Goodwood 2.15

7/2 Parisian Pyramid, 5/1 Take Ten, 6/1 Lui Rei
15/2 Dungannon, 15/2 Fathsta, 8/1 Crown Choice
11/1 Lutine Bell, 12/1 Love Delta, 14/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
16/1 Everymanforhimself, 16/1 Slip Sliding Away
20/1 Rowe Park, 25/1 Corporal Maddox.

This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f. There are 40
similar races at this time of year. I want to take
on the 4 year old seasonal debutants today.

* May has seen 272 Class 2 Handicaps
* Thats 272 Class 2 Handicaps at Every Distance
* There were 36 seasonal debutant winners aged 4
* 35 of these had 12 or fewer career starts
* Those that had 13 or more career starts were 1-65
* That winner had Pattern Class form.
* The 4 year old debutants with 13 + runs struggled
* TAKE TEN fails that with 17 career starts
* Starting the year on a career high mark he isnt for me
* LOVE DELTA fails this statistic with 18 runs
* SLIP SLIDING AWAY also fails this statistic
* He has it all to do from his draw anyway
* ROWE PARK is wrong aged 8 from 5f
* LUTINE BELL – Badly drawn and poor last run
* CORPORAL MADDOX didnt do enough last time
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH comes out badly from an 8f race
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – doesnt offer enough
* FATHSTA is exposed and comes from a 7f race
* With 1-2-3 runs this year there were 2 similar winners
* Both had low weights though and he has 10st
* On a Career high mark it may be too much for him
* CROWN CHOICE – Respected but below par last time
* All similar horses that won did more last time out
* DUNGANNON is 4 and has 1 run this season
* Similar horses had  2-59 Record
* Both winners had more runs than he does
* None ran in the past fortnight (0-23) like him
* DUNGANNON is not far away but not quite right
* PARISIAN PYRAMID won this race last year
* He is exposed and drops from 7f with 2 runs this year
* I found 1 winner like him who ran much better last time
* PARISIAN PYRAMID may not have done enough

S e l e c t i o n

* LUI REI comes from 5f but happy with that
* His recent run makes all the difference
* He has been shaping up very well recently
* Impressive last time on tape he looks ready to win

Posted under horse racing tips

Good main bet winner last week on the blog with Russian George drifting out a touch to 11/4 and winning.

Today we are back to normal style with just a small snippet from the main message.

Not our main bet of the day as paying clients do not like it when we post them up here …. so we do it very rarely.

Join Up Properly I suggest.

On to today and a bit of interest at Goodwood.

GOODWOOD 2.25

Bluebay Handicap
(Previously Known As The Shell House Stakes)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

9/2 Bullwhip, 9/2 Desert Creek, 8/1 Hajoum, 9/1 Fathsta
9/1 Light From Mars, 10/1 Marajaa 12/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
12/1 Woodcote Place, 14/1 Coasting 14/1 Gallagher
20/1 Carnaby Street, 25/1 Elna Bright 33/1 Aspectus.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7f
* Goodwood have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 38 similar races in September

Horses aged 7 and more have struggled in these races and have a weak 1-50 record. WOODCOTE PLACE is 7 and has both a career high mark and an absence. MARAJAA is 8 and also has a career high mark and no recent race. ASPECTUS has to go as well as a 7yo with a poor last run. Exposed horses from a 6f race struggled. Those without a run in 2 weeks won nothing so FATHSTA looks opposable. Horses from 3yo handicaps have a 0-14 record in this race. Those from 3yo handicaps over 7f have a 0-29 record in the 38 similar races. BULLWHIP fails that as does CARNABY STREET. Initially it wasnt a statistic that I believed in but in 38 races there were 11 winners aged 3 and the ones that had form in Listed or Group races before had a 0-71 record. CARNABY STREET and BULLWHIP have got Group class form and that undermines their chance. I thought ELNA BRIGHT had been absent too long for an exposed horse.
COASTING comes out badly with his absence. Horses with big
weights have struggled in this race. SPIRIT OF SHARJAH looks hard to fancy with his weight and a career high mark as well as coming from the worst draw. If you take exposed horses from an 8f race you find a 3-47 record. LIGHT FROM MARS shares that profile. However none of the 3-47 winners were aged 5 so I cant match him and they all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt. None of them had more than 9st either so with 9st 9lbs and the other angles he fails I see LIGHT FROM MARS running ok but not winning. There are 3 horses I felt I could shortlist in this.

SHORTLIST

HAJOUM – 1 similar winner who was less exposed. Ground doubt.

GALLAGHER – Complicated to read but shortlistable

DESERT CREEK – 1 similar winner but not an exact match

No outstanding profiles in this race. I notice DESERT CREEK and GALLAGHER come from the best trial race at Goodwood. That race provided the winner in 1993 1994 2000 2005 2006. I think GALLAGHER has a far better chance than it looks. He is coming down the weights. When he reaches the point where his ability excedes his rating he will win. Not certain to be today but at 20/1 and more I think he is overpriced. HAJOUM has a decent chance and I suspect his chance is about handling softer ground and how much it has or has not dried out. My problem is just how to stake the race with 3 shortlisted so I go this way

Win Bet – GALLAGHER 16/1
Win Bet – HAJOUM 10/1

Saver Bet to break level on DESERT CREEK

Current best odds available at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/

Posted under horse racing tips

I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including betfred, bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWBURY 2.50

EBF/THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS’ ASSOCIATION
MARES’ NOVICES’ CHASE FINAL (A HANDICAP)
(LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  2m6f110y

7/2 Jaunty Flight, 5/1 Lamanver Homerun, 13/2 Rate Of Knots, 15/2 Shatabdi, 10/1 Katess, 12/1 Aimigayle, 16/1 Pyleigh Lady, 33/1 Ceoperk, 50/1 Ruby Dante.

This is a Mares Chase around 22f. Its a Novice handicap and  messy statistically as it was formerly run at Uttoxeter and it hasn’t always been open to Novices so its very unsafe. It does have a long history though and what they show is this. They imply that a horse with a high weight may struggle as horses with 11st 3lbs or more had a poor 1-36 record in the last 14 renewals. That is a worry for LAMANVER HOMERUN

Horses aged under 7 in this race had a 0-29 record and Thats a statistic that could fall and it may well be the one trend that will determine If I get this race right.

We have AIMIGAYLE – KATESS  -  RATE OF KNOTS aged
six in this race. I was tempted by AIMIGAYLE but I decided to oppose these three horses aged 6. What swings it for me is that none of them are foaled before March 21st in the year they were officially born which technically means they are all not yet 6 year olds until a month or so so whilst I may have risked a horse aged 6 that was almost 7 these three are really just 5 year olds about to become 6 despite them being offically six year olds. RATE OF KNOTS is the least experienced and almost all past winners had more experience than she does.

I’d suggest RUBY DANTE and CEOPERK are too old as no past
winners were aged 9 or more. I’d be more interested in SHATABDI had she had a more recent run and ran better in that race.

Overall perhaps the best profile belonged to JAUNTY FLIGHT
and she won the mares hurdle final last year at this meeting. She has a superb profile and on soft ground she would be a confident bet. However this is not soft. Its good bordering on fast. They say JAUNTY FLIGHT wants soft ground and his form suggests that. He is from a sire (Busy Flight) that has 23 national hunt winners. All 23 came on ground that was soft. Those that ran on good or faster ground were 0-90 so you have to worry that JAUNTY FLIGHT may find the ground too fast. I would still save on him as his profile is brilliant. PYLEIGH LADY has a serious chance as well and I like her profile and 25/1 is far too
big a price. Because of the ground PYLEIGH LADY is my bet

SELECTION – PYLEIGH LADY E/W  14/1 at many places including betfred , Ladbrokes, bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

WOLVERHAMPTON  3.30

William Hill LINCOLN TRIAL (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-105) 1m141y

4/1 Flipando, 11/2 Flowing Cape, 8/1 Capricorn Run,
9/1 Ace Of Hearts, 10/1 Mahadee, 10/1 Whitcombe Minister,
12/1 Bolodenka, 12/1 Extraterrestrial, 14/1 Flawed Genius,
14/1 Nightjar, 16/1 Lucky Dance, 16/1 Samarinda, 33/1 Raptor.

* This is a 0-105 Handicap
* This race has been ran 12 times before
* Most winners were lightly raced aged 4 and 5
* Horses aged 4 and 5 won 11 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 2 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses that were aged 6 or more were 0-47
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – CAPRICORN RUN -ACE OF HEARTS
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -FLIPANDO – LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses that didnt run within 2 weeks were 0-53
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – ACE OF HEARTS – EXTRATERRESTRIAL
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-39
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – MAHADEE – SAMARINDA – LUCKY DANCE
* This race usually goes to either a seasonal debutant
* Or a horse with 2 or more runs since January 1st
* Every past winner came from a handicap (Others 0-38)
* SAMARINDA
* None of the winners came from 6f or shorter
* NIGHTJAR – FLOWING CAPE fail that
* There has been 322 Class 2 handicaps at 8f
* Thats 322 races anywhere and any time of year
* In 322 races horse from 6f races won just 2
* They had a 2-106 record and both winners had long breaks
* Those that ran within 10 weeks were 0-80
* Based on these trends I would shortlist the following

MAHADEE
WHITCOMBE MINISTER
FLAWED GENIUS

* MAHADEE fails one trend above
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 were 0-39 in this race
* Ignore that statistic for this horse
* He is only just exposed with 21 career starts
* His Saddle slipped last time and he was heavily eased
* MAHADEE comes from a 7f race at Lingfield
* The 2007 and 2008 winners of this came from that race
* MAHADEE has every chance of making that 3 in a row
* WHITCOMBE MINISTER is interesting
* He’s a similar profile to 2002 winner Dayglow Dancer
* The one worry is he comes from 12f
* That was last year though and he is unexposed
* FLAWED GENIUS is another with a fine chance

SELECTION

Given the seasonal debutants are 4 year olds I have
to go with MAHADEE each way coming from the best trial
race but the best saver may be Whitcombe Minister

Mahadee is currently 9/1 Ladbrokes, sjames and William Hill

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips