LINGFIELD 5.30

6/1 My Learned Friend, 13/2 Hazzard County, Oh So Saucy
7/1 Shaded Edge, 8/1 Realt Na Mara, 8/1 Rubenstar
8/1 Straight Face, 10/1 Alqaahir, 12/1 Headache
12/1 Ravi River, 14/1 Carmenero, 14/1 El Libertador
25/1 Sam´s Cross, 33/1 Oi Vay Joe, 66/1 Crystal B Good.

This 7f handicap is for Lady Amateurs. You can argue a
high draw is a must in this race but last years winner was
drawn in stall 1 just to throw uncertainty into the mix.
I’d be demanding a high draw myself. OH SO SAUCY looks
weak as a mare absent over 7 months and drawn 1. I see
ALQAAHIR as opposable. All his wins (5) are on sand
so having never won on turf its strange to see him with
a higher handicap mark on grass and I don’t like his draw.
EL LIBERTADOR – CRYSTAL B GOOD -  HEADACHE
are all badly drawn and offering nothing at all to entice me.
OI VAY JOE has been absent too long. I am happy to ignore
SAM´S CROSS – SHADED EDGE with their absences.
HAZZARD COUNTY is more complicated but he does not
come out well enough. I cant rule out REALT NA MARA but
exposed and unraced in over 6 months brings it’s own problems.
RAVI RIVER looks weak from sellers. CARMENERO weak up in trip.

MY LEARNED FRIEND is shortlistable after coming
4th in last years race from a poor draw first time out.
He has a run this year.

My selection is STRAIGHT FACE who won last time.
Its quite interesting that the last 3 winners of this race
all won last time out. Since 1993 last time out winners
in all Amateur races that had 4 or more runs that year
and that were aged under 8 years old had an excellent
W W W W W record in these races. He was a little bit
lucky to win last time but the real issue is he is fit and
running well with confidence and well drawn and with
similar horses doing curiously well in these races I see
STRAIGHT FACE as a good a bet as any in this race.

STRAIGHT FACE Each Way
8/1 William Hill 0r betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

NOTTINGHAM 1.50

BET ON TotePLACEPOT AT ToteSPORT.COM
HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f13y

11/4 Silver Prelude, 9/2 Molly Two, 12/1 Bluebok,
12/1 Ryedane, 12/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 14/1 Gwilym,
16/1 Lake Chini, 16/1 Ronnie Howe, 16/1 The History
Man, 20/1 Comptonspirit, King Of Swords, 25/1
Brandywell Boy, 33/1 Thoughtsofstardom.

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-70 horses
* Nottingham has 11 renewals of this race
* There has been 162 similar races elsewhere
* Taking the Nottingham race first
* Horses with under 21 career runs were 0-70
* Horses that came from 6f or more were 0-36
* None of the 11 winners were aged 8 or more
* Horses with under 9st scored badly (1-84)
* Horses absent over a month also struggled

Some of these trends have to be broken today and I think the horse that will do it is SILVER PRELUDE. I totally agree with the Racing Post that now he is back at 5f he can dominate the stands rain. SILVER PRELUDE may be better on the sand but he is also effective on turf. He is very well handicapped off 55. He has his lowest turf mark in years and if you look at the class of horse he was facing a few months ago it dwarfs these. His turf form isnt as good but it is still more than good enough to beat this 0-70 field. Dont forget he is just about bottomweight as well for this and all his 3 wins on Turf have been over 5f. I think he could blow these away on his best form. He comes from a Folkestone race where he made all the running for the first 5f. He came into that race with question marks. He had lost in every 6f race he had contested before. He was an 8yo absent over a month so could have been fitter. This front runner needs the drop down in trip and I cant see many of these catching him in this race. There are certainly some negatives about his opponents.

* There has been 162 of these 5f handicaps in May
* Fillies that had under 9 starts had a poor 2-71 record
* None of those had just 1 run that season (0-20)
* None of those were aged 4 or more (0-30)
* MOLLY TWO fails those trends
* Fillies aged 4 with under 13 runs won just 3 of the 162 races
* None had under 3 runs this season though
* MOLLY TWO has that to overcome
* All winning fillies had more backclass than her
* LAKE CHINI is out aged 7 with long absence
* KING OF SWORDS doesnt look ready to win
* THE HISTORY MAN has all his wins after July
* He should need more runs to get to peak fitness
* TYRANNOSAURUS REX is exposed with a 44 day break
* Exposed Male horses that had run this year struggled with absence
* Those like him absent over a month were 1-116
* All 42 aged 5 like TYRANNOSAURUS REX lost
* I think the absence beats TYRANNOSAURUS REX
* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is in the same boat

I think there are several that might win this if others
dissapoint. I quite like the mare COMPTONSPIRIT
as a big priced runner but the way this should map
out is that SILVER PRELUDE a fit and in form and
very well handicapped runner should make all and
run these into the ground. I will be surprised if any
horse manages to get to him and overtake him.

SHORTLIST

* COMPTONSPIRIT is value at 25/1
* She was 4th in this race last year
* I like her profile and she fits the “Nottingham” stats
* SILVER PRELUDE looks the one

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

Silver Prelude is 3/1 with Sportingbet and Betfair
Silver Prelude is 11/4 with bet365 – betfred – Blue Squareuare
Silver Prelude is 5/2 with Tote – VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 162

Saturday 6th September

2 Account Bets in the 7.50pm Full Members Only

1 Further Selection in the 7.20pm

Todays Other Non-Account Selection

Wolverhampton 7.20

GARSTANG 16/1

Win Bet

( blog comment: 16/1 earlier when advised to full members best now as I type 14/1 bet365, betfred , Betfair )
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The weather has destroyed the Turf Racing today but I like Wolves tonight. GARSTANG (7.20pm) is not an account bet its just a normal selection but at 16/1 well worth a bet. The Racing Post suggest it hasnt been shaping like it was about to win but I disagree and tipped it recently when a non runner and I have seen three races its run recently that suggests to me its about to win somewhere and I think this is a big chance and only the competetiveness of the race stops me making him a Full bet.

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

WOLVERHAMPTON 7:20

GET A BONUS AT WILLIAMHILL HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 5f216y

5/1 Ryedane, Shakespeare´s Son, 6/1 All You Need, Littledodayno, 8/1 Cool Sands, 10/1 Back In The Red, Morse, 14/1 Danzig Fox, Grimes Faith, 16/1 Garstang, Hamaasy, Royal Challenge, 33/1 Sion Hill.

SELECTION – GARSTANG

This is a 0-61 handicap just short of 6f. Wolverhampton have had 31 of these races in September. I think you need an experienced horse with at least 13 runs as 29 of
the 31 winners had that (others 2-72) and I also think you need many runs this year. Horses that didnt have at least 7 runs that year had a 2-109 record. A Good recent run is important as well. You dont really want a horse thats come here off the back of a poor run. I wanted to oppose SHAKESPEARS SON who is one of only 2 that have to come from 5f. He looks underraced and I dont want a horse coming from a 3yo handicap with Topweight. I thought he had a weak profile. I am also going to oppose HAMAASY who looks underraced and has the longest absence to overcome
when the joint oldest horse. SION HILL didnt run well enough last time and neither did GRIMES FAITH. The other 5f horse BACK IN THE RED looks underraced this year and I dont want him. DANZIG FOX looks to have a weak profile as the least experienced runner. I dont want MORSE from the draw. COOL SANDS is not for me drawn in stall 1 having had just 1 runs since July. There will be a lot fitter
horses that him today. ROYAL CHALLENGE wouuldnt be my first choice. I dont want LITTLEDODAYNO whose the only filly in the race. In the 31 races here at Wolverhampton in September fillies that had 9st 6lbs or more had a bad 0-42 record . LITTLEDODAYNO won last time in a key piece of form as she beat RYEDANE half a length and ALL YOU NEED a couple of lengths over Course and Distance last week. Both RYEDANE and ALL YOU NEED are better off at the weights today. Watching the tape I think ALL YOU NEED may just be the weaker of the trio and I think RYEDANE may come out best today. However its G A R S T A N G that is my main interest in this race.

I tipped GARSTANG at Chester a couple of weeks ago when he was a Non runner. I felt at the time that his stable were in form – he was well handicapped. His sand mark has dropped 15lbs this year. GARSTANG had been catching my eye on tape recently having been running himself fit. He really caught my eye at Pontefract two runs ago in a
0-75 handicap where he badly missed the break and was repeatedly stopped in running and finished so well he was capable of far more. I fancied him at Chester but he did not run as rain came down. I swerved him last time out at Lingfield as it was a 0-80 handicap and just out of his depth but his run wasnt without promise. Two furlongs out he was in last place as he had been all race but he came late and made some ground up without being knocked about and I thought that was another encouraging run in a far better race than this contest. This is now a 0-67 contest and a big drop in class for a horse thats won over course
and distance. Not keen on the stable but he is drawn well and at his price GARSTANG should be given the chance to show he’s coming into form. Look at it this way. This is a
Class 6 race. GARSTANGS last 33 races have been in Higher Class. His record in Class 6 when not having a long absence is 8 W W W 2 W 4 2 and some of those defeats are excusable. He has to be worth a bet.

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Posted under horse racing tips