NEWBURY 2.50

EBF/THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS’ ASSOCIATION
MARES’ NOVICES’ CHASE FINAL (A HANDICAP)
(LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  2m6f110y

7/2 Jaunty Flight, 5/1 Lamanver Homerun, 13/2 Rate Of Knots, 15/2 Shatabdi, 10/1 Katess, 12/1 Aimigayle, 16/1 Pyleigh Lady, 33/1 Ceoperk, 50/1 Ruby Dante.

This is a Mares Chase around 22f. Its a Novice handicap and  messy statistically as it was formerly run at Uttoxeter and it hasn’t always been open to Novices so its very unsafe. It does have a long history though and what they show is this. They imply that a horse with a high weight may struggle as horses with 11st 3lbs or more had a poor 1-36 record in the last 14 renewals. That is a worry for LAMANVER HOMERUN

Horses aged under 7 in this race had a 0-29 record and Thats a statistic that could fall and it may well be the one trend that will determine If I get this race right.

We have AIMIGAYLE - KATESS  -  RATE OF KNOTS aged
six in this race. I was tempted by AIMIGAYLE but I decided to oppose these three horses aged 6. What swings it for me is that none of them are foaled before March 21st in the year they were officially born which technically means they are all not yet 6 year olds until a month or so so whilst I may have risked a horse aged 6 that was almost 7 these three are really just 5 year olds about to become 6 despite them being offically six year olds. RATE OF KNOTS is the least experienced and almost all past winners had more experience than she does.

I’d suggest RUBY DANTE and CEOPERK are too old as no past
winners were aged 9 or more. I’d be more interested in SHATABDI had she had a more recent run and ran better in that race.

Overall perhaps the best profile belonged to JAUNTY FLIGHT
and she won the mares hurdle final last year at this meeting. She has a superb profile and on soft ground she would be a confident bet. However this is not soft. Its good bordering on fast. They say JAUNTY FLIGHT wants soft ground and his form suggests that. He is from a sire (Busy Flight) that has 23 national hunt winners. All 23 came on ground that was soft. Those that ran on good or faster ground were 0-90 so you have to worry that JAUNTY FLIGHT may find the ground too fast. I would still save on him as his profile is brilliant. PYLEIGH LADY has a serious chance as well and I like her profile and 25/1 is far too
big a price. Because of the ground PYLEIGH LADY is my bet

SELECTION - PYLEIGH LADY E/W  14/1 at many places including betfred , Ladbrokes, bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

WOLVERHAMPTON  3.30

William Hill LINCOLN TRIAL (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-105) 1m141y

4/1 Flipando, 11/2 Flowing Cape, 8/1 Capricorn Run,
9/1 Ace Of Hearts, 10/1 Mahadee, 10/1 Whitcombe Minister,
12/1 Bolodenka, 12/1 Extraterrestrial, 14/1 Flawed Genius,
14/1 Nightjar, 16/1 Lucky Dance, 16/1 Samarinda, 33/1 Raptor.

* This is a 0-105 Handicap
* This race has been ran 12 times before
* Most winners were lightly raced aged 4 and 5
* Horses aged 4 and 5 won 11 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 2 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses that were aged 6 or more were 0-47
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR - CAPRICORN RUN -ACE OF HEARTS
* SAMARINDA - BOLODENKA -FLIPANDO - LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses that didnt run within 2 weeks were 0-53
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR - ACE OF HEARTS - EXTRATERRESTRIAL
* SAMARINDA - BOLODENKA -LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-39
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR - MAHADEE - SAMARINDA - LUCKY DANCE
* This race usually goes to either a seasonal debutant
* Or a horse with 2 or more runs since January 1st
* Every past winner came from a handicap (Others 0-38)
* SAMARINDA
* None of the winners came from 6f or shorter
* NIGHTJAR - FLOWING CAPE fail that
* There has been 322 Class 2 handicaps at 8f
* Thats 322 races anywhere and any time of year
* In 322 races horse from 6f races won just 2
* They had a 2-106 record and both winners had long breaks
* Those that ran within 10 weeks were 0-80
* Based on these trends I would shortlist the following

MAHADEE
WHITCOMBE MINISTER
FLAWED GENIUS

* MAHADEE fails one trend above
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 were 0-39 in this race
* Ignore that statistic for this horse
* He is only just exposed with 21 career starts
* His Saddle slipped last time and he was heavily eased
* MAHADEE comes from a 7f race at Lingfield
* The 2007 and 2008 winners of this came from that race
* MAHADEE has every chance of making that 3 in a row
* WHITCOMBE MINISTER is interesting
* He’s a similar profile to 2002 winner Dayglow Dancer
* The one worry is he comes from 12f
* That was last year though and he is unexposed
* FLAWED GENIUS is another with a fine chance

SELECTION

Given the seasonal debutants are 4 year olds I have
to go with MAHADEE each way coming from the best trial
race but the best saver may be Whitcombe Minister

Mahadee is currently 9/1 Ladbrokes, sjames and William Hill

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

KEMPTON 12.30

TAKE A BREAK/EUROPEAN BREEDERS’ FUND
“NATIONAL HUNT” NOVICES’ HURDLE (QUALIFIER)
(CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Lord Ragnar, 9/2 Somersby, 13/2 Gershwin, 7/1 In Vino,
8/1 Seefin Mountain, 12/1 Clova Island, Firedog, 14/1 Master Charm, 16/1 Ruby Isabel, 20/1 High Carol, Rapid Return, 25/1 Mr Presley, 33/1 Rothres, Smart N Sharp, Ushiro Emery, 50/1 Junior Jimble, 100/1 Cool Contender.

SELECTION - SOMERSBY 3/1

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle for horses aged 4-5-6
* There has been 112 of these races run in November-December
* There has been 497 similar races for all aged horses
* I want to oppose LORD RAGMAR and FIREDOG in this race
* Both come from a Bumper - and it was this season
* 13 of the 497 winners came from a recent bumper
* However LORD RAGMAR was beaten 20 lengths in that bumper
* FIREDOG was beaten 40 lengths in that bumper
* I looked at horses that had ran recently in bumpers
* Horses that did it beaten 8 lengths or more were 0-220
* Those that were not 1-2-3-4-5 last time out were 0-170
* Horses well beaten in bumpers are awful if having run recently
* FIREDOG-LORD RAGMAR fails the same statistic
* They both look very opposable
* IN VINO was entitled to hate his seasonal debut
* That was on heavy ground and he had no hurdling form
* The issue with him is did he run well enough last time to consider
* He had excuses - but was still beaten 27 lengths
* Not many of the 497 winners had similar profiles
* In 497 races I looked at 4 year olds that had 1 run that year
* Looked at those beaten 16 + lengths in these races as IN VINO was
* The record was 10-531 a very poor 1.88% strike rate
* When these 4 year olds had more than 1 run it became 2-184
* Those like IN VINO with 2-3 career starts were 0-121
* That suggests to me IN VINO has too much to do
* MASTER CHARM fails the same angles and is also opposed
* I dont think GERSHWIN did enough last time out
* I would shortlist SEEFIN MOUNTAIN
* He comes from a Graded Bumper after 2 runs
* There were 4 horses with his profile and they were W 4th 4th Lost
* It has been done and Graded Bumper form is respected
* I would have to strongly prefer SOMERSBY

SELECTION - SOMERSBY 3/1

* SOMERSBY comes from a maiden hurdle this year
* Several 4 year olds did that in similar races
* Those like SOMERSBY that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were strong
* His run this year must give him a very strong chance
* He is reported as one of Henrietta Knights best prospects
* When he ran the stable were out of form and struggling
* They have now had their 1st winner this year
* He was bound to have badly needed that opening run 3 weeks ago

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 COUNTRYSIDE DAY MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+) 2m110y

13/8 Carole´s Legacy, 5/2 Shoreacres, 5/1 Quidonc, Somersby, 13/2 Puerto Azul, 8/1 Uffa Fox, 33/1 Northern Lad, 100/1 CoolContender, Graham´s Girl, Lady Samantha, Sideon Arthur, Son Of Karinga.

SELECTION - SHOREACRES
 

This is a 2 mile maiden hurdle. Pretty Standard for this time of year and we have 6 possible winners and 6 no hopers so it looks quite sortable. I wanted to oppose CAROLE’S LEGACY in this.

She is a 4 year old filly. She is having her seasonal debut. She has ran just twice before and she comes from Bumpers and thats not an ideal mix as the following trends suggest

* Since 1992 there has been over 8000 Maiden And Novice Hurdles
* Thats any time of year - any distance - any course
* I looked for 4 year old fillies that came from Bumper races
* The record was just 7 winners from 396 runners
* When they had under 3 runs like CAROLE’S LEGACY
* That record became just 2-244 a strike rate of 0.82%
* Seasonal debutants that tried it like her were 0-81
* The record in Maiden hurdles like this were 0-48

I concede that CAROLE’S LEGACY - Unbeaten- Powerfully trained -with Listed Bumper form has to have a better chance than these trends suggest she has - but the bottom line for me is this. In the last 16 years you can not find a 4 year old filly that won any maiden or novice hurdle
with her profile and thats any distance any class and any time of year. Because of that and because she is short enough around 7/4 I am going to take her on with something that has a far better profile.

There has been 126 Maiden Hurdles between September and December over 2 mile trips. Only 1 of these races went to a 4 year old thats had 1 career start in a Bumper as SOMERSBY. The record was 1-26 and although he cant be a negative on that statistic not many win with the
profile he has and just 1 at this time of year and he wouldnt be my pick in the race. Neither would be PUERTO AZUL another 4 year old that has 3 runs in Bumpers and has yet to win one. QUIDONIC is really impossible to rate as a 4 year old with French Form. Strong stable and you couldnt rule him out but he doesnt smell strongly fancied and you
would have thought he would have been shorter in the betting if he came here with maximum confidence. I feel the same about UFFA FOX as well as whilst he has won a Graded Bumper he has flopped since and remains with a small yard and doesnt smell too fancied either. There is only one choice for me and that is S H O R E A C R E S

* SHOREACRES comes from the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham
* September to December has seen 2813 Novice and Maiden Hurdles
* Thats at any trip and any course in these 4 months
* I looked at horses that came from Grade 1 Bumpers
* When they had 2 or more runs and aged 5 or more they were 36-85
* Thats a 42% strike rate and 58 of the 85 winners won or placed
* The record in Maiden Hurdles was 4 wins from 7 runners

You cant say he is Bomb Proof but a horse coming from the Champion Bumper like SHOREACRES has a very strong profile and considering we know that no horse has won a remotely similar race anywhere with the profile of the favourite in the race I have to go with SHOREACRES.

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips