Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

2013 Cheltenham Festival Countdown

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Anyhow on to today’s stat nugget.

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

This is a good statistic that you won’t read about

anywhere else that I hope will provide quite a few

negatives at the meeting. Everyone seems to be

in two camps with Statistics during Cheltenham.

You have the Die Hard statistical punters refusing

to consider and bet horses that are not consistent

with the particular statistic they have heard about

or bought in publications. They treat statistics at

the meeting religiously and wont budge from them.

We also have the sceptics in another camp who

refuse to acknowledge the validity of betting from

a statistical perspective. They are so often quick

to remind everyone when a statistic doesn’t work

out which is always going to happen quite often.

I don’t see myself in either camp. I see the huge

benefits statistics do bring but also the dangers.

You need a level of statistical maturity to benefit

from this approach to betting. One of the reasons

some people use statistics at Cheltenham might

be that the field sizes are so big it is impossible

to cope with all the runners and this way allows

people to reduce the workload. It’s slightly lazy.

I don’t follow individual statistics. I like to see a

combination of statistics. For example I do not

mind if my horse has a high weight but only if

they are the right type of horse that does that.

This is a statistic that I think is quite relevant.

 

* Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

* Since 1997 there have been 60 of these

* That’s over any and every distance

* This does not include the Novice Handicap Chase

* This does not include the Cross Country Race

* 15 Winners carried 11st or more to win

* Look at the record of 7 year olds with 11st or more

* Horses aged 7 or more with 11st or more are 0-71

* I don’t mind high weighted horses in handicap Chases

* I don’t mind 7 year olds in handicap Chases

* I do think twice before I bet 7yo’s with high weights

* This 0-71 record seems quite a strong one to me

* 24 of the 71 Losers were 10/1 or shorter

* Were not talking about a load of no hopers here

Watch the 7 year olds this week in the Handicap Chases.

There should be quite a few. It will be interesting to see
if the well fancied and well touted SUPER DUTY can break

this statistic. He is a 7 year old and has 11st 9lbs on the

Thursday in the Kim Muir Handicap and is 6/1 favourite.

I’m not saying he wont win. I am just illustrating an angle

that is Not in the public domain that needs to be thought

about and considered. Some say ignorance is bliss and

that may be true but this game’s an intellectual challenge

and I would rather know about these things that not know

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

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Hardball

SOUTHWELL 12.55

Dine In The Pantry Restaurant Handicap
(Div II) (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-55) 7f

7/2 Louisiade, 6/1 Iron Max, 6/1 Sairaam
7/1 Positivity, 7/1 Royal Keva, 9/1 Ride A White Swan
9/1 Top Flight Splash, 11/1 Hard Ball, 11/1 Special Cuvee
14/1 Bertbrand, 16/1 Toballa.

This is Division 2 of the 7f handicap run at 2.20pm
so the statistics are the same and we have had 81 of
these races at this time of year. I was close to giving
up on this race as profile after profile dissapointed me
and I was almost resigned to hating every runner until
I found a horse in HARD BALL that I really liked.

Before HARD BALL’s claims I will mention a few of
the negatives. We know 3yo fillys from 6f races are
0-49 so TOP FLIGHT SPLASH didnt appeal. I could
not find winners like RIDE A WHITE SWAN as an
older horse from a maiden. IRON MAX looked too
inexperienced. No filly like POSITIVITY came from
a maiden. SAIRAAM came out badly as a 3yo filly
with no backclass and looked exposed. LOUISIADE
is 8 and steps down in trip and only 1 winner did it
and that was a different type and He’s unimpressive.
TOBALLA – BERTBRAND all looked weak. I can
see ROYAL KEVA running well but 3 year olds in
these races from 8f races hardly excelled and he is
a maiden after 15 runs. SPECIAL CURVEE could
go well but he has an absence to overcome. So with
a lack of credible profiles I stay with HARD BALL.

HARD BALL

* Horses aged 3 from 3yo handicaps
* 5-12 Career Starts
* Absence of over a Month
* Coming from 7f or more
* Starting under 25/1
* There were 4 horses that had that profile
* They finished W W W  W
* Three of the 4 were maidens just as he is

I have to risk HARD BALL. He may be useless
for all I know but this is a useless race dont forget.
Being beaten just 7 lengths in a 0-70 last time is
more than good enough to take this race. That
was over a mile and there is every chance this
7f distance suits him better.I dont know much
about him but he is entered all over the place
this week which must be a good sign and he is
a horse with a strong profile so why not at a double digit price

Hardball 12/1 Ladbrokes / Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on December 12, 2009

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Kempton Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Febuary 28th

No Account Bet

One Selection

Kempton 5.05

THE BISHOP’S BABY

Win Bet around 7/2- 4/1- 9/2

Currently 4/1 at William Hill , Ladbrokes , Centrebet , BlueSq

I have spent a lot of time on Bumper at
Kempton where THE BISHOP’S BABY has a massive
chance and I think she may win this. If she had been
trained by a bigger yard and also had a professioanal
on board I would have made her a full account bet as
an each way bet or with a saver in the race. I think
she will either bolt up or run into something above
average which is unlikely. The other problem is with
these races we have no control over prices so I will
make her a selection only. If she wins around 4/1 I
will have done my job well for a Saturday.

Have to go where the statistics take
me and THE BISHOP’S BABY is favoured as a bigger
price than most of these handicap options yet faces
nothing like as much opposition. Just the One bet on
Saturday but much to pick over elsewhere.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

I was hindered yesterday for the full member message
and lost a lot of time with some
connection problems and I didnt have a bet because of it.
If I had just gone with one it probably would have won as
I count 10 selections in yesterdays message and these 10
produced a W W W W W 3rd W W 2nd W record which was
pretty spectacular. Not going to let it get to me and will
carry on as planned. Shorter Messages. Finding some bets
that are stronger than we have had recently and get some
profit racked up as quickly as we can

KEMPTON 5.05

betfred BINGO MAIDEN OPEN
NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Aconitum, 5/1 Artist’s Moon, 5/1 The Bishops Baby,
11/2 Time To Think, 7/1 Divine Intavention, 7/1 Loana
Shell, 8/1 Mintiverdi, 12/1 Robo, 14/1 Genies Lamp, 33/1
Rapid Connection, 100/1 Patrick Dee.

* This is a Maiden Bumper over 2 miles
* Febuary and March have seen 48 of these races
* Rapid Connection- Patrick Dee look outclassed
* Fillies and Mares have a poor 5-172 record
* With 1 career run they are 0-73
* LOANA SHALL fails that
* No mare was absent as long as GENIIES LAMP
* Febuary and March have seen 490 Bumpers
* These are all maiden and non maiden races
* Unraced females are 13-702 a 1.85% strike rate
* Thye score badly but cant be entirely ruled out
* However I would want to oppose these runners
* MINTIVERDI – TIME TO THINK are opposed
* Both are unraced females and I dislike that
* ROBO is unraced at 16/1 and not for me
* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run in 490 similar races
* Those absent 7 weeks or more were 1-107
* ACONITUM fails that and also comes from a 3yo race
* Horses that did that were 1-33
* ARTIST´S MOON has to be respected from Hendersons
* However he is a once raced 4yo losing by 59 lengths last time
* 4 year olds with 1 run losing by 25 + lengths were 4-276
* Since 1997 that record was just 1-172
* Those that didnt run in 2 weeks were 1-215
* I dont see where the improvement comes from

SHORTLIST

DIVINE INTAVENTION – THE BISHOPS BABY

DIVINE INTAVENTION ran a strong 5th on his debut
and is statistically strong and I like his chance in this. THE BISHOPS BABY is also highly interesting as the only horse with 2 runs something that last years winner had. I think this pair have the strongest chance by far in this race. Video analysis leads me to the following. THE BISHOPS BABY has already clocked a higher  RPR than the average winners of these races.

SELECTION

SELECTION – THE BISHOPS BABY E/W

SAVER – DIVINE INTAVENTION

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Best Wishes

Guy

Mathematician-Betting

Posted under Main Content