Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

These are based on the past thirteen years of Cheltenham Gold Cup runnings.

We go to this level for almost all races we anlaysis whether its a major festival such as Cheltenham or a minor meeting in January. Working harder than others produces an edge.

 

Cheltenham Friday 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-85 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 18 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-90 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 36 that ran in the last 18 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 12 of the last 14 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974
* Two recent winners came from Handicaps
* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

S t r o n g e s t A n g l e s

* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Free Racing Tip at Haydock

Before todays free tip a bit of bookmaker news for Cheltenham worth noting.

Boyles have a very good Cheltenham day 1 offer where you can get stakes of up to £250 per race refunded if your horse comes second in the following Cheltenham day 1 races.

1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy
2.40 Festival Handicap Steeple Chase
3.20 Champion Hurdle

Also worth noting that they offer best price guarantees.

If you are new  to Boyles they will also give you the addition of a free £20 bet.

Full info on their site .

Click Here ==> BoyleSports

———————————————————

HAYDOCK 3.20

Totesport.com Grand National Trial
(Handicap Chase) Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4f

11/2 West End Rocker, 13/2 Carruthers, 7/1 Mobaasher
8/1 King Fontaine, 8/1 Silver By Nature, 9/1 Le Beau Bai
9/1 Nicto De Beauchene, 10/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Sarde
20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Etxalar, 25/1 Madison Du Berlais
33/1 Jaunty Journey, 40/1 Sound Accord.

* This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock’s has had 14 renewals of this race

This is a Grand National trial and I think we should split the runners
into two categories. First of all the in form horses in the race that ran
very well last time out and who are likely to be here to do their best.
Secondly the horses well beaten last time that might be using the race
to put the finishing touches on their Grand National chance.
Thats certainly looks like it has happened in the past as only In Form horses win this race.

* Last time out winners won 6 past renewals
* Last time out seconds won 4 past renewals
* Last time out 1st 2nd or 3rd won 12 of the 14 renewals
* Only 2 of the past winners were not placed last time
* One of these was 5th last time but had a long absence
* Another Fell at the 1st on their last run but won before it

I think you need to be against the horses that didnt run
very well last time. SILVER BY NATURE looks one to
oppose beaten too far last time and its interesting only 2
of the 14 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more. I would also
be against MADISON DU BERLAIS and CARRUTHERS
both high weights and not doing enough last time. Harder
to rule out CARRUTHERS. He isnt too unlike the winner
in 2008 (Miko De Beauchene) who had won the Chepstow
Welsh National and won this after a break aged 8 absent a
fair while. CARRUTHERS though has a longer break and
was well beaten last time and is only a small horse who is
best in a very small field and has never been placed in any
prior handicap. SOUND ACCORD – JAUNTY JOURNEY
and ETXALAR are all horses that failed to do enough last
time out. I dont see BALLYFITZ as straight enough to be
winning and you’d expect him to be laid out for Aintree if
he gets in that race. The only winners from a Novice race
ran within 2 weeks and MAJOR MALARKEY has got 66
days absence and No past winners came from any Novice
Handicap to win. I’ve looked at every Handicap Chase in
March and Febuary in Class 2 and Higher and thats all 329
races at any distance in those grades. If you look at 7 year
olds that have No Graded form before and also have 13 or
more career starts you do not find many winners and none
were like SARDE. None had as long an absence or won at
this distance and none managed to win having only 2 runs
that season and I dont see SARDE having enough to win
this. There is an interesting angle about backclass because
12 of the 14 winners of this race had past form in either
a Listed or Graded race before. KING FONTAINE doesn’t
have that. He seems to have plenty of weight for a horse
without it. The only winners of this race without Listed or
Graded form had much less weight than he does and having
been raised 15lbs for his last win he has quite a bit to prove
and his trainer has said the 15lbs rise was harsh.

SHORTLIST

WEST END ROCKER
MOBAASHER
NICTO DE BEAUCHENE
LE BEAU BAI

The issue with WEST END ROCKER s whether he has
recovered from a hard race at Warwick. Similar winners
of that race finished 4 6 11 in this race. Statistically he  is
respectable and earns a shortlist place comfortably.
I like MOBAASHER as he is a promising chaser who
has a progressive profile and looks well handicapped on his
hurdles form. Against him is he hasnt raced over fences this
season yet and I hope it doesnt catch him out.
It’s interesting NICTO DE BEAUCHENE’s full brother has
won this race before much as he was classier. He lacks a
run in Graded Class but both winners that lacked that did
look similar with a months break and a good last run and
I see NICTO DE BEAUCHENE as a serious runner. The
other option is mud loving LE BEAU BAI who finished
3rd in this race last year and should be thereabouts again.
The overnight rain swings me towards LE BEAU BAI.

SELECTION

LE BEAU BAI 9/1 in various spots
Ladbrokes , Sky , bet365, William Hill etc

Each Way

Posted under horse racing tips