N e w m a r k e t   2.45

11/2 Clear Ice, 6/1 Witchry, 7/1 Time Medicean 8/1 Sutton Veny 10/1 Sarah4s Art, 12/1 Whitechapel, 16/1 Berbice, Den4s Gift 16/1 Emma4s Gift, 16/1 Rylee Mooch, 16/1 Sunshine Always 16/1 Tislaam, 16/1 Zowington, Lady Florence, 20/1 Silver Rime 25/1 Kinigi, 25/1 Quarrel, 33/1 Admirable Duchess, 33/1 Tadalavil.

* This is a race for Grey horses only
* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* There are 265 similar races at this time of year
* SUTTON VENY is a negative as a mare from 5f
* Mares from 5f races won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-41
* SUTTON VENY only has 3 runs this season
* SUTTON VENY looks weak with a career high mark
* ADMIRABLE DUCHESS fails the same statistic
* She is underraced for a mare from 5f and career high mark
* TIME MEDICEAN comes from a 5f race
* He has a months absence doing this which is a worry
* There were winners with that profile
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-49
* TIME MEDICEAN fails that with 4 runs this year
* TIME MEDICEAN won a 5f handicap last time
* No winners did that without a run in 2 weeks
* TIME MEDICEAN doesnt come out that well
* QUARREL – Must be opposed as a seasonal debutant
* WHITECHAPEL only has 1 run this season
* No winners came down in trip with 1 run that year (0-32)
* Well beaten last time WHITECHAPEL looks unsafe
* ZOWINGTON is 9 and absent 60 days
* No horse his age has won absent as long
* SARAH4S ART is 8 and absent 63 days
* He only has 3 runs this season as well
* I think he’s underraced this year with limited backclass
* EMMA4S GIFT is unsafe as a filly from  a Listed race
* Down from 8f no similar profiles won
* LADY FLORENCE didnt run well enough last time
* She will find this trip short of ideal as well
* TADALAVIL looks underraced this year
* I doubt he is in the form to win this
* SILVER RIME is an exposed horse from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* Similar horses aged 6 or more were 4-34
* All 4 winners had at least 6 runs that season
* SILVER RIME only has 4 runs this year
* All 4 winners had no more than 9st 2lbs
* SILVER RIME has 8lbs more weight than any
* SILVER RIME looks unsafe to me statistically
* SILVER RIME has 30 runs but just 1 run at this trip
* He was hammered in that race so he is unproven at 6f
* TISLAAM is an exposed 4yo from 6f
* There are winners doing that but 2 problems
* None carried 8st 8lbs or less and he has 8st 3lbs
* All similar 4yo winners had Class 3 form at least
* TISLAAM has only raced in Class 4 and below
* I do like the recent run and the handicap mark
* Question marks as to whether he’s classy enough
* BERBICE is an exposed 6yo from a 5f race
* I found found a winner like him
* Therefore he is not a negative
* He is on a losing run of 29 though
* Not proven in a big field there are doubts
* I didnt think he offered enough

P o s s i b l e s

* WITCHRY won this race last season
* I thought he was underraced last year but he won
* The race cut up because of rain and only 9 ran last year
* I can’t rule him out after last years win
* Not having had far more runs this season
* WITCHRY doesnt feel safe statistically
* He won last time but he lacks a run in 2 weeks
* No horse won again doing that when older than 6
* WITCHRY is 9 now and thats a concern
* Statistically he is weak and unlike winners
* I said that last year though and he won

* SUNSHINE ALWAYS has a reasonably good profile
* I found a couple of similar 5yo winners like him
* He was 3rd in this race last year finishing fast
* That was his first ever run at this distance
* He would have won in a few more strides
* The issue is has he got the pace to win this 6f race
* Especially in a big field

* CLEAR ICE is an exposed 4yo
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* He has just won 0-74 and 0-79 handicaps
* This is a 0-85 and a little bit tougher
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* I Dont see his chance as better than many
* He has 42 runs and none were on a Grade 1 track
* He was also bought to try and win this race though

* DEN4S GIFT is an exposed 7yo from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* He has a similar profile to Silver Rime
* DEN4S GIFT is just a year older
* He does have more runs this season though
* Thats his crucial advantage over that horse
* DEN4S GIFT is similar to 1 past winner
* DEN4S GIFT has a 0-20 record on turf
* Not worried about that as he has placed many times
* All his wins come at 7f and 8f though
* I wouldnt rule him out but there are doubts
* He will need to be on the right side drawn 20

S e l e c t i o n

KINIGI 25/1
RYLEE MOOCH 16/1

* KINIGI is an exposed mare from 5f
* She has never been out of a Class 4 race before
* Similar horses had a 1-14 record
* That winner was Clearing Sky in this race in 2006
* Clearing Sky had a long absence that day
* KINIGI doesnt but I’d make her a Possible
* I doubt she will win but 33/1 is a fair risk

RYLEE MOOCH 14/1

We have yet to have a 3yo winner of this race but
very few were fancied anyway and there seems no
reason at all why they can’t win. There are 265 of
these 6f Handicaps at this time of year and these
races show horses like RYLEE MOOCH are fine.

* Male horses aged 3
* Coming from 5f races
* Between 13 and 20 career starts
* No form beyond a Class 3 race before
* At least 7 runs that season
* Beaten last time but not by more than 10 lengths
* Not carrying more than 9st 6lbs
* Having won a race before
* Starting shorter than 25/1
* RYLEE MOOCH has this profile
* I ran it and found a 5-8 record

Thats a very good record. Admittedly some were
a few years ago and only 1 of the 5 winners were
in a big field. I would have liked a past winner of
this race his age but as I Said few were fancied and
overall his profile is better than anything else here.

S e l e c t i o ns

RYLEE MOOCH 18/1  Tote betfred
KINIGI 25/1 at many including s james PaddyPower or 38/1 Betfair

Posted under horse racing tips

Goodwood 2.15

7/2 Parisian Pyramid, 5/1 Take Ten, 6/1 Lui Rei
15/2 Dungannon, 15/2 Fathsta, 8/1 Crown Choice
11/1 Lutine Bell, 12/1 Love Delta, 14/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
16/1 Everymanforhimself, 16/1 Slip Sliding Away
20/1 Rowe Park, 25/1 Corporal Maddox.

This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f. There are 40
similar races at this time of year. I want to take
on the 4 year old seasonal debutants today.

* May has seen 272 Class 2 Handicaps
* Thats 272 Class 2 Handicaps at Every Distance
* There were 36 seasonal debutant winners aged 4
* 35 of these had 12 or fewer career starts
* Those that had 13 or more career starts were 1-65
* That winner had Pattern Class form.
* The 4 year old debutants with 13 + runs struggled
* TAKE TEN fails that with 17 career starts
* Starting the year on a career high mark he isnt for me
* LOVE DELTA fails this statistic with 18 runs
* SLIP SLIDING AWAY also fails this statistic
* He has it all to do from his draw anyway
* ROWE PARK is wrong aged 8 from 5f
* LUTINE BELL – Badly drawn and poor last run
* CORPORAL MADDOX didnt do enough last time
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH comes out badly from an 8f race
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – doesnt offer enough
* FATHSTA is exposed and comes from a 7f race
* With 1-2-3 runs this year there were 2 similar winners
* Both had low weights though and he has 10st
* On a Career high mark it may be too much for him
* CROWN CHOICE – Respected but below par last time
* All similar horses that won did more last time out
* DUNGANNON is 4 and has 1 run this season
* Similar horses had  2-59 Record
* Both winners had more runs than he does
* None ran in the past fortnight (0-23) like him
* DUNGANNON is not far away but not quite right
* PARISIAN PYRAMID won this race last year
* He is exposed and drops from 7f with 2 runs this year
* I found 1 winner like him who ran much better last time
* PARISIAN PYRAMID may not have done enough

S e l e c t i o n

* LUI REI comes from 5f but happy with that
* His recent run makes all the difference
* He has been shaping up very well recently
* Impressive last time on tape he looks ready to win

Posted under horse racing tips

Lingfield 4.55

More Live Football At Totesport.com Handicap
(Turf) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f

9/2 Bowmaker, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 13/2 Space Station
8/1 Buxton, 8/1 Wilfred Pickles, 10/1 Free For All
10/1 Seek The Fair Land, 12/1 Red Yarn, 14/1 Aldermoor
16/1 Leadenhall Lass, 16/1 Nezami, 16/1 Slugger O´toole
20/1 Aye Aye Digby.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-84
* There are 156 similar races at this time of year
* You want a high draw in these races
* Since 2008 there were 23 Handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3 had a poor 1-73 record
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 11-5-16-12-18-6-14-10-11-15-17-8-10
* AYE AYE DIGBY is out drawn 1
* No exposed horse won absent more than 7 months
* ALDERMOOR doesnt appeal in stall 2
* He is an exposed debutant and may need the run
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE has a poor draw in stall 3
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE is exposed and first time out
* RED YARN is not drawn well in stall 4
* She is a 4yo filly racing first time out
* 4yo fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 0-38 record
* FREE FOR ALL is 4 and last ran in a Maiden last year
* Horses doing that with 2 or more runs were 0-15
* I don’t like her inexperience or his stable
* LEADENHALL LASS is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares with 1 run this season have a 2-61 record
* None of these won or placed last time out
* She find it hard to follow up with just 1 run
* She won a small field 0-74 last time and this is better
* BOWMAKER has a good draw but a questionable profile
* I looked at 4yo Males with under 13 career starts
* BOWMAKER is 4 and has only raced 7 times
* Those 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year were 2-73
* Not a good record and both winners had Class 2 form
* Those like BOWMAKER who didnt were 0-48
* NEZAMI is respected despite being underraced
* I cant find a similar winner his age
* Not exposed with 1 run this year and an absence
* I Suspect he will need 1 more run this season
* WILFRED PICKLES is 5 and drops down in distance
* No problem doing that but most winners had more backclass
* He has no form beyond this class and it hurts his chance
* So far he has lost in all 15 races on turf
* All came from lower handicap marks as well
* His 42 day absence hurts him as well
* I also wonder if the ground may be too quick
* Given all that and stall 5 of 13 he isnt for me
* BUXTON is fine statistically
* I just question whether he is up to this class
* Most of his runs/wins are against slightly weaker horses
* He is up in class today as well
* One or two may have more talent
* He seems to need to go round a bend as well

SHORTLIST

* DEN´S GIFT has a decent profile
* He is 7 with 3 runs this year running well last time
* I found 3 winners with his profile
* All 3 did have a bit less weight
* He is also 0-19 on Grass and has one of the weaker riders
* I see him as shortlistable though

* SPACE STATION is a 5yo male down from 8f
* SPACE STATION was well beaten last time 5 days ago
* He caught the eye last time but he often does
* I ran his profile carefully
* I found 1 similar winner with slight differences
* That winner had just over a weeks break not under
* That winner had less weight as well
* He didnt come from the sand either
* He isnt that well handicapped either
* He will also have to make sure he runs prominently
* He could throw away a good draw if he doesnt

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a strong profile
* Male 5 year old exposed with 2 runs this season
* Coming from a 7f handicap with Class 2 backclass
* I found 4 similar winners with that profile
* Those not beaten more than 10 lengths were best
* Those not winning last time were best
* Similar horses had a 2-5 record
* All his wins are on Sand but hes had few turf oppurtunities
* Last time on Grass he was 3rd in a 0-95 Handicap
* That was a much better race and he was out of the weights
* Absent more than 10 weeks before that race as well
* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a serious chance

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 8/1    Sky   s james

Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

TODAY’S BEST BET

WARWICK 1.40

THE QUANTUM KID 10/1

Each Way

I have 4 additional bets for full members and all 4
could have beencontenders for my best bet today.
I have decided that a couple of these are short
enough prices in their races and the other pair
and in tough races so I have decided to go with
a bit of value today.

I like the Novice Handicap at Warwick and have
been playing some videos here. Complicated race
but I am convinced you want a Novice Hurdler in
ths sort of race that is lightly raced and ideally a
lighter weighted horse. I think ART BROKER is
my biggest danger around 6/1 and could have the
ability to go very close on his flat form. I’d drawn
more towards THE QUANTUM KID 10/1 here.

I liked him a lot on Video last time. He should be
thrown in off a mark of 98. His last run was in an
unusually warm Southwell Novice Hurdle when he
led jumping really well and only got caught 2 out.
That run was bound to have been needed after an
absence. The horses beating him are different class
and rated much higher than any of todays rivals.

Trainer Robin Dickin said last year that he wanted
to get the horse handicapped. He had a pelvis injury
so had time off last year but his last run tells me he’s
capable of winning off this mark. His trainer won the
race last year. He has a good record at his local track.
There is a little bit of market support as well which
doesn’t hurt. I feel there is optimism that he can go
very close in a bad race at a decent price. I will risk
him as my best bet today rather than the obvious.

WARWICK 1.40

Warwick Supports The Racing Lottery
Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110)  2m

7/2 Shalambar, 11/2 Art Broker, 13/2 Switched Off
13/2 Tara Warrior, 10/1 Kayfton Pete, 10/1 Peace Corps
12/1 Jomade, 12/1 Mega Watt, 12/1 Nosecond Chance
16/1 Hail Caesar, 16/1 Irish Symphony, The Quantum Kid
20/1 Superior Knight, 33/1 Cruise Control.

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle. There are 36 similar races at this time of year.
SHALAMBAR is a 5 year old and I think the wrong type of 5 year old.
First of all 5 year olds that won last time out were 0-14 and those that placed last time are 0-29.
Horses aged 5 from Handicaps had a weak 1-48 record.
The 5 year olds you want are lightly raced types unplaced in a Novice
Hurdle last time and SHALAMBAR is not that type so I want to oppose him.
HAIL CAESAR is also the wrong type of 5 year old.
I think CRUISE CONTROL has too much to do.
I feel SUPERIOR KNIGHT has stamina doubts.
Horses coming from Novice Hurdles are fine assuming certain conditions.
The Novice Hurdlers all had fewer runs than TARA WARRIOR
so he looks vulnerable and none won with his absence and that’s enough
to take him out. IRISH SYMPHONY is a mare and I don’t think in good enough form.
MEGA WATT comes out badly. I cut him some slack down in trip but his profile is
not safe enough. I dont like JOMADE hammered at 100/1 in his
Novice Hurdle last time. KAYFTON PETE is a little exposed
for a 5 year old to come from a Novice Hurdle especially with no
Graded form and such a high weight. A shortlist of 4 horses.

PEACE CORPS – Impossible to read. First run for new stable

SWITCHED OFF – Shortlistable but not quite right

NOSECOND CHANCE – Acceptable Profile but big weight

ART BROKER – There are similar winners

THE QUANTUM KID – The right type of profile

I have listed these in order of profile. PEACE CORPS is
the most riSky. SWITCHED OFF has a slightly better one.
NOSECONDCHANCE can’t be ruled out. Best profile for
me is ART BROKER and THE QUANTUM KID both of
these lightly raced Novice Hurdlers.  Impossible to know
how much of their ability has been hidden or how much
they will be showing today. Both Trainers have angles I
like here. I think ART BROKER is the biggest danger.

SELECTION

THE QUANTUM KID EACH WAY 10/1

Blog Comment:
10/1 was available earlier when this was provided to Mathematician members.

Best Bookmaker Price now 8/1 at numerous places eg Ladbrokes Hills bet365
See http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-02-12/warwick/13-40/betting/

PS This free blog just gets small snippets.

The above is only a small part of todays full message.

Join up to get the full picture.

There is a refund guarantee you can call on if not for you.

Posted under horse racing tips

A small snippet from the full member message today for you.

to learn more about the full service click here ==> Betting Advice

LINGFIELD 3.25

Hollow Lane Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 1m4f

9/4 Lovers Causeway, 5/1 King Olav, 6/1 Distinctive Image
6/1 Taaresh, 8/1 Mighty Clarets, 8/1 Scamperdale
14/1 Record Breaker, 20/1 Pelham Crescent
25/1 Mister New York, 100/1 Rugell.

This is a 12f Handicap for horses rated 0-91 and we have 176 similar races at this time of year.
Taking a few of these out It is hard to see RUGELL winning.
PELHAM CRESCENT doesnt look fit or ready to win.
MISTER NEW YORK looks unsafe to me.
SCAMPERDALE ‘s done all his winning at 10f and shorter and may not be at his best trip.
He’s 9 and comes up in distance and the only horses his age doing that had Group Class
form in the past and he does not.
RECORD BREAKER is another up in trip.
For him to have matched any winners he needed to have a more recent run
and ran better last time out. TAARESH won a 12f handicap last time out.
It was a weaker race and he won it
with a long absence. It bothers me he moves from 0-75 to this 0-91 grade and has a 10lbs higher mark.
He is up 2 grades and with 1 run only since last June I think he’s unsafe.
I don’t have a big problem statistically with DISTINCTIVE IMAGE but
we have better profiles and he doesn’t look well handicapped. I do respect
KING OLAV but I prefer others in this race.
I thought  MIGHTY CLARETS came out well but there is a strong profile.

* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has a strong profile
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a 12f Handicap last time
* Running within 2 weeks
* Carrying less than 9st 9lbs
* No form beyond a Class 3 Grade before
* Between 9 and 20 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a 8-11 record
* Those ridden by Professional jockeys were 8-9
* They finished W W W W 3 W W W W
* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has that profile

SELECTION – LOVERS CAUSEWAY

currently 5/2 at s james

Posted under horse racing tips