N e w m a r k e t   2.05

11/4 Pekan Star, 7/2 Kirthill, 7/1 Licence To Till
8/1 Taqleed, 8/1 Tiger Reigns, 10/1 Classic Punch
10/1 Demolition, 12/1 Prince Of Johanne
16/1 Sour Mash, 25/1 Starkat, 33/1 World Heritage.

* This is a 10f Handicap in Class 2
* There are only 33 of these handicaps in August.
* SOUR MASH and STARKAT lack fitness
* WORLD HERITAGE doesnt appeal
* I want to take on PEKAN STAR the favourite
* Horses aged 4 won 16 of the 33 races
* None like PEKAN STAR had under 5 runs
* Those like him with 1-2 runs that year were 0-26
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time were 0-60
* PEKAN STAR fails all these angles
* He has much potential but he comes out badly
* PRINCE OF JOHANNE – Doesnt come out well enough
* TIGER REIGNS is an exposed 5yo from a 10f race
* I found 2 similar winners but they had 11lbs less weight
* DEMOLITION is underraced this season
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* CLASSIC PUNCH is a little underraced for an 8yo
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* I see him as unsafe but not out of it

S h o r t l i s t

* LICENCE TO TILL – Good profile if handling ground
* KIRTHILL has a decent profile
* TAQLEED is 4 with 5-12 runs and 1-2-3 that year
* I found 4 similar winners but all were 1-2-3-4 last time out
* TAQLEED was beaten a bit further than all of these
* I still respect him as he had excuses last time
* I hated his profile and he was eased once beaten
* He is priced up here on his last run
* Several of todays horses beat him that day
* Only just though and TAQLEED was favourite last time
* Excuses before that he shouldnt be 8/1
* TAQLEED each way looks a decent option

8/1 at various including bet 365,  Ladbrokes , Tote , Sky bet

Cheers Guy

PS Ladbrokes have just upped their new account free bet offer to £50 to tie in with the soccer season kicking off.  Knowing them this is a temporary thing and it will probably drop again to something smaller in the near future.

So if you don’t yet have a Ladbrokes account today might be a smart day to open one

Posted under horse racing tips

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

I am glad to see a few of you registered here on the blog bothered to
add a few comments of thanks.

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral bet365 William Hill

Posted under horse racing tips

Apache Glory won well for us last weekend at 6/1 advised.

Today there are a lot of short priced favourites in handicaps
I have made negatives today so it should be interesting.
I wont get them all right but there are several of these.
In the 2.30 at Ascot I think MACS POWER has a big
chance against a bad favourite. Although admittedly it
is a bit contradictory I think my negative RITUAL is
actually a sensible place bet at evens and I plan to go
for a place bet on him and win bet on MACS POWER
rather than the other option MACS POWER eachway.

A s c o t   2.30

5/1 Ritual, 7/1 Mac4s Power, 8/1 Dungannon
9/1 Piazza San Pietro, 10/1 L4ami Louis, 12/1 Johannes
12/1 R Woody, 12/1 Racy, 12/1 Secret Witness, 14/1 Baby Strange
14/1 Courageous, 14/1 Imperial Guest, 16/1 Lutine Bell 16/1 Mon Brav,
16/1 Singeur, 25/1 Edge Closer
25/1 Noble Citizen, 33/1 Below Zero, 33/1 Tamagin.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* RITUAL has a bad profile from a 5f race
* He is 4 and only has 1 run this season
* Horses from 5f races aged 4 were 0-32
* No horse came from 5f without 5 runs that year
* I will be surprised if Ritual wins this
* MON BRAV is a negative aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* RACY is a negative  aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* L4AMI LOUIS is wrong as a 3yo
* None won with under 7 runs or 4 this year
* L4AMI LOUIS doesnt have that and is weak
* BABY STRANGE – Wrong from a 5f race
* R WOODY is underraced for a 4yo with 13 + runs
* All similar 4 year olds needed 5 + runs that season
* COURAGEOUS – Needs more runs down from 7f
* JOHANNES – His age are weak and he isnt right
* PIAZZA SAN PIETRO – Can’t dismiss him but unsafe
* I’d be worried about the ground for him
* IMPERIAL GUEST – Wanted a better last run
* LUTINE BELL – Small chance but ground worries
* SINGEUR – I liked him more than his profile
* I Couldnt match him to any winners though
* DUNGANNON is 4 and won last time out
* The 4 year olds doing that did have more runs
* They had more runs that season as well
* If I am strict then DUNGANNON falls short
* SECRET WITNESS – Hard to read. Feels a big ask
* MAC4S POWER has to be a big positive
* I’d worry he is handicapped a bit too harshly
* Like his profile and he must go close

S E L E C T I O N

I have Ritual down as a negative but he is clearly a highly
regarded horse from outstanding connections. There lacks
a lot of strong profiles here as well and that tells me it will be too riSky to lay Ritual.
I am selecting an alternative but  it strikes me that with 4 places available
Ritual is going to be about 10/11 to 11/10 to be placed in the race and with  a
questionable field that may not be a bad price.
He could easily get beaten and place and the statistics to work out.
That seems a fair price to me.
It would even tempt me in a split stake bet with Ritual to place and MAC’S POWER being the main selecton in the race.

Coming in a touch now but 4/1 Mac’s Power available in several spots, bet365, PaddyPower , Ladbrokes, VC etc

Posted under horse racing tips

Some quick thoughts on L e i c e s t e r   3.20

* This is a Fillies Handicap just short of 10f
* Leicester has 3 past renewals of this race
* There are 76 similar races elsewhere
* Noted all 3 winners of this race had at least 4 runs that year
* Noted there were several here with just 1 run this year
* In 76 races I found 4 winners with just one run that year
* None had 13 or more runs and KEN4S GIRL fails that
* Dont like her aged 7 with 1 run and a career high mark
* GALE GREEN – GOLDEN DELICIOUS are wrong types
* No horse won with 1 run this year from 8f or shorter
* EVENING DRESS fails that
* HAYAKU also fails that as well
* BALLETLOU doesnt interest me first time out
* Horses aged 4 with 13 + runs won 10 races
* None had just 1-2-3 runs that year (0-22)
* ASHKALARA fails that and wouldnt be my choice
* SING SWEETLY technically fails that same angle
* I would ignore that as she has been shaping well
* SING SWEETLY could be the forgotten horse here
* She is unsafe but she is far too big at 16/1
* COSMIC MOON is 3 and drops from a 12f race
* The only 3yo’s doing that had more runs that season

S h o r t l i s t

* NIGHT LILY is exposed and comes from 8f
* Not a good record from similar horses
* None won without a run in the past 2 weeks
* She also has to prove she stays this far
* She is well handicapped and well raced this year
* That counts for plenty so she is shortlistable
* BOLLIN DOLLY is not right statistically aged 8 from 12f
* No horse aged 6 or more won coming from 12f
* She did win the race last year and is well handicapped
* She is also well raced this year
* Those factors get her on the shortlist
* SING SWEETLY is shortlistable for earlier reasons
* APACHE GLORY won a 3yo handicap last time
* With 5-6 runs and 46 runs this year she is like 2 winners
* APACHE GLORY is a positive

SELECTION

APACHE GLORY – Win Bet 6/1 betfred s james Coral
SING SWEETLY – Win Bet 16/1 bet365 William Hill

Posted under horse racing tips

Goodwood 2.15

7/2 Parisian Pyramid, 5/1 Take Ten, 6/1 Lui Rei
15/2 Dungannon, 15/2 Fathsta, 8/1 Crown Choice
11/1 Lutine Bell, 12/1 Love Delta, 14/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
16/1 Everymanforhimself, 16/1 Slip Sliding Away
20/1 Rowe Park, 25/1 Corporal Maddox.

This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f. There are 40
similar races at this time of year. I want to take
on the 4 year old seasonal debutants today.

* May has seen 272 Class 2 Handicaps
* Thats 272 Class 2 Handicaps at Every Distance
* There were 36 seasonal debutant winners aged 4
* 35 of these had 12 or fewer career starts
* Those that had 13 or more career starts were 1-65
* That winner had Pattern Class form.
* The 4 year old debutants with 13 + runs struggled
* TAKE TEN fails that with 17 career starts
* Starting the year on a career high mark he isnt for me
* LOVE DELTA fails this statistic with 18 runs
* SLIP SLIDING AWAY also fails this statistic
* He has it all to do from his draw anyway
* ROWE PARK is wrong aged 8 from 5f
* LUTINE BELL – Badly drawn and poor last run
* CORPORAL MADDOX didnt do enough last time
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH comes out badly from an 8f race
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – doesnt offer enough
* FATHSTA is exposed and comes from a 7f race
* With 1-2-3 runs this year there were 2 similar winners
* Both had low weights though and he has 10st
* On a Career high mark it may be too much for him
* CROWN CHOICE – Respected but below par last time
* All similar horses that won did more last time out
* DUNGANNON is 4 and has 1 run this season
* Similar horses had  2-59 Record
* Both winners had more runs than he does
* None ran in the past fortnight (0-23) like him
* DUNGANNON is not far away but not quite right
* PARISIAN PYRAMID won this race last year
* He is exposed and drops from 7f with 2 runs this year
* I found 1 winner like him who ran much better last time
* PARISIAN PYRAMID may not have done enough

S e l e c t i o n

* LUI REI comes from 5f but happy with that
* His recent run makes all the difference
* He has been shaping up very well recently
* Impressive last time on tape he looks ready to win

Posted under horse racing tips