Full members got a nice winner yesterday at about 20 /1 early odds.

On the free blog this Saturday I am posting up a much shorter odds selection.

Best profile today I feel is RUSSIAN GEORGE at Market Rasen
in the Novice Hurdle at 4.10pm but he is a shortish
price and does not get the juices flowing because of
that. If I wanted to play it very safe I would go with
him in a safe each way double but I think he will win

MARKET RASEN 4.10

B Eyre & Son Ltd Ford Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f

11/10 Russian George, 11/8 Sir Frank, 9/1 Society Venue
16/1 Not A Bob, 16/1 Royal Entourage, 25/1 Play To Win
28/1 Carrifran, 50/1 Loyal Knight, 66/1 Sound Of Silver.

This is a 17f Novice Hurdle. I think it is probably a two
horse race. I think SIR FRANK will take some stopping
but the better profile comes from RUSSIAN GEORGE a
4 year old that won last time out and very lightly raced.

* I looked at all Novice’s around this trip at this time of year
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a Novice Hurdle last time out over 2 miles
* Between 1 and 2 Career starts
* No form in higher than a Class 3 race before
* There were 15 horses that had that profile
* 10 of the 15 horses won and they finished in these places
* W W 2 W W 2 W 4 W W 2 W W 3 W
* RUSSIAN GEORGE is the selection

6/5 Paddy Power bet365 Betfair

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

I have a full Account Bet today in the 4pm race at Ripon
for full members.

Here in the free blog today I thought I would put up a few quick thoughts
on Sandown however.

S A N D O W N

Want to deal with Sandown first as its not a great card
from my point of view mixing hurdles and flat races with
many big fields and trial races. Only want to skip over it.

The opening Handicap at 1pm has 7 renewals. This race
is for Jump and Flat Jockeys and it’s the only race of its
kind at this time of year so angles are thin on the ground.
The worst age group so far has been 4 year olds and I’d
predict an older runner will win. I am happy to oppose a
4yo from a 3yo handicap like Directorship -Kiss A Prince
and Aurora Sky and one from a maiden like Night Lily. I’d
oppose4 year olds like Sapphire Prince and Mr Udagawa
and Best In Class who were all well beaten last time. I am
against any 4yo like Black N Brew with an absence. The
other 4yo Striding Edge is also opposed. Carlitos Spirit
was beaten too far recently. I’d avoid Halsion Chancer
coming from a 6f race. I would shortlist 2 here. Normally
TWILIGHT STAR would have been chucked out with a
profile like his but he won this last year so he gets some
dispensation. MILLFIELDS DREAMS would be my best
hope in the race.

I thought the Listed race Hurdle at 1.30 was priced up
about right. All past winners were aged 5-6-7 with them
all having at least 4 runs that season and previous form
in either Grade 1 or Grade 2 class. Only two horses have
that profile in ASHKAZAR and PETIT ROBIN. There is
no point doing the next race as it’s ridiculous.

The Celebration Chase at 2.30 throws up a big problem
in what to do with TWIST MAGIC the favourite. He is
easily the best horse in the race and won the race last
year as well but just 4 days ago he refused to race and
that is a problem. That was in Ireland as well so he has
travelled there and back in a few days as well. I would
not want FIX THE RIB from a hurdle. Statistically there
is a poor record with horses from handicaps when they
drop in trip so I´M SO LUCKY and CHANINBAR lack
the profile of all past winners. OISEAU DE NUIT may
be the best option at the prices. His chance like all the
others may depend on whether TWIST MAGIC starts
or runs his race. TWIST MAGIC is the most likely one
but at the prices I like  OISEAU DE NUIT each way.

SANDOWN 3.05

bet365 Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m5f110y

7/1 Fairoak Lad, 7/1 Just Amazing, 8/1 The Package,
10/1 Kilcrea Castle, 12/1 Lacdoudal, 12/1 Nostringsattached
14/1 Air Force One, 14/1 Hello Bud, 14/1 Hoo La Baloo
14/1 Tamarinbleu, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 20/1 Church Island
20/1 Monkerhostin, 25/1 Alderburn, 25/1 Irish Raptor
28/1 My Will, 33/1 Killyglen, 33/1 Martys Mission 33/1 Nozic, 33/1 Piraya.

The 3.05pm bet365 Gold Cup is a Grade 3 Handicap over
3m 5f. Tough sort of race. The horses that I think will not
be Fit enough are MONKERHOSTIN - AIR FORCE ONE
NOZIC - LOTHIAN FALCON - IRISH RAPTOR. There’s
a poor record  horses of horses aged 10 or more (1-71) so
ALDERBURN -LACDOUDAL -  CHURCH ISLAND look
weak as 11 year olds. HELLO BUD is 12 and ran far too
well in the Grand National and surely wont recover. Its
asking too much for an exposed horse to defy a lengthy
absence so HOO LA BALOO is out. MARTYS MISSION
is up too far in trip. I’m uncomfortable JUST AMAZING
comes from a Novice Chase and also lacks any form in a
Graded race something 15 of the last 17 winners had. For
the same reason NOSTRINGSATTACHED is opposed.
TAMARINBLEU comes out badly with his absence. Its
asking too much of PIRAYA. The only 7 year olds that
won this were in form and placed last time and he didnt
and thats why he is opposed and THE PACKAGE has
similar problems and I don’t fancy him. KILLYGLEN did
not run well enough last week. MY WILL doesnt make
any appeal. I would shortlist two. KILCREA CASTLE
and FAIROAK LAD both unexposed look strongest.

SELECTION - FAIROAK LAD
SAVER - KILCREA CASTLE

The bet 365 Mile at 3.40pm is a high class Group 2 race.
Its a messy race statistically as 5 runners have had their
latest runs Abroad and no horse comes from the strong
trial race (Earl of Sefton) this year. PRINCE OF DANCE
and THE CHEKA look too inexperienced. No horse has
come from handicaps like FAREER. The last 22 winners
were all younger than PRESSING. One of the interesting
angles in this race is that horses aged 5 or more that are
running first time out are 0-44 in this race. It was only 4
year olds that won this on their seasonal debuts. If you
look at all seasonal debutants none won with 13 or more
starts so BEACON LODGE and  PACO BOY the shortest
priced horse have that to overcome. For me the strongest
3 are BORDER PATROL - CONFRONT - CAT JUNIOR. I
would look to one of these. The best bet given the going
may well be CONFRONT each way.

SANDOWN 4.15

bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m2f7y

11/4 Crowded House, 7/2 Glass Harmonium, 4/1 Tranquil Tiger,
9/2 Laaheb, 13/2 Steele Tango, 12/1 Soul City, 16/1 Redwood.

The Gordon Richards Stakes (4.15pm) is unpleasant as
just 7 runners take place.  None of the past winners of
this race were as inexperienced as REDWOOD and not
one was as exposed as TRANQUIL TIGER. All the 4yo
seasonal debutant winners had Group class form in the
past and LAAHEB does not. Horses that had a recent
run and 13 or more career starts were 0-23 and that mix
is something STEELE TANGO has to overcome. I dont
like SOUL CITY much and doubt his stamina as well at
10f. Given a choice CROWDED HOUSE  has to make it
to the shortlist as does GLASS HARMONIUM. Tough
to split them but CROWDED HOUSE appeals more.

The 4.50 is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile. Statistically
its a race that’s been messed about with over the years.
MUJOOD is out from a 6f race. SWIFT CHAP had some
problems up in trip. I don’t fancy DUNN’O. I dislike him
as he has 1 run this year and comes up in distance. The
52 similar races show 3 winners managing that but none
were exposed like him none were aged 5 or more as he is
and although DUNN’O won this last year it was with less
weight he wasnt exposed or up in distance. I am not too
keen on GENERAL ELIOTT from novice hurdles. I tried
to find winners like TARTAN GIGHA down from 10f in
the last few weeks but I couldnt match a strong enough
profile and MOUNT HADLEY also has that problem. It
bothers me CHAPTER AND VERSE has been sold and
downgraded stables late last season. That only leaves
MABAIT and although I think he’s plenty short enough
I can understand why he is a warm favourite.

Posted under horse racing tips

Today is probably the quietest Saturday we will get
for a few months. No Flat cards at all. Kempton is an
awful card on the sand. That just leaves an all chase
card at Carlisle and Haydock where neither card has
a maiden or Novice Hurdle. It’s a very drab saturday.

Our season proper will start on Bank Holiday Monday.
Next week will be a significant week. The Flat starts to
take off and get busy and the Grand National meeting
at Aintree dominates so I can start to give more bets
and have much more choice and variety something I
just have not had this week or today which is awful.

Done what I can looking at a few races today but we
have not been offered anything interesting and Not
close to having a Bet today. There are a few horses
with good solid profiles today but not exceptionally
good ones. Reluctant to go with any horse today at
the top of the message. I’m not going to let the worst
Saturday Cards in months seduce me into a serious bet but
now the Flat is back we will get a lot busier from now on.

If stuck for inspiration today however consider the following

CARLISLE 4.00

More Live Football Betting At Totesport.com
Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+)  2m4f

13/8 Mr Woods, 3/1 Finney, 7/2 Youngstown
7/1 Ginolad, 15/2 Heez A Steel.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. There has been 453 similar
races at this time of year. I dont have a big problem with
FINNEY’s absence or the fact he is so lightly raced this
season but any horses that won with his profile had not
come from a Handicap. I couldnt find one from a Novice
Handicap and I wasn’t that impressed with his profile.

* YOUNGSTOWN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming down 12f in 17 days
* HEEZ A STEEL has a poor profile
* Exposed horses from hurdles struggled
* None dropped in trip and I thought he was unsafe
* GINOLAD has a difficult profile to read
* He is 10 and most of his career was in Australia
* He won the 2008 Australian Grand National
* Good start to his English career but he has regressed
* I couldnt rule him out but I couldnt find a similar winner
* I thought MR WOODS had the strongest profile

MR WOODS

* Males winning 2m 4f Novice Chase last time
* 13 or more career starts
* 5-6 runs this season
* Running within a month
* There were 20 horses with that profile and 10 won
* The 10 losers finished 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 F
* MR WOODS has a strong profile

5/2 at many including  PaddyPower s james BoyleSports bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

LINGFIELD 4.10

7/4 Becausewecan, 9/2 Dance The Star, 7/1 Cluain Alainn,
Samarinda, 10/1 Cashpoint.

This is a nasty framed race with 7 runners. Its a 0-92 handicap over 12 furlongs.
There has been 176 similar races at this time of year.
If you look at 4 year olds like BECAUSEWECAN who are having their
seasonal debuts when they have had 9 or more career starts their strike
rate dips dramatically and they have a 1-35 record with that winner having
far less weight. That would encourage me to oppose him first time out from his career high
handicap mark.  Equally no 4yo first time out debutant was like
CLUAIN ALAINN and he wouldnt interest me either. I think it is asking too
much of CASHPOINT to win this from a maiden and a small stable.
I think its between DANCE THE STAR and  SAMARINDA who finished
2nd and 5th in the same handicap  last time. DANCE THE STAR has a solid chance.
Statistically SAMARINDA has an excellent profile as a 7yo running well last time.
All his wins have been at shorter but he hasnt had a chance to show he stays properly
at 12f. He ran well over 12f last time but that was inconclusive.
He is probably value  but DANCE THE STAR did beat him last time.
I think I would have to bet one and save on another.
As SAMARINDA is better handicapped and a better price I’d see him as the best
option. Therefore DANCE THE STAR has to be the danger
but SAMARINDA the bet at around 7/1

SELECTION - SAMARINDA
7/1 betfred bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

I have a full Account Bet for full members today but due to respect for them

I can’t put it up here.

What I do have for you however on the free betting blog is some analysis for another race today.

This is just a small snippet from the full member message.

SANDOWN 2.45

Chemring Group Handicap Chase
(for The Alanbrooke Challenge Cup)
(CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-135) 3m110y

5/2 Shillingstone, 4/1 Any Currency, 6/1 Ma Yahab,
8/1 Double Eagle, 9/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Bowleaze,
14/1 Maktu ,14/1 Mount Sandel, 20/1 Wind Instrument
50/1 Offaly.

* This is a 3m Handicap Chase for 0-135 rated horses
* Sandown has had 27 similar races at this time of year
* There are 233 similar races elsewhere

This has been a lightweights race. The 27 Sandown races
show horses with 11st 10lbs or more having a 1-47 record.
SHILLINGSTONE doesnt appeal to me off topweight. He
looks vulnerable mixing a high weight with an absence as
a very lightly raced horse. You wont find a winner in 233
races anywhere that had a 7 week absence and a weight
or more than 11st 6lbs when as lightly raced as He is so
I am opposing SHILLINGSTONE. I think OFFALY looks
outclassed. MOUNT SANDEL has too much to do with
just 1 run this year and a large weight. I cant see a horse
like that winning. WIND INSTRUMENT has 2 poor runs
on his 2 runs this season and looks out of form. I think it
is likely BOWLEAZE is being aimed at the Kim Muir next
month. Besides that look at the 233 similar handicaps for
exposed horses that had not run in 10 weeks and there is
a 0-66 record there suggesting BOWLEAZE wont be fit.
ISN´T THAT LUCKY has a poor profile. He has to come
from 2m 4f with just two runs this year and no horse did
that in 233 races and he has a nasty absence as well. I
dont see MA YAHAB as the best option not exposed
and with just one run this season.

SHORTLIST

MAKTU
DOUBLE EAGLE
ANY CURRENCY

OR JAUNE has a strong profile. He is very similar to the
1992 winner and last years winner and he looks very well
treated at the moment. I like MAKTU who comes from a
Novice Handicap Chase. He is light on experience with
4 chase runs but his profile is interesting. Another lighter raced horse is DOUBLE EAGLE but he is unexposed and
comes out well statistically. ANY CURRENCY probably
has the strongest profile with the worry from his profile
the fact his trainer states he is only 90% ready and this
is a prep race for Cheltenham.

SELECTION

MAKTU 7/1

ANY CURRENCY (Saver 7/2)

Posted under horse racing tips