THIRSK 5.20

ToteSPORTBINGO.COM HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 6f

4/1 Hysterical Lady, 4/1 Paddy Bear, 11/2 Captain Scooby,
6/1 Blue Noodles, 6/1 Raimond Ridge, 7/1 Liberty Diamond,
10/1 Moonlight Affair, 12/1 Legal Legacy, 20/1 Bermondsey Bob.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* April and May have seen 138 similar races
* I want to oppose HYSTERICAL LADY
* She is a filly that comes from a 5f race
* In 138 races Fillies doing this were 3-197
* Those that ran in May had a 0-115 record
* Those fillies with under 5 runs were 0-42
* Those like her with 1-2-3 runs this year were 0-84
* Those like her without a run in 2 weeks were 1-128
* Those like her that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were 0-58
* Those like her with under 2 career wins were 0-152
* HYSTERICAL LADY has to be opposed
* LEGAL LEGACY isnt for me out of the weights
* Felt he had an unimpressive profile
* LIBERTY DIAMOND is a filly from a 2yo maiden
* The odd one won but they scored badly
* Fillies were 0-20 in the 4 renewals of this race
* 4 of the 138 winners were fillies from Nurseries
* None of them had under 4 runs though (0-20)
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR fails that
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR isnt top of my list
* I couldnt rule out RAIMOND RIDGE
* He is on the exposed side though with 14 runs
* He is also on a career high mark
* All his wins have come on the All Weather as well
* I would worry about fast ground for him as well
* RAIMOND RIDGE isnt for me
* BLUE NOODLES comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at horses that ran within a month doing that
* The record was 9-167
* However none came from a Class 6 handicap
* Those 1-2-3-4-5 last time in 7f handicaps were 1-66
* Those 6th or worse in 7f handicaps were 8-91
* That suggets thye following
* Better to be beaten far in a classier race
* Than to run well in a cheap race
* BLUE NOODLES misses the shortlist

STRONG PROFILES

* BERMONDSEY BOB has a reasonable profile
* I dont see anything really wrong with him
* CAPTAIN SCOOBY has a strong profile
* Placing 3rd in a much better race last time
* PADDY BEAR has just won a 3yo maiden
* The runner up has come out and won as well
* I liked his profile and he looks a big runner
* He quickened well last time out
* Last years winner came from the same maiden
* Well drawn he looks good enough to win this

SELECTION – PADDY BEAR Each Way at 100/30 betfred – s james – Tote – VC

Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

A small snippet from my main service at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk is below

Saturday November 15th

No Account Bet

One Selection Today

Cheltenham 2.00

JOE LIVELY

Each Way 6/1
blog comment: was 6/1 earlier in the day when advised to full members

best bookmaker price now 5/1in many places eg PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, betdirect, bet365

**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 2:00

SERVO SERVICES HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (4yo+) 3m3f110y

7/2 Opera Mundi, 5/1 Halcon Genelardais, 6/1 Joe Lively, 13/2 Parsons Legacy, 8/1 Beat The Boys,  Karanja, 10/1 Comply Or Die, 12/1 Simon, 14/1 Flintoff, 16/1 Dom D´Orgeval, 100/1 Sweet Diversion.

SELECTION – JOE LIVELY Each Way

This is a complicated long distance Handicap Chase over 3m 3f. Its pretty hard to read as you do not know which horses are about to have prep races like the Welsh National and don’t want penalties or weight rises. I can not have KARANJA with only 2 chase runs and he looks inexperienced as does DOM D’OGEVAL with just 6 runs. I
dont want SWEET DIVERSION as she is out of the weights. This race has never gone to a horse from a Novice Chase so BEAT THE BOYS has to go. COMPLY OR DIE the Grand National winner pulled up in this race last year with far less weight and I would imagine that winning the National and the 15lbs rise that cost him will stop him winning and
many National winners struggle to win in their next season. I can see why PARSONS LEGACY is favourite after winning well on his seasonal debut. However you can argue he is better on faster ground and that he is best fresh and a career high mark today will take some overcoming. The
2007 winner came from the Scottish Grand National just as FLINTOFF, OPERA MUNDI and HALCON GENELARDAIS all do. I dont want HALCON GENELARDAIS as he is having his first run of the year and has topweight. This could be a prep run for the Welsh National. He is on a career high mark. The only seasonal debutant that defied a big weight in this race was in 1999 (Hanakham) and he only won in a 5 runner race and was a Sun Alliance Chase winner and HALCON GENELARDAIS wouldnt be my choice today. FLINTOFF looks weak in the market and may need his seasnal debut this year.  OPERA MUNDI has big chances and has to be shortlisted. JOE LIVELY has a great chance after a strong
seasonal debut run. So to does SIMON who was 5th in this race last year. I opposed SIMON last year as he is a small horse and I wasnt convinced he would get round. He did though and came 5th on ground that was too fast for him. This year he has better ground. He also has 10lbs less weight. Whilst there is always the chance SIMON smacks one of these fences he has ran very well here in his 3 Cheltenham stats and he isnt out of this. If I was shortlisting in this race I would shortlist the following 3 horses

JOE LIVELY – OPERA MUNDI – SIMON

I had strong reasons why OPERA MUNDI lost his last two races last season and dnt worry about those runs and I do like the fact that 6 year olds have a good record in the race. Wouldnt surprise me if he won but I would have to question his stamina over 27.5 furlongs. He is a french bred and his sire has not sired a 3m + winner yet and he has not proven his stamina yet. With SIMON lacking a run this year I do think the best bet in this race has to be JOE LIVELY each way.

Posted under horse racing tips