Cheltenham Festival

Novice Handicap Chase Stat

Today I want to give you a statistic to bear in mind

for next week’s Handicap Chases. That’s any and

every Handicap Chase except the Novice Handicap.

I have examined all Handicap Chases run in the

last 15 years and more. Because it involves every

handicap it’s a solid trend.

 

* All Handicap Chases at the Cheltenham Festival

* I looked at horses from a Novice Handicap Chase

* All 19 that tried to do this Lost with these results

* 4 6 8 F PU 10 PU 12 7 9 13 F 13 7 PU PU 12 14 8

* None of the 19 horses Placed 1-2-3 in these races

Many people think you want a lightly raced chaser

thats improving from Novice Company and there is

no problem at all with that sort of horse. However

whilst many festival handicap chases are won by

horses that come from Novice Chases there hasn’t

yet been one that has been won by a horse that is

coming from a Novice Handicap. Admittedly only

19 of these tried but they all finished 4th or worse.

 

 

Cheltenham Deal Now Live

I have had many emails this week asking if and when our Cheltenham
deal would go live.

Today is the day

See www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Key Points:

• You get a heavily discounted first month of full membership
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• Arguably the most in depth Cheltenham Analysis around.
• Your month will also include the major Grand National
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Should I join Now or just before Cheltenham?

I would say right now. You get immediate access to full service
membership.

There will be a fair bit of action this weekend to look forward
to with the likes of the Imperial Cup and Sandown to get stuck
into.

A few days of feet finding as a member will do you no harm
before Cheltenham starts on Tuesday.

Here is that secret cheap deal link again

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS I will back tomorrow with further free Cheltenham nuggets
of info.

Not quite sure what with yet but it might be a look at an
individual Cheltenham race from a stats and trends point of
view.

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

2013 Cheltenham Festival Countdown

We are ready for the Cheltenham Festival. The ground

work has all been done and the highlight of the season

will soon be upon us.

 

This is the start of a series of free warm up messages for

Cheltenham. I hope you enjoy them and will find some

value in them as we get closer to Cheltenham.

 

Many sources will be churning out the same old hackneyed

stats and trends.

We plan to provide you with less run of the mill stuff

that could provide you with extra edge against the crowds.

 

We had an excellent Cheltenham Last year.

Many members who joined last March stayed and

are still with us. They now realise there is not any

other service out there that offers anything like as

comprehensive and as ground breaking as we do.

 

WARNING – DO NOT JOIN US TODAY

It is becoming tradition here to offer a cut price deal

for Cheltenham month.

My webman will get a cheap join page sorted

for you over the next few days.

So wait for the cheaper deal is my best advice.

I will tell you when ready via this newsletter.

 

Anyhow on to today’s stat nugget.

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

This is a good statistic that you won’t read about

anywhere else that I hope will provide quite a few

negatives at the meeting. Everyone seems to be

in two camps with Statistics during Cheltenham.

You have the Die Hard statistical punters refusing

to consider and bet horses that are not consistent

with the particular statistic they have heard about

or bought in publications. They treat statistics at

the meeting religiously and wont budge from them.

We also have the sceptics in another camp who

refuse to acknowledge the validity of betting from

a statistical perspective. They are so often quick

to remind everyone when a statistic doesn’t work

out which is always going to happen quite often.

I don’t see myself in either camp. I see the huge

benefits statistics do bring but also the dangers.

You need a level of statistical maturity to benefit

from this approach to betting. One of the reasons

some people use statistics at Cheltenham might

be that the field sizes are so big it is impossible

to cope with all the runners and this way allows

people to reduce the workload. It’s slightly lazy.

I don’t follow individual statistics. I like to see a

combination of statistics. For example I do not

mind if my horse has a high weight but only if

they are the right type of horse that does that.

This is a statistic that I think is quite relevant.

 

* Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

* Since 1997 there have been 60 of these

* That’s over any and every distance

* This does not include the Novice Handicap Chase

* This does not include the Cross Country Race

* 15 Winners carried 11st or more to win

* Look at the record of 7 year olds with 11st or more

* Horses aged 7 or more with 11st or more are 0-71

* I don’t mind high weighted horses in handicap Chases

* I don’t mind 7 year olds in handicap Chases

* I do think twice before I bet 7yo’s with high weights

* This 0-71 record seems quite a strong one to me

* 24 of the 71 Losers were 10/1 or shorter

* Were not talking about a load of no hopers here

Watch the 7 year olds this week in the Handicap Chases.

There should be quite a few. It will be interesting to see
if the well fancied and well touted SUPER DUTY can break

this statistic. He is a 7 year old and has 11st 9lbs on the

Thursday in the Kim Muir Handicap and is 6/1 favourite.

I’m not saying he wont win. I am just illustrating an angle

that is Not in the public domain that needs to be thought

about and considered. Some say ignorance is bliss and

that may be true but this game’s an intellectual challenge

and I would rather know about these things that not know

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Lingfield 1.55

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1

Statistically this is a horrible little race and one
that will be affected by the draw as the 3 market
leaders have the worst draws 10-11-12 so much
will be down to tactics and a bit of luck. I think
that TEMPLE ROAD is the one because having
watched his recent runs its clear he still has a
ton in hand and I don’t believe he is finished yet.

Racing Post Odds

4/1 Temple Road, 5/1 Black Cadillac, 13/2 Welease Bwian
7/1 Speak The Truth, 8/1 Rich Again, 9/1 Jack My Boy
9/1 Waabel, 10/1 Belle Bayardo, 10/1 Frognal
14/1 My Own Way Home, 16/1 Desert Strike, 25/1 Putin.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* I have been banging on about the 6f draw here
* There have been 65 handicaps here since 2012
* Horses drawn 11 or more are 1-72 in these 64 races
* That was 0-71 but yesterday a Stall 11 won
* It was a falsely run race and that wouldnt put me off
* I would still much rather avoid the higher stalls
* BLACK CADILLAC has the worst draw in Stall 12
* He won last week and has a sound chance otherwise
* I just cant be with a horse from that stall at the moment
* RICH AGAIN is Drawn 11 also failing that statistic
* The rest of the race is a statistical mess
* No runners have absences almost all run within 2 weeks
* No runners come up in distance either
* There is a shortage of fillies in the race
* Luck will be an important factor here

TEMPLE ROAD won last time and has recent form
figures of W W 3 W. The defeat two runs ago was a
strange one. He looked to win easily and went 1.01
in running but somehow ended up on the far rail and
got caught. He did win last time and watching it on
video he had a ton in hand and wasnt even extended.
This horse still looks very well treated. With a good
passage he could outclass these. The problem is
that whilst the draw stats say avoid horses drawn 11
or more TEMPLE ROAD is drawn 10 and thats a bit
higher than I’d like. Visual impressions of him tells
me to ignore that. This looks a horse that should win.

Selection

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1 william hill    bet365   tote

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Newbury  4.10

5/6 Unioniste, 7/2 Hadrian4s Approach
4/1 Our Father, 6/1 Same Difference
150/1 Henry Hurst.

* This is a 3m Novice Chase
* I see this as an interesting little race
* UNIONISTE upset me last time back in December
* He was a 4yo running in a Cheltenham handicap chase
* I oppose him that day for this reason
* No 4yo had ever won a Cheltenham Handicap Chase before
* I was upset when UNIONISTE broke that statistic
* He made a Mug of me so I dont underestimate him
* He will also improve at this distance today
* However he is now 5 and this is Febuary
* I looked at every 3m Novice Chase in Febuary
* Horses aged 5 had a weak 1-26 record
* The only winner was a horse called Japhet
* He started 2/9 favourite long odds on
* He only won a 3 runner race and he had Grade 1 form
* All the other 5 year olds trying this were beaten
* UNIONISTE – He cant appeal at odds on
* HENRY HURST is outclassed
* SAME DIFFERENCE has quite a lot to prove
* OUR FATHER – I suppose he has to be respected
* Funny horse who probably needs to be fresh
* I think he flopped last time as the race came too soon
* Hard to read we cant know if he will hold his form
* There seems a safer option to me

* This horse has a good profile
* Horses aged 6
* Coming from a Grade1-2 Chase
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W W W W W 3 F W
* Thats a 6-8 record
* The last to try won in 2010 (Burton Port)
* HADRIAN4S APPROACH is the selection

Selection

HADRIAN’S APPROACH 3/1
Quite a lot of 3/1 or more about earlier when full members got this
but now only sportingbet at those odds. You are looking at 11/4 perhaps as sportingbet who are not exactly renowed as a high stakes layer will cave in quickly no doubt.

Best Live Odds  available here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-02-09/newbury/16-10/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

Only Musselburgh on the Flat today and that track wouldn’t
make my list of favourite tracks. Kempton is on the sand a
tough competetive card but we are short of flat cards today.
I have dipped into a National Hunt race but the advice below
I would not steam into with big cash.

Next week will be a huge week. There is a Bank Holiday.
Some very big trend races. There is a Grand National.
I will be stronger at Aintree this year than ever before
witha  huge ammount of pre research already done.

T o d a y ‘s  O p t i o n s

I could have had some shorter priced bets but I didnt want
that. Equally some of my bigger priced options overreach
a little and I am resigned to having a very quiet Saturday
knowing full well we will fire up dramatically next week.
Being a Saturday I will highlight one bet. I’ve a negative
in the 4.05pm and the two obvious alternatives are short
of what I want. There are two very big prices in the race.

Haydock 4.05

VINTAGE STAR 16/1 Each Way

DIZZY RIVER  16/1 Each Way

You can get 18/1 and 20/1 in the offices and both will
be bigger on Betfair. I you bet both each way we have
only got to get one placed to break level and I feel we
could do better than that. Novice Handicaps are quite
complicated but my angles offer encouragement and I
think on a dangerous Saturday we should keep it tight
and wait for Grand National week where tracks suit me.

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c   T o d a y

H a y d o c k   4.05

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails my angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles over 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails some angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses coming from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* Horses coming up in trip from 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

I think the race is set up for an each way alternative.
I do not want CHADFORD from a 4yo race. KINGS LODGE
and EYRE APPARENT didnt run well enough last time.

* SYDNEY PAGET – 5yo from a novice hurdle
* He has an absence of over 7 weeks
* I found a 2-54 record from these types
* None like SYDNEY PAGET won last time out
* None carried more than 10st 9lbs and he has 11st 10lbs
* SYDNEY PAGET feels unsafe to me
* PINEROLO – Overall positive but not brilliant
* VINTAGE STAR – Hard to read but overall positive
* DIZZY RIVER – Shortlistable and not a bad price
* PERSIAN SNOW – I’d prefer more runs this season
* I found a 7yo winner like him but not 6yo
* GRANDADS HORSE – Comes out as a potential e/w bet
* GRANDADS HORSE – Weight could be his biggest flaw
* All the similar winners had marginally lighter weights

Selection

Split Stake Bet

* VINTAGE STAR 20/1 Each Way S James
* DIZZY RIVER  20/1 Each Way  S James

* Only 1 needs to place to return stakes
* Every £10 bet means £2.50 each way on both horses

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips