Tuesday’s Only Bet

Beverley 2.00

WICKED WILMA 9/1 +

If you want a saver in the race I would suggest Whozart. You may remember
I went with Wicked Wilma last time but didnt make her a Full Bet as she had
a dodgy draw. She ran well just behind Whozart and I left that race convinced
she would win soon. I want to make her a selection today as I feel I can find
several reasons why her opponents will not win this. She is drawn 15 and that
could be an advantage or disadvantage. We just do not know based on evidence
at Beverley this year. If low numbers are favoured then she will struggle like
the other fancied high numbers. If high numbers are favoured we are in business.

BEVERLEY 2:00 FIONA’S SIGNIFICANT BIRTHDAY HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-50) 5f

5/1 Dubai To Barnsley, Monte Major, Myriola, 6/1 Whozart, 7/1 Mormeatmic,
10/1 Missus Molly Brown, 14/1 Gelert, 16/1 Morristown Music, Wicked Wilma,
20/1 Head To Head, Miss Taboo, 25/1 Captain Turbot, Fan Club, The Cube,
33/1 Sunley Sovereign, 50/1 Height Of Esteem

This is a 5f handicap for 0-50 rated horses. Its an outrageously hard race and it will
not be easy to get the winner but the reason I preview it is WICKED WILMA who
was my selection the other day. I almost made her an account bet but I just prefered
Superior Star that day who won thankfully and because the draw put me off her. I
am adamant that WICKED WILMA will win soon and although I initially put a Line
through this race I looked at the first few in the market and found good reasons to
oppose them all and as she is a really tasty price I decided to go with WICKED WILMA.

* September has seen 95 of these 5f handicaps since 1992
* DUBAI TO BARNSLEY comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses that came from 3yo handicaps over 5f last time were 1-65
* It’s a disadvantage taking on older horses and I want to oppose him
* MYRIOLA does the same thing and is also opposable
* She is too exposed for a 3 year old as well and I dont want her
* MONTE MAJOR is 0-20 on Grass and has no form on ground this bad
* I think he is from a fast ground sire and this may be a bit soft for him
* MORMEATIC only problems are the 35 day absence and middle draw
* On this ground I wouldnt want an absence like that
* You have to argue that whatever the draw advantage here its not stall 7
* I dont want MISSUS MOLLY BROWN a filly with 4 runs this year
* That doesnt look like a horse fit enough to win this
* Fillies with 5 + career star but under 5 runs that year were 1-103
* MORRISTOWN MUSIC has been absent 56 days and thats vile
* Since 1997 horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-111
* None of the 95 winners went 20 or more runs without a win
* HEAD TO HEAD has done that and only comes from sellers
* MISS TABOO also fails that and is a filly with a 0-22 record
* She only comes from maiden and looks very beatable
* CAPTAIN TURBOT comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses that did that with under 9 runs that year were 1-101
* Horses from 3yo handicaps that lost by 4 + lengths also struggled
* These horses had a 0-94 record and he is hard to fancy
* FAN CLUB has a 39 day breal which is certainly no advantage
* He has also never run at 5f before and that must hurt him
* HEIGHT OF ESTEEM surely cant be fit with 2 runs since August 07
* SUNLEY SOVEREIGN surely cant be fit with 1 run since September 07
* THE CUBE has a long break and has a 0-17 career record
* I think I have offered sound reasons why these horses may lose
* The race at HAMILTON 11 Days ago interests me
* WHOZART (2nd) GELERT (3rd) WICKED WILMA (6th)
* WHOZART looks to have a very solid chance in this
* GELERT must also have a chance and is respected
* Its WICKED WILMA that I like best
* She has a usefull weight pull with both Whozart and Gelert
* I think the draw hurt her last time at Hamilton
* At Beverley before that she again had the worst draw
* She was also out of the weights in a much better race than this
* She still ran really well and wasnt knocked about once beaten
* Her previous run at Catterick was also interesting
* That was in a slightly better class 0-60 contest
* She again had the worst draw but she finished really well in 4th
* The Racing Post suggested she was one to “Take out of the race”
* Have to agree with that as she finished very fast like a knife through butter
* She sould have been a fast finishing 3rd that day
* Before that at Thirsk she stumbled early losing all chance
* That left her marooned in the middle of the track
* She was away from all the advantaged horses and it was a 0-72
* She was badly drawn before that at Ayr and hampered again
* She started the season rated 66 and is now down to 49
* She would have won at Musselburgh were it not for overweight
* WICKED WILMA is a very interesting bet today

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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

This post was written by Maths on September 9, 2008

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Superior Star

Mathematician 155

Friday 29th August

1 Account Bet

Todays Account Bet

Hamilton 4.15

SUPERIOR STAR

£50 Each Way 8/1

£100 Staked on the Day

SUPERIOR STAR is 8/1 with Hills -Stan J-Betdirect – Tote
SUPERIOR STAR is 15/2 with Blue Sq -Corals -888Sport

SATURDAY

Going to change strategy tomorrow and take all the pressure
off the Saturday message. I will post trends and angles for most races on Saturday on the message board this afternoon and evening. The very best races I want to bet in I will save for the E Mail. It will probably be a 2-3-4 race message. You will be able to see every angle elsewhere on the message board or if you cant access that or don’t want you just drop me an e mail and I will send you all the other thoughts separately. I am doing this as Sunday racing has to be covered and we have 2 Friday messages so it will help to reduce the time pressure
a great deal. Shorter message planned tomorrow

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

HAMILTON 4:15 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

3/1 Wednesdays Boy, 9/2 Five Wishes, Primo Way, 5/1 Mystical Ayr, 6/1 Superior Star, 8/1 Apres Ski,
14/1 Augustus John, Middlemarch, 33/1 Sydneyroughdiamond.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over a Mile
* Hamilton have had 38 similar races at this time of year
* I watched the down in class MIDDLEMARCH on tape
* I dont think he ran well enough to bet even in this class
* He was just struggling rather than shaping like a winner
* I would oppose APRES SKI as he comes up from 6f
* Horses that did that had pretty poor records
* AUGUSTUS JOHN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just 2 runs this year and well beaten last year
* Sydneyroughdiamond looks outclassed
* I think this is between the front 5 in the betting
* FIVE WISHES and PRIMO WAY were 1st and 2nd last time
* That was in the same race and it was only a claimer
* They will be close together again and hard to split
* I Looked at Fillies coming from claimers like FIVE WISHES
* They were poor (1-50) and shes 0-9 in handicaps
* That 0-9 record was mainly from far lower handicap marks
* WEDNESDAYS BOY and MYSTICAL AYR are also respected
* They were 1st and 4th in the same 0-64 handicap at Ayr 2 runs ago
* MYSTICAL AYR has since come out and run well
* WEDENSDAYS BOY came out and won at Ayr yesterday
* That was a 0-58 but he did it well and he must go close
* Running yesterday gives him a serious advantage in my view
* All these 4 look in the right grade and have reasonable chances
* WEDENSDAYS BOY would easily be my preference of these
* I just wonder if we have not got a clever dark one here
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks well worth a bet
* SUPERIOR STAR interests me a fair bit off “57″
* He was running well off marks of 70 last year
* Richard Fahey trained him then and he is now with N Wilson
* If you think about it this horse probably hasnt been staying 10f
* He is by Superior Premium who was a sprinter
* The Dam was also a sprinter
* Superior Premium has yet to breed a 10f winner yet
* All his siblings like Baltic King -Domingues and others are sprinters
* Look at his last 9 races since November 2007
* He still managed a 3rd 3rd and 4th from 3 hurdle starts last winter
* That may have fooled people into thinking he will stay further on the flat
* I think a horse like him has little chance of staying over hurdles
* I dont think he has a prayer of staying 10f
* In Febuary he ran ok at Southwell but he wouldnt have stood out that day
* He was after all coming from Hurdles and it was only Febuary
* He did nothing wrong at Warwick in March
* His last 4 runs all had valid excuses
* You can take out his last run over 10f – he didnt stay that day
* Watched the video and he was a blatant non stayer
* Before stamina gave out he was running a blinder
* Take out that run and his 10f Beverely run as well in July
* He flopped at Thirsk and I am not sure why
* It was a rough race – he missed the break as well and was eased
* He was also badly hampered at Pontefract as well
* The racing post rate him “significantly better than the bare form”
* Back to a mile in a small field his horse must go well
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks a strong bet
* I would have to consider a “save” on WEDNESDAYS BOY
* Alternately an each way option

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips