 5-9 record

It strikes me the only reason to run a Hunter Chaser
like HOLD ON JULIO in a race like this is because he
is very well handicapped. He has won point to points
as well as his Hunter Chase win and Alan King has not
bought him for nothing. I have to see him in a different
light despite the fact the brilliant 5-9 record of Hunter
Chasers doesnt include winners from maiden hunters.

EARTH PLANET

There is a very good record in this race for horses
aged 9 that have recent runs especially over 3m or
more. Having a recent run has been a big help here.
When you consider the Whip Rules now that might
even be more of a help to EARTH PLANET. After
all apart from the “no hoper” All seven of his main
rivals are seasonal debutants. EARTH PLANET has
a considerable fitness advantage with 4 races so Far
this season. He has just placed at Cheltenham in a
similar Class race.  Yes he is frustrating and hard to
win with but he consistently runs well and has form
on right handed tracks and has shown he has enough
ability to win this race. Given how helpful its been
to have a recent run in this race I have to fancy him.

Selection

I do like two here a lot. I feel I have to have a saver
on HOLD ON JULIO around 3/1 but I think there is
a very good chance EARTH PLANET’s fitness may
get him home today and I like him each way.

EARTH PLANET 7/1 Each Way
HOLD ON JULIO 3/1 + Saver Bet

Best odds at time of free blog post

Earth Planet 7/1 Ladbrokes -  Tote

Hold On Julio VC – Tote – betfred

.

Posted under horse racing tips

S a t u r d a y   A y r   3.20

By popular demand the race I am looking at here today for
the free blog is the Ayr Gold Cup.

I feel I have something a bit stronger in the 3.55 at Ayr
but that is for full members of my paid service.
Quite rightly they moan if I post too much up here for free.

A few of you have asked about my thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup
so here they are.

It is a huge runner field and I wont be investing heavily myself but
if you forced a tenner into my hand and told me to bet it this is why I would do.

William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1993
* There has been 77 Similar handicaps elsewhere

* Horses aged 7 or more struggled
* None were absent as long as TAJNEED
* None were absent as long as EVENS AND ODDS
* REGAL PARADE doesnt come out well aged 7
* Not without a recent run and from Listed Class
* ANCIENT CROSS is an exposed 7yo from 6f
* He has just Class 2 Form similar horses were 1-59
* ANCIENT CROSS has more weight than that winner
* Those like him running within 2 weeks are 0-36
* ANCIENT CROSS isnt as good a fit as I want
* MAYSON shouldnt win this aged 3 with 1 run this year
* Fillies aged 3 need at least 6 runs that season
* DARAJAAT fails that with 4 runs
* MAJESTIC MYLES looks the wrong type of 3yo
* Those down in trip with 9 + runs struggled
* None had anything like his weight and I cant match him
* In 77 races no exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* Those that tried had a 0-66 record
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected
* LIGHT FROM MARS fails that and is rejected
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails that and is rejected
* Exposed horses absent over a Month were 3-175
* None have won this race
* None were aged 4 like PEPPER LANE
* None were fillies like PEPPER LANE
* GROUP THERAPY – Wrong as exposed 6yo from 5f
* ANNE OF KIEV is a mare and fails the same statistic
* BREATHLESS KISS is wrong as an exposed filly from 5f
* I looked at Exposed horses from 7f races
* Those aged 6 or more were just 1-60
* Those without a run in the last week were 0-56
* CASTLES IN THE AIR fails that and has a bad draw
* BRAVE PROSPECTOR fails that from 7f
* HIGH STANDING also looks wrong doing this
* There were 13 winners coming from 7f
* None had just 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* ETON RIFLES fails that
* Those aged 6 or more like him needed 8 + runs that year
* ETON RIFLES falls short for me
* MAC4S POWER is exposed and from a 6f Listed race
* Horses with this profile had a 1-28 record
* That was the 1996 winner of this Royale Figurine
* She was a 4yo filly and had 6 runs this year
* MAC4S POWER is an older 5yo and a Male
* MAC4S POWER – Can’t match him as well as I’d like
* He has a tough handicap mark on ground not ideal
* SON OF THE CAT has the same profile
* He is exposed aged 5 from a Listed race
* SON OF THE CAT has a tough handicap mark
* BELOW ZERO is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* Similar horses had a 1-31 record in 77 races
* That winner had less weight than he does
* Recently punished by the handicapper he is unsafe
* OUR JONATHAN is 4 and comes from a 6f handicap
* He has a Months absence as well
* I found 2 winners that had that profile
* Both winners had 8st 8lbs or less
* OUR JONATHAN has 9st 6lbs
* I see him borderline shortlistable but the weights a worry
* The Handicapper does look in charge
* WAFFLE is an unexposed 5yo from a 6f handicap
* He has a recent race beaten about 6 lengths
* The 2000 winner of this race shared that profile
* That winner did have 20lbs less weight though
* I Dont see WAFFLE as well treated
* Having 1 career win drags his numbers down as well
* Borderline shortlistable he is respected but unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* CROISULTAN is very hard to read
* Irish horse that comes from a Group race 7 days ago
* He looks short of runs this year for an exposed 5yo
* Coming from Group 3 races is not the norm either
* In His favour is strong recent form
* I would see him more as a Neutral profile
* He is unorthodox and not statistically strong
* I shouldnt impose English stats on Irish horses though
* CROISULTAN is respected but very hard to read

* DUNGANNON is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* Similar horses running within a month did win 2 races
* There is a Silver Cup winner like him
* No Gold Cup winner but DUNGANNON is shortlistable

* PASTORAL PLAYER is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* He runs within 2 weeks and has 5-6-7 runs this season
* In 77 races there were 2 horses with that profile
* These finished 1st and 6th
* PASTORAL PLAYER is very shortlistable

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 4 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 1-4 record
* The winner was the 2005 winner of this race (Presto Shinko)
* COLONEL MAK won the Silver Cup last year as a 3yo
* That shows me he has a good chance in this years race
* COLONEL MAK is shortlisted

Summary

CROISULTAN – Hard to read. Neutral profile
DUNGANNON – Almost right and respected
PASTORAL PLAYER – Like his profile
COLONEL MAK – Decent chance

Final Selection

Split Stake Bet

CROISULTAN  16/1 s james
COLONEL MAK 16/1 s james

Full live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-17/ayr/15-20/betting/

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

N e w m a r k e t   2.45

11/2 Clear Ice, 6/1 Witchry, 7/1 Time Medicean 8/1 Sutton Veny 10/1 Sarah4s Art, 12/1 Whitechapel, 16/1 Berbice, Den4s Gift 16/1 Emma4s Gift, 16/1 Rylee Mooch, 16/1 Sunshine Always 16/1 Tislaam, 16/1 Zowington, Lady Florence, 20/1 Silver Rime 25/1 Kinigi, 25/1 Quarrel, 33/1 Admirable Duchess, 33/1 Tadalavil.

* This is a race for Grey horses only
* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* There are 265 similar races at this time of year
* SUTTON VENY is a negative as a mare from 5f
* Mares from 5f races won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-41
* SUTTON VENY only has 3 runs this season
* SUTTON VENY looks weak with a career high mark
* ADMIRABLE DUCHESS fails the same statistic
* She is underraced for a mare from 5f and career high mark
* TIME MEDICEAN comes from a 5f race
* He has a months absence doing this which is a worry
* There were winners with that profile
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-49
* TIME MEDICEAN fails that with 4 runs this year
* TIME MEDICEAN won a 5f handicap last time
* No winners did that without a run in 2 weeks
* TIME MEDICEAN doesnt come out that well
* QUARREL – Must be opposed as a seasonal debutant
* WHITECHAPEL only has 1 run this season
* No winners came down in trip with 1 run that year (0-32)
* Well beaten last time WHITECHAPEL looks unsafe
* ZOWINGTON is 9 and absent 60 days
* No horse his age has won absent as long
* SARAH4S ART is 8 and absent 63 days
* He only has 3 runs this season as well
* I think he’s underraced this year with limited backclass
* EMMA4S GIFT is unsafe as a filly from  a Listed race
* Down from 8f no similar profiles won
* LADY FLORENCE didnt run well enough last time
* She will find this trip short of ideal as well
* TADALAVIL looks underraced this year
* I doubt he is in the form to win this
* SILVER RIME is an exposed horse from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* Similar horses aged 6 or more were 4-34
* All 4 winners had at least 6 runs that season
* SILVER RIME only has 4 runs this year
* All 4 winners had no more than 9st 2lbs
* SILVER RIME has 8lbs more weight than any
* SILVER RIME looks unsafe to me statistically
* SILVER RIME has 30 runs but just 1 run at this trip
* He was hammered in that race so he is unproven at 6f
* TISLAAM is an exposed 4yo from 6f
* There are winners doing that but 2 problems
* None carried 8st 8lbs or less and he has 8st 3lbs
* All similar 4yo winners had Class 3 form at least
* TISLAAM has only raced in Class 4 and below
* I do like the recent run and the handicap mark
* Question marks as to whether he’s classy enough
* BERBICE is an exposed 6yo from a 5f race
* I found found a winner like him
* Therefore he is not a negative
* He is on a losing run of 29 though
* Not proven in a big field there are doubts
* I didnt think he offered enough

P o s s i b l e s

* WITCHRY won this race last season
* I thought he was underraced last year but he won
* The race cut up because of rain and only 9 ran last year
* I can’t rule him out after last years win
* Not having had far more runs this season
* WITCHRY doesnt feel safe statistically
* He won last time but he lacks a run in 2 weeks
* No horse won again doing that when older than 6
* WITCHRY is 9 now and thats a concern
* Statistically he is weak and unlike winners
* I said that last year though and he won

* SUNSHINE ALWAYS has a reasonably good profile
* I found a couple of similar 5yo winners like him
* He was 3rd in this race last year finishing fast
* That was his first ever run at this distance
* He would have won in a few more strides
* The issue is has he got the pace to win this 6f race
* Especially in a big field

* CLEAR ICE is an exposed 4yo
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* He has just won 0-74 and 0-79 handicaps
* This is a 0-85 and a little bit tougher
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* I Dont see his chance as better than many
* He has 42 runs and none were on a Grade 1 track
* He was also bought to try and win this race though

* DEN4S GIFT is an exposed 7yo from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* He has a similar profile to Silver Rime
* DEN4S GIFT is just a year older
* He does have more runs this season though
* Thats his crucial advantage over that horse
* DEN4S GIFT is similar to 1 past winner
* DEN4S GIFT has a 0-20 record on turf
* Not worried about that as he has placed many times
* All his wins come at 7f and 8f though
* I wouldnt rule him out but there are doubts
* He will need to be on the right side drawn 20

S e l e c t i o n

KINIGI 25/1
RYLEE MOOCH 16/1

* KINIGI is an exposed mare from 5f
* She has never been out of a Class 4 race before
* Similar horses had a 1-14 record
* That winner was Clearing Sky in this race in 2006
* Clearing Sky had a long absence that day
* KINIGI doesnt but I’d make her a Possible
* I doubt she will win but 33/1 is a fair risk

RYLEE MOOCH 14/1

We have yet to have a 3yo winner of this race but
very few were fancied anyway and there seems no
reason at all why they can’t win. There are 265 of
these 6f Handicaps at this time of year and these
races show horses like RYLEE MOOCH are fine.

* Male horses aged 3
* Coming from 5f races
* Between 13 and 20 career starts
* No form beyond a Class 3 race before
* At least 7 runs that season
* Beaten last time but not by more than 10 lengths
* Not carrying more than 9st 6lbs
* Having won a race before
* Starting shorter than 25/1
* RYLEE MOOCH has this profile
* I ran it and found a 5-8 record

Thats a very good record. Admittedly some were
a few years ago and only 1 of the 5 winners were
in a big field. I would have liked a past winner of
this race his age but as I Said few were fancied and
overall his profile is better than anything else here.

S e l e c t i o ns

RYLEE MOOCH 18/1  Tote betfred
KINIGI 25/1 at many including s james PaddyPower or 38/1 Betfair

Posted under horse racing tips

Goodwood 2.15

7/2 Parisian Pyramid, 5/1 Take Ten, 6/1 Lui Rei
15/2 Dungannon, 15/2 Fathsta, 8/1 Crown Choice
11/1 Lutine Bell, 12/1 Love Delta, 14/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
16/1 Everymanforhimself, 16/1 Slip Sliding Away
20/1 Rowe Park, 25/1 Corporal Maddox.

This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f. There are 40
similar races at this time of year. I want to take
on the 4 year old seasonal debutants today.

* May has seen 272 Class 2 Handicaps
* Thats 272 Class 2 Handicaps at Every Distance
* There were 36 seasonal debutant winners aged 4
* 35 of these had 12 or fewer career starts
* Those that had 13 or more career starts were 1-65
* That winner had Pattern Class form.
* The 4 year old debutants with 13 + runs struggled
* TAKE TEN fails that with 17 career starts
* Starting the year on a career high mark he isnt for me
* LOVE DELTA fails this statistic with 18 runs
* SLIP SLIDING AWAY also fails this statistic
* He has it all to do from his draw anyway
* ROWE PARK is wrong aged 8 from 5f
* LUTINE BELL – Badly drawn and poor last run
* CORPORAL MADDOX didnt do enough last time
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH comes out badly from an 8f race
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – doesnt offer enough
* FATHSTA is exposed and comes from a 7f race
* With 1-2-3 runs this year there were 2 similar winners
* Both had low weights though and he has 10st
* On a Career high mark it may be too much for him
* CROWN CHOICE – Respected but below par last time
* All similar horses that won did more last time out
* DUNGANNON is 4 and has 1 run this season
* Similar horses had  2-59 Record
* Both winners had more runs than he does
* None ran in the past fortnight (0-23) like him
* DUNGANNON is not far away but not quite right
* PARISIAN PYRAMID won this race last year
* He is exposed and drops from 7f with 2 runs this year
* I found 1 winner like him who ran much better last time
* PARISIAN PYRAMID may not have done enough

S e l e c t i o n

* LUI REI comes from 5f but happy with that
* His recent run makes all the difference
* He has been shaping up very well recently
* Impressive last time on tape he looks ready to win

Posted under horse racing tips