Racing At Kempton

Today’s Best Bet

KEMPTON 1.20

VIA GALILEI 7/1

My best profile horse (Wayward Prince) doesnt run
so what may have been a two bet day is reduced to a
single bet. I am relaxed about that. I probably havent
got to grips with enough races today partly down to
the weather and the cards and there is not much I like.

I do like VIA GALILEI’s chance a lot though and he’s
well worth a decent bet at 7/1 or better. I have some
negatives amongst the fancied dangers. I can not see
many horses beating him all things equal. His rating
on the Flat which has been as high as 107 demands he
must have a very lenient handicap mark over hurdles
off 116 especially when he has already won twice. He
could easily bump into something that beats him but
I can not see many dangers. He’s a good price. These
races are frightening but full of horses that can’t win
so they are never as competetive as they look. He is
interesting as he has a crucial blend of having enough
experience to win but being lightly raced enough to be
progressive and capable of improving. I cant see a bet
that I like better today. There may be something for
the cherry pickers below but I think this is one tough
Saturday. A Day to watch some high class racing and
just the one bet at a decent price to try and win well.

8/1 with VC and betfred
15/2 with Hills PaddyPower bet365 Tote
7/1 Generally elsewhere

KEMPTON 1.20

William Hill Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m

9/2 Skint, 5/1 Samsons Son, 6/1 Ski Sunday, 7/1 Via Galilei
10/1 Aather, 10/1 Babilu, 14/1 Simply Blue, 14/1 Souter Point
14/1 William Hogarth, 14/1 Zanir, 20/1 Big Robert
20/1 Johnny Mullen, 25/1 Alhaque, 25/1 Karky Schultz 50/1 Tobago Bay, 50/1 Top Mark.

This is a competetive 2m Handicap Hurdle. This race has lots of varied profiles.
I wasn’t convinced about SKINT. He comes from a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle.
There are winners that have done that but none had just 3 runs like him and
none were as young  as he is aged 5 and none had his weight. I think you have
to be careful with the horses coming from Novice Hurdles when they have a
long absence. I found only 3 winners like this in 190 of these 2m Handicaps
and None had under 7 career starts.
Those with fewer than 7 starts were 0-35. All 3 winners that won first time out from
a Novice Hurdle dropped from 2m 4f or longer and those that raced at 16f or 17f last
time were 0-37 and that puts me off some of the lighter raced Novice Hurdlers in this race.
That means SAMSONS SON and SOUTER POINT both look vulnerable and don’t have strong profiles.
TOP MARK is hard to fancy not doing enough last time.
TOBAGO BAY and ALHAQUE look outclassed.
WILLIAM HOGARTH is unsafe coming from a Novice Handicap Chase.
If you take horse with long absences that had raced13 or more times before you
find  a 1-79 record . ZANIR has that to overcome and a high weight  on his seasonal
debut and I thing thats asking too much. I dont see a strong case for KARKY SCHULTZ.
There has been some strong money for SKI SUNDAY but he doesn’t look right.
The record of seasonal debutants like him carrying 11st 3lbs or more is poor and
none were 6 year olds like him and I couldnt match him to a winner.
BIG ROBERT will probably find this too much with 3 career hurdle runs.
There are only 3 I can shortlist.

SHORTLIST

I would make BABILU a positive. She may be a mare but she
won last time and is well raced this year and with a light weight  it counts for plenty.
AATHER Looks well worth a place on the shortlist.
I respect VIA GALILEI who won a handicap first time  out this year.
I thought this trio looked best but given the choice it has to be VIA GALILEI.
What swings it for me is his rating.
This is a horse that was consistently rated over 100 on the flat having come from
Jim Bolger to Gary Moore.
He was a top class handicapper on the Flat. That makes a Hurdle rating of 116
just too lenient. It much have more ability than that. Ideally lightly raced.
Winning a good trial race last time. The horse has been handicapped after 3 runs.
Then he won a Maiden hurdle and a handicap on his last two starts and gets in
here off a very decent mark. He’s too good a horse not to fancy off 116 and
with some of main dangers statistically weak he looks well worth a bet.
It doesnt surprise me he has a Tote Gold Trophy entry.
He won’t get in that race without a couple of wins but one of them might well
come today and he would be my best bet at the meeting.

SELECTION

VIA GALILEI 7/1 Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Horse Racing At Southwell

LINGFIELD has been abandoned and with it any realistic
chance of a bet today. That leaves us with only Southwell
and a small card of 6 races and very little choice today as
the weather has beaten every other meeting on the day.

Many of you will want a bet. Many will want to leave the
day alone and get some other things done. There is not an offical
bet today.

I have looked at all 6 Southwell races for Full Members
and have one up here on the free betting blog.
I will  leave it up to you whether you want to get involved. I
dont want to bother myself especially as non runners now
seem certain to damage most of these races presumably as
many stables are having travel problems.

I dont see why I shouldnt have a good chance in the 12.30
and 1.00pm races much as these are smaller fields. The big
factor in the 1.35pm is whether I can beat the favourite so
hard to know what my chances are there. The 2.05pm has
now been reduced to 7 runners and thats typical as I’d argue
possibly my most interesting bet was JOHANNESGRAY as
an each way bet around 5/1. Thats lost now but I still think he
is as good a bet as any on the day. I like my 2.40pm bet but
so do others and the price could have been better.
The last race has got under my skin and I am far from certain
I have got that right. Both non runners were big negatives so
things have conspired against me there and I feel week here.

Those that want several bets just follow the message through to
the end with small stakes. Those wanting one bet perhaps a win
bet on JOHANNESGRAY offers the best option as he is a
reasonably good price. Those wanting a day off wont be
missing anything and I wouldnt blame you for sweving things.

SOUTHWELL 2.05

Toteswinger Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 6f

11/4 Bonnie Prince Blue, 7/2 Silaah, 5/1 Dark Lane
5/1 Everymanforhimself, 7/1 Johannesgray
12/1 Yankee Storm, 14/1 Italian Tom, 16/1 Silver Wind.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* There are 101 similar races at this time of year

ITALIAN TOM has a better profile than you might think
as a 3yo from a 5f race but the only winner winning his age
had more backclass and he has all his wins at 5f and now has
a career high mark and he looks unsafe. SILVER WIND isn’t
running well enough at the moment and does not offer me enough
considering he has no Southwell form. I would have to take on
BONNIE PRINCE BLUE. Not a big negative at
all but there are better profiles. EVERYMANFORHIMSELF
is also avoided as no similar horse came from claimers and
he has no Southwell form. That is a very weak list of horses to avoid
and that tells me despite the small field its far too  open a race to take
a confident view in.

POSSIBLES

SILAAH is hard to read as an older horse coming from a 5f
handicap a few days ago. I ran his profile carefully and found all horses
with very close profiles had a 1-4 record with that winner having much
less weight. He is hard to decide about. The issue with DARK LANE
is that he has only had 2 runs this season. To my surprise I did find a 4yo
winner like him so I’d make him a Positive much as it doesnt feel ideal and
I should mention his draw. There has been 46 handicaps here this year
and only 1 winner came from stall 1 and its not an ideal draw.
JOHANNESGRAY can’t be ruled out and I found 1 similar 3 year
old winner coming from a 5f race. There is a chance YANKEE STORM
could win this as I have found  two similar winners. He has had many
chances to win here off similar marks but has failed. His only wins here
were in two grades lower and off lower marks so he might just find one
or two better treated at the weights these days. I have 4 shortlisted and
given the choice  JOHANNESGRAY looks the best option with less
to prove and more improvement.

Selection –  JOHANNESGRAY 5/1 VC

Posted under horse racing tips

All Weather Racing Tip

Thanks for positive comments received about last weekend’s 12/1 winner hardball.

Glad to see some of you reinvesting a portion of your winnings in a membership of my private service.

This free blog carries just a tiny tiny fraction of the full member advice.

Wolverhamton 1.20
BOLODENKA 11/2  Coral William Hill vc
Win Bet

BOLODENKA is 11/2  but also the outsider in a small
4 runner race. I think he ran well last time and it did
give me some encouragement that he can win this. I
could be made to look silly as his trainer also has the
favourite today in the race. I think the favourite has
an unimpressive profile. All 4 winners have chances
in this race so no negatives at all but BOLODENKA
has been brilliant placed rated 85 and facing only a
0-74 handicap and you can go back years for the last
time he ran against such low rated horses.

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.20

£32 Free At 32Red.com Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-87) 1m141y

11/8 Bawaardi, 7/2 Justcallmehandsome
11/2 Bolodenka, 11/2 Quick Release.

The 1st thing that crossed my mind was that we had
a class horse in BOLODENKA rated 85 having had a
rating of 95 recently – Taking on a 0-74 class field.

That makes BOLODENKA look better class than
these and brilliantly placed. The flaw in the argument
is whether BOLODENKA is able to run to his mark
and there is a doubt about that. Throw in the added
complication that Richard Fahey his trainer also has
the favourite BAWAARDI in the race. Statistically
I am opposing BAWAARDI. I looked at all similar
handicaps at this time of year. Horses like him who
came from 3yo handicaps had a poor 2-56 record
and both winners had 9 + runs and he has 6 and they
also had form in Class 2 races before and he doesnt
so I think BAWAARDI is vulnerable. He has had a
recent run but no 3yo won with a recent run anyway
and I am opposing him. The issue for me is whether
BOLODENKA can beat the two other horses. Both
have ability and are capable of winning a race like
this. Neither of them have the class that He has.
He comes from one of the better Claiming races
which relaxes me a bit. I think BOLODENKA has
to be the bet as he must be in the easiest race he has
ran in for a long time.

SELECTION – BOLODENKA

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Maths on December 19, 2009

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Saturday Racing

Mathematician 429

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Newmarket 5.05

RUN FOR EDE’S   2/1

Just one selection on a Rain hit Saturday.

There is one bit of 9/4 (bet365) but RUN FOR EDE’S is 2/1 with most bookmakers.

I have done something in the Stewards Cup but have no strong view there after Goodwood has changed the ground. Other than that there are Five Previews in the message. Happy enough with these races but there is only one horse I fancy enough to make a selection and thats RUN FOR EDE’S. Not a brilliant price but she only has 6 opponents. The weather is spoling the summer at the moment and when its lashing down as it is today all we can do is keep mistakes down to a minimum and be selective. Thats why I havent had an account bet today. RUN FOR EDE’S ran really well last week on a Grade 1 track in a much better race. I dont see any of her rivals achieving that level. In a weird twist of handicapping because she’s been underrated for two recent wins and Sir Boss has been hit hard for two recent wins RUN FOR EDE’S gets quite a bit of weight from Sir Boss when really her last two runs suggest that she ought to be conceeding weight not recieving it. I think that makes her look solid. She is my only bet today and I just want to get one winner on a day the weather throws all kinds of danger at us. There will be the planned Sunday Message tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ‘ S    R A C I N G

One selection yesterday. DEAUVILLE FLYER won having
landed a big evening gamble. I suppose it all depends on what sort of price you got. He was 6/1 in plenty of places yesterday and 5/1 for most of the day but the money came in form him late and he has been returned a ridiculous 9/4. Once he was in a dule with Crocus Rose I was always confident he would stay better. Nice way to end a difficult July. Cant do any harm to the confidence and we start a Fresh month today.

Unusually a 2.30 message today on a Saturday. I know from
experience just how difficult todays cards are.
I felt my best chances came later on and with a poor weather forecast there is much more sense in sending a later message and allowing a bit more time to play some videos.

NEWMARKET 5.05

SPORTINGBET HANDICAP (CLASS 4)(4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

2/1 Run For Ede’s, 9/4 Sir Boss, 5/1 Mubrook,  10/1 Clear Reef, 16/1 Force Group, 25/1 Rowan Rio, 33/1 Coeur De Lionne.

SELECTION –  RUN FOR EDE’S

The market has chosen SIR BOSS as the favourite ahead of
RUN FOR EDE’S and I dont really see why thats justified. I
fully respect SIR BOSS as an improving 4 year old and I dont have any strong objections to him at all but he has won his last 2 races which were only 0-58 and 0-77 races and his last run in that 0-77 was only a Class 5 handicap and having been raised 11lbs by the handicapper he now finds himself topweight. His last 2 handicap wins were hardly in quality races much as he did it well. Consider the fact RUN FOR EDE’S has just also won two handicaps. They were in 0-85 and 0-77 handicaps no worse at all than SIR BOSS and RUN FOR EDE’S has also ran a very decent 4th in a Class 2 handicap. RUN FOR EDE’S was a  strong 4th in a 0-104 handicap at Ascot. It was a C2 Heritage handicap. 12 of her 15 opponents would not even be allowed to run in this race. RUN FOR EDE’S was beaten only 1.75 lengths from 4lbs out of the handicap. Whilst SIR BOSS has seen his rating jump from 68 to 74 and now 85 its highly interesting that RUN FOR EDE’S having achieved a lot more
has seen her rating only go from 70 to 74. She has only gone up 4lbs for winning two handicaps and running 4th in a 0-104 handicap. Bizzarely that means SIR BOSS has to concede 9lbs and a jockeys allowance to RUN FOR EDE’S who surely has achieved much more. RUN FOR EDE’S surely has to be better value around 3/1 notwithstanding SIR BOSS may have more improvement. I think at these weights RUN FOR EDE’S has to be the better option. I respect some of the others but she must be hard to beat. MUBROOK has a chance and he is fine  statistically as a lightly raced 4 year old. He hasnt won a race though and he wasnt handicapped instead just running on merit as a 3 year old and thats left me thinking that he may well be rated accurately and may not be thrown in off his current mark. Neither FORCE GROUP or ROWAN RIO strike me as horses about to win. CLEAR REEF is another big runner with the ground coming right but he is both exposed and coming down over 2f in distance and horses that did that didnt score that well. He is a danger though but I dont see a better option than RUN FOR EDE’S

SELECTION –  RUN FOR EDE’S

Posted under horse racing tips

Horse Racing at Thirsk

THIRSK 5.20

ToteSPORTBINGO.COM HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 6f

4/1 Hysterical Lady, 4/1 Paddy Bear, 11/2 Captain Scooby,
6/1 Blue Noodles, 6/1 Raimond Ridge, 7/1 Liberty Diamond,
10/1 Moonlight Affair, 12/1 Legal Legacy, 20/1 Bermondsey Bob.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* April and May have seen 138 similar races
* I want to oppose HYSTERICAL LADY
* She is a filly that comes from a 5f race
* In 138 races Fillies doing this were 3-197
* Those that ran in May had a 0-115 record
* Those fillies with under 5 runs were 0-42
* Those like her with 1-2-3 runs this year were 0-84
* Those like her without a run in 2 weeks were 1-128
* Those like her that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were 0-58
* Those like her with under 2 career wins were 0-152
* HYSTERICAL LADY has to be opposed
* LEGAL LEGACY isnt for me out of the weights
* Felt he had an unimpressive profile
* LIBERTY DIAMOND is a filly from a 2yo maiden
* The odd one won but they scored badly
* Fillies were 0-20 in the 4 renewals of this race
* 4 of the 138 winners were fillies from Nurseries
* None of them had under 4 runs though (0-20)
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR fails that
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR isnt top of my list
* I couldnt rule out RAIMOND RIDGE
* He is on the exposed side though with 14 runs
* He is also on a career high mark
* All his wins have come on the All Weather as well
* I would worry about fast ground for him as well
* RAIMOND RIDGE isnt for me
* BLUE NOODLES comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at horses that ran within a month doing that
* The record was 9-167
* However none came from a Class 6 handicap
* Those 1-2-3-4-5 last time in 7f handicaps were 1-66
* Those 6th or worse in 7f handicaps were 8-91
* That suggets thye following
* Better to be beaten far in a classier race
* Than to run well in a cheap race
* BLUE NOODLES misses the shortlist

STRONG PROFILES

* BERMONDSEY BOB has a reasonable profile
* I dont see anything really wrong with him
* CAPTAIN SCOOBY has a strong profile
* Placing 3rd in a much better race last time
* PADDY BEAR has just won a 3yo maiden
* The runner up has come out and won as well
* I liked his profile and he looks a big runner
* He quickened well last time out
* Last years winner came from the same maiden
* Well drawn he looks good enough to win this

SELECTION – PADDY BEAR Each Way at 100/30 betfreds jamesTote – VC

Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips