Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham 3.20

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

The main issues are well documented. I feel
LAST INSTALMENT has every chance and has
one of the best two profiles. My each way bet
ON HIS OWN is obviously a hard case to make.
I think he is a crazy sort of price and although
many argue he fails trends it is not necessarily
the case. I think these 2 have serious chances.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

7/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 13/2 Last Instalment
8/1 Triolo D´alene, 14/1 The Giant Bolster 16/1 On His Own
25/1 Lord Windermere, 33/1 Teaforthree
40/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Katenko, 66/1 Cloudy Too
66/1 Knockara Beau, 100/1 Houblon Des Obeaux.

* The Blue Riband event of the festival
* Lets get rid of the No Hopers
* Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race since 1969.
* KNOCKARA BEAU is too old and not good enough
* KATENKO and CLOUDY TOO are outclassed
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is not good enough
* TEAFORTHREE is out of his depth

* TRIOLO D´ALENE won the Hennessy last time out
* Bobs Worth did that recently but I can’t have him
* Bobs Worth was a Grade 1 Festival winner
* TRIOLO D´ALENE has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* His 2 previous runs here were heavy defeats
* TRIOLO D´ALENE is rated only 158 far too low

* LORD WINDERMERE and LYREEN LEGEND are connected
* They were 1st and 2nd in last years RSA Chase at the festival

* LYREEN LEGEND was 2nd in last years RSA Chase
* It would worry me he has won just 1 of 8 Chases
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* LYREEN LEGEND only managed a rating of 154
* After 18 career starts 154 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Every other horse has bettered that rating before
* That amongst other things must rule him out

* LORD WINDERMERE has a similar profile and problem
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* After 15 career starts 157 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Almost every other horse has bettered that rating before
* LORD WINDERMERE only managed a rating of 157

Now if LYREEN LEGEND or LORD WINDERMERE win this
race at a big price it will be down to the fact the course
ground or time of year brings them alive but I suspect it
was a very poor RSA Chase last year which was openly
said at the time and these two dominated a bad renewal
and it is hard to make a case for them when they have a
set of numbers that just look so far behind the standard.

SILVINIACO CONTI

I don’t doubt he has enough ability to win this race but
I feel he is too short around 100/30 for a horse that may
not stay. When he fell in last year’s race some argue he
wasn’t beaten but I doubt he would have stayed on well
enough to win. I question his stamina. I don’t like horses
that are undersized like him. He isn’t a big horse and he
is not proven yet in a field as big as this. Statistical he’s
fine but I don’t like his size and question his stamina as
he is taking on some big Irish improvers with substance.

BOBS WORTH

Little doubt he’s top class and won this last year and was
always going to have a good profile this year. He has got
a massive chance but not really for me. I wouldn’t want to
ask him to win this again. It was a gruelling race last year
and he was in trouble at one stage before staying on late.
On this ground he could find himself in more trouble and
having to come from off the pace. We can’t be sure last
years race has not left it’s mark. Last season he recorded
Racing Post Ratings of 167 174 and 181 yet this year from
two runs he has clocked just 142 and 163 and there is the
possibility he won’t recapture last years form. He is still
the most likely winner but at the price I am against him.
He touched 10/1 in running last year and on fast ground
he could easily do the same this year. I just don’t like the
short price when he will be carrying battle scars this year.

 

THE GIANT BOLSTER

* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 19 previous chase runs
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* He is now out of range of the ideal profile
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* He was 4th last year and 2nd in 2012 though
* He Loves the track and has plenty of class
* I did see him as a potential each way bet at 16/1
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* He should love the ground but the field size worries me
* 14 runners is not as small as I’d like
* I think he is at the limit of his stamina
* He has won over 3m 1f 100 yds before
* His Sire has not yet bred a winner winning over further
* You couldn’t rule him out but maybe just falls short

ON HIS OWN

* This horse is a 10 year old
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 1-93 record since 1993
* It’s not the best of records but don’t worry about that
* He is a late foal and actually not quite 10 yet in real terms
* ON HIS OWN does have only 12 career starts though
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* That goes a log way to compensating for his age
* He also didn’t start racing until he was almost 6 years old
* I have mentioned I think he will win the Grand National
* He has every right to run here after a brilliant last win
* His last 2 runs show significant improvement
* There is a case that he jumps a bit right handed
* He has won left handed three times before though
* The track is an open question mark
* Ignore his poor run here back in 2011 over 4m
* He had no chance in that race and it’s irrelevant
* He was 4th in a Neptune Hurdle which is encouraging
* Ability wise I think he has everything he needs to win
* Just not sure about whether he can deliver here or not

LAST INSTALMENT

* He is a lightly raced improver
* He won the Irish Hennessy last time
* He has won 5 of his 6 Chase runs so far
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* LAST INSTALMENT has 6 runs and I quite like that
* One of his problem is No form at Cheltenham
* That is a disadvantage he has to overcome
* 13 of the last 16 winners placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
* The other is the ground as most of his form’s on soft
* Said to have fragile tendons it would be a worry
* That said the new course is slower than the old course
* He has a very appealing profile and the potential to win

 

Selections

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

For Live best odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2014-03-14/cheltenham/15-20/betting/

 

 

 

FREE £10 No Lose Bet On The Gold Cup
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Our Cheltenham Deal

Our deal page is still live at

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Whist being Cheltenham titled it is actually a full month of Full Membership at half price. The 14 day zero strings refund gives you plenty of time to test and kick the tryes fo the full memebr’s service.

I will keep it live till after the weekend then it is gone again till next year.

 

 

 

 

Saturday Day Pass

 

After the highs of Cheltenham we are back to the daily grind of finding edge for our clients in normal racing. For those of you who really only have time to ponder racing on a Saturday note that our dip in dip out as you choose Saturday Day Pass is now open.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass/

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Bookmaker Expense Claim

No joy last week on the free blog with Wotova only placing.
He did run again yesterday however and I pointed full members to him.
This time he won at a decent price.
It happens often when you can spot a horse in the zone of winning
that he may not please you first run but the following time out.

Last week I mentioned the firm bet was full member only.
That did very well for them.
Structured as two win bets and an each way double on
Ascot 1.45 – SHOW FLOWER 3/1
Nottingham 2.00 – DISPOL GRAND 7/2

Both horses won landing a good profit.

We had another good day on Friday with a 10/1 firm bet winner.

The full member service is in great form with profit on turnover on my firm tips
running at a level of about 40% for the past 8 months or so of current message format.

Today for full members I have covered 15 races spread between
the three main meetings at Newmarket, Newbury and Thirsk.
It’s quite a typical Saturday with some taxing handicaps and lots
of pitfalls on quality tracks with very few favours given.

I do have a firm full member bet in the 4.15
Join at link below for instant access
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

For the free blog tip today I am again posting up one of the additional races I have examined.

N e w b u r y 3.05

11/4 Thomas Chippendale, 9/2 Hajras, 8/1 Expense Claim
8/1 Rewarded, 10/1 Almuftarris, Icelander, 14/1 Clayton
14/1 Poetic Lord, 14/1 Trader Jack, 16/1 Al Saham
16/1 Hurricane In Dubai, 33/1 Humungosaur
33/1 Tidal Way, 50/1 Mcvicar.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 10f
* Recent evidence suggests avoid the very low draws
* Since 2011 there were 15 handicaps with 9 runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 had a 1-57 record
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 8 5 14 8 6 5 2 5 10 12 6 9 11 13 14
* ICELANDER is unsafe and is also drawn 1
* POETIC LORD is drawn 2 and opposed
* He is quite exposed for seasonal debutant
* HAJRAS isn’t drawn well in stall 3
* I dont like him from a 3yo handicap over 8f
* There were several winners doing that
* None had 2 runs like HAJRAS
* Those like HAJRAS winning last time were 0-16
* REWARDED also won a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* We know all 16 horses doing that failed
* TRADER JACK didnt run well enough last time
* I feel the same about TIDAL WAY
* HURRICANE IN DUBAI won a maiden last time
* None did that with only 2 career starts
* HUMUNGOSAUR – Too exposed to be beaten so far
* MCVICAR – Unlikely to hold off the improvers
* AL SAHAM – No winners came from Pattern class as 2yo’s
* CLAYTON – Not far away but only 2 runs
* The only horses like him had 3 runs and I’d prefer that
* ALMUFTARRIS won a 10f maiden last time
* Normally that was a bad profile in this race
* The 2010 winner did win with the same profile though
* That gets him respect but he is the owners 2nd string

Shortlist

* EXPENSE CLAIM – Good solid all round profile
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE – 1 similar winner
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE is the most likely winner
* I’d want to include both horses in the staking plan
* Given the prices I am drawn to the bigger priced horse

Selection

EXPENSE CLAIM 7/1 Win Bet blue sq – betfredWilliam Hillbet365

THOMAS CHIPPENDALE 9/4 Saver Bet blue sq

Live market odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-19/newbury/15-05/betting/

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Ascot

A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 bet365 betfred Sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Betting At Sandown

Last day of the flat season today but we are seeking a profit in one of the National Hunt races at Sandown.

 

S a n d o w n  3.30

3/1 Hold On Julio, 7/2 Very Stylish, 6/1 Earth Planet
7/1 Moleskin, 8/1 Craiglands, 8/1 Pak Jack, 8/1 Soixante
9/1 Appleaday, 50/1 Local Present.

This is an interesting 3m Handicap Chase. I looked at
all similar races at this time of year. They all have to
be considered expect maybe LOCAL PRESENT. I am
going to oppose VERY STYLISH. He won on his chase
debut but that was a long time ago now and I wasnt too
impressed. I’m in no hurry to bet PAK JACK as he is a
11 year old seasonal debutant with topweight and has a
career high mark and poor win record. I cant rule out
several of these but two horses did stand out here.

HOLD ON JULIO

Initially I was going to make him a negative as there
are no Handicap Chases won by horses coming from a
Maiden hunter Chase. Then I can across this statistic.

* Horses coming from all Hunter Chases
* Having Under 9 career starts
* First Time Out
* There were 9 horses with that profile
* These horses had a very interesting 5-9 record

It strikes me the only reason to run a Hunter Chaser
like HOLD ON JULIO in a race like this is because he
is very well handicapped. He has won point to points
as well as his Hunter Chase win and Alan King has not
bought him for nothing. I have to see him in a different
light despite the fact the brilliant 5-9 record of Hunter
Chasers doesnt include winners from maiden hunters.

EARTH PLANET

There is a very good record in this race for horses
aged 9 that have recent runs especially over 3m or
more. Having a recent run has been a big help here.
When you consider the Whip Rules now that might
even be more of a help to EARTH PLANET. After
all apart from the “no hoper” All seven of his main
rivals are seasonal debutants. EARTH PLANET has
a considerable fitness advantage with 4 races so Far
this season. He has just placed at Cheltenham in a
similar Class race.  Yes he is frustrating and hard to
win with but he consistently runs well and has form
on right handed tracks and has shown he has enough
ability to win this race. Given how helpful its been
to have a recent run in this race I have to fancy him.

Selection

I do like two here a lot. I feel I have to have a saver
on HOLD ON JULIO around 3/1 but I think there is
a very good chance EARTH PLANET’s fitness may
get him home today and I like him each way.

EARTH PLANET 7/1 Each Way
HOLD ON JULIO 3/1 + Saver Bet

Best odds at time of free blog post

Earth Planet 7/1 LadbrokesTote

Hold On Julio VC – Totebetfred

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Newmarket

N e w m a r k e t   4.25

7/4 Jet Away, 3/1 Dux Scholar, 9/2 Retrieve
6/1 Slumber, 12/1 Honour System, Dangerous Midge
14/1 Mantoba, 16/1 Classic Punch.

I have never done this race before. Think I know
why as its a race that gets mixed up with a similar
race. Its a 10f Listed race for all aged horses. Not
much I can do here. I have a decent profile I like
so will go with him. Some of these are very hard
to rate. Not sure several are safe with only 1 run
in months. I can’t tell how fit they are and to be
fair there are past winners doing that. Giving up
on profiles that beat me but I do have one decent
profile here and thats my choice DUX SCHOLLAR.

* DUX SCHOLAR has the best profile
* Horses aged 3 coming from a Conditions race
* Running over 8f 9f 10f last time out
* Running within a Month
* Between 7 and 12 career runs
* Between 4 -5 -6 runs that season
* There were 3 horses with that profile
* They finished W W W
* The winners in 1994 2000 2001

Selection DUX SCHOLAR

11/4 in several spots including Paddy Power blue sq bet365 vc

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 29, 2011

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