The Derby 2013

The Derby     Epsom  4.00

I am posting up my thoughts on the Derby today
more so out of public demand than because it
is my favoured betting option today.

Full members I have actually pointed to an 8/1
shot riding at Newcastle this evening planning  to follow
on from yesterday’s NEEDY MCCREDIE 9/1 advised winner.

Returning to this afternoon however all eyes will be on The Derby

The Derby this year is about whether the best horse in
the race DAWN APPROACH stays 12f. Far too much has
been written already about this and nobody will know
until after the race. My pennys worth doesnt matter but
I do have my doubts about him staying and have been
persuaded by the arguments against him and given he
is a very short price I’d rather take something each way
against him. You can be wrong about the stamina issue
yet still come out ahead. I wasnt keen on MARS having
just one run this year in the Guineas. FESTIVE CHEER’s
the Aidan O’Brien 3rd string so not for me. CHOPIN has
not got enough positive points much as he isn’t easy to
read. LIBERTARIAN wouldn’t be first choice but that’s a
bit down to Racing snobbery. OCOVANGO needs to be
respected but he is drawn one and it will be difficult to
win from that draw. I respect RULER OF THE WORLD a
lot but I prefer his stablemate BATTLE OF MARENGO a
horse that would be Top rated were it not for the short
priced favourite. He looks the natural each way bet.

I have had to come to terms with advising a bet in
the Derby with Cheekpieces but Joseph O’Brien is
riding and has rejected the other Coolmore horses
and times and training patterns change and I can
live with it. The favourite may win but I am more
persuaded by the argument against him staying
than those that say he will. I dont think he is one
of those bet to nothings each way but BATTLE
OF MARENGO looks to me like the second best
horse and a bet each way.

Selection

BATTLE OF MARENGO

Each Way

Top bookmaker price is 7/1 bet365William Hillstan james

But consider stongly as well the Derby special offers from
victor chandler and Ladbrokes who will return as free bet cash
up to £50 and £25 respectively if Dawn Approach wins.
That is quite attractive extra insurance.

These are offers open to all customers not just new ones.
See their sites for full terms.

Current Prices
victor chandler  13/2
Ladbrokes 6/1

Best Wishes
Guy

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Racing Tip For Haydock

Haydock   5.15

A racing tip for Haydock today

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* SHOLAAN is 3 and comes down in trip
* I wanted more runs this year and couldnt match him
* He is not a negative but I see him as unsafe
* SHOLAAN could also bounce with 1 run since June
* Having a run 7 days ago  could also come too quickly
* ELUSIVITY – Not safe statistically from a Group 1 race
* KYLEAKIN LASS – Hard to see this 3yo filly winning again
* Especially as exposed as she is and up in class
* WEST COAST DREAM – Not well in and 1 run since July
* BEAU MISTRAL – Too exposed as a 3yo filly
* FACE THE PROBLEM is 4 and comes from 6f
* He is woefully short of runs this year doing that
* All 4yos doing that had at least 7 runs and he has just 4
* He has been put up 5lbs for getting beaten last time
* He’s not proven on the ground either
* LONG AWAITED – Not sure about his draw in stall 16
* Since 2007 there were 49 races at 5f here with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 14 or more had a 2-57 record
* Both those winners were drawn 16 like him
* However each race had many non runners reducing the field
* Both horses were running effectively from stall 12
* Statistically I have problems with her
* Looked at 4 year olds with Class 2 form without a recent run
* I found a weak 1-47 record and that winner wasnt unexposed
* Reluctant to ignore him as he loves soft and is very fast
* My stats say No and the Draw also undermines his chance
* STEPS – Not convinced – on a career high mark from stall 1
* Profile wise he is just a bit short of what I want
* STEPS isnt too far away though so I respect him

Shortlist

* JEDWARD – Stats say no – didnt do enough last time
* I’d keep her on side though and promote her weak profile

* CHEVETON has a much better all round profile than most
* He won this race in 2010 with 8lbs more weight

Selection

Each Way CHEVETON 13/2
bet365William Hill – VC

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on September 29, 2012

Tags: , , , , , ,

Ascot Horse Racing Tip

Ascot 3.45

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-09-08/ascot/15-45/betting/

* This is a 7f Handicap in Class 2
* Looked at all similar races at this time of year
* IMPERIAL GUEST won last time out
* All the winners that won having done that were younger
* No 6yo followed up a win so not convinced
* I looked at 3 year olds in these races
* Those that had Group Class form were 0-59
* ARNOLD LANE fails that
* BANNOCK also fails that
* CASTLES IN THE AIR I see as underraced this year
* EXCELLENT GUEST is also technically underraced as well
* Both of those exposed types would be better with 1-2 more runs
* Horses from Listed races had a 0-43 record
* SIRIUS PROSPECT fails that and has plenty to prove
* SMARTY SOCKS also fails that and is an 8yo
* Horses aged 8 or more struggle in these races
* SMARTY SOCKS did win this with more weight last year
* Because of that I would see him as more positive than negative
* PRIMAEVAL is riSky with a 78 day absence
* No horses with 13 + career starts won absent 7 + weeks
* GLOBAL VILLAGE also fails that
* FIELD OF DREAM – I’d like more recent encouragement
* BERTIEWHITTLE looks the one to me
* I looked at exposed 4 year olds
* Coming from a 7f Handicap
* Form in Class 2 before
* Running within 2 weeks
* Beaten under 3 lengths last time
* Similar horses had a 2-7 record in these races
* That included the 2002 winner of this race

Selection

BERTIEWHITTLE Each Way at 9/1
bet365victor chandlerWilliam Hillbetfred

 

 

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Ayr Gold Cup

S a t u r d a y   A y r   3.20

By popular demand the race I am looking at here today for
the free blog is the Ayr Gold Cup.

I feel I have something a bit stronger in the 3.55 at Ayr
but that is for full members of my paid service.
Quite rightly they moan if I post too much up here for free.

A few of you have asked about my thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup
so here they are.

It is a huge runner field and I wont be investing heavily myself but
if you forced a tenner into my hand and told me to bet it this is why I would do.

William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1993
* There has been 77 Similar handicaps elsewhere

* Horses aged 7 or more struggled
* None were absent as long as TAJNEED
* None were absent as long as EVENS AND ODDS
* REGAL PARADE doesnt come out well aged 7
* Not without a recent run and from Listed Class
* ANCIENT CROSS is an exposed 7yo from 6f
* He has just Class 2 Form similar horses were 1-59
* ANCIENT CROSS has more weight than that winner
* Those like him running within 2 weeks are 0-36
* ANCIENT CROSS isnt as good a fit as I want
* MAYSON shouldnt win this aged 3 with 1 run this year
* Fillies aged 3 need at least 6 runs that season
* DARAJAAT fails that with 4 runs
* MAJESTIC MYLES looks the wrong type of 3yo
* Those down in trip with 9 + runs struggled
* None had anything like his weight and I cant match him
* In 77 races no exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* Those that tried had a 0-66 record
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected
* LIGHT FROM MARS fails that and is rejected
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails that and is rejected
* Exposed horses absent over a Month were 3-175
* None have won this race
* None were aged 4 like PEPPER LANE
* None were fillies like PEPPER LANE
* GROUP THERAPY – Wrong as exposed 6yo from 5f
* ANNE OF KIEV is a mare and fails the same statistic
* BREATHLESS KISS is wrong as an exposed filly from 5f
* I looked at Exposed horses from 7f races
* Those aged 6 or more were just 1-60
* Those without a run in the last week were 0-56
* CASTLES IN THE AIR fails that and has a bad draw
* BRAVE PROSPECTOR fails that from 7f
* HIGH STANDING also looks wrong doing this
* There were 13 winners coming from 7f
* None had just 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* ETON RIFLES fails that
* Those aged 6 or more like him needed 8 + runs that year
* ETON RIFLES falls short for me
* MAC4S POWER is exposed and from a 6f Listed race
* Horses with this profile had a 1-28 record
* That was the 1996 winner of this Royale Figurine
* She was a 4yo filly and had 6 runs this year
* MAC4S POWER is an older 5yo and a Male
* MAC4S POWER – Can’t match him as well as I’d like
* He has a tough handicap mark on ground not ideal
* SON OF THE CAT has the same profile
* He is exposed aged 5 from a Listed race
* SON OF THE CAT has a tough handicap mark
* BELOW ZERO is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* Similar horses had a 1-31 record in 77 races
* That winner had less weight than he does
* Recently punished by the handicapper he is unsafe
* OUR JONATHAN is 4 and comes from a 6f handicap
* He has a Months absence as well
* I found 2 winners that had that profile
* Both winners had 8st 8lbs or less
* OUR JONATHAN has 9st 6lbs
* I see him borderline shortlistable but the weights a worry
* The Handicapper does look in charge
* WAFFLE is an unexposed 5yo from a 6f handicap
* He has a recent race beaten about 6 lengths
* The 2000 winner of this race shared that profile
* That winner did have 20lbs less weight though
* I Dont see WAFFLE as well treated
* Having 1 career win drags his numbers down as well
* Borderline shortlistable he is respected but unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* CROISULTAN is very hard to read
* Irish horse that comes from a Group race 7 days ago
* He looks short of runs this year for an exposed 5yo
* Coming from Group 3 races is not the norm either
* In His favour is strong recent form
* I would see him more as a Neutral profile
* He is unorthodox and not statistically strong
* I shouldnt impose English stats on Irish horses though
* CROISULTAN is respected but very hard to read

* DUNGANNON is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* Similar horses running within a month did win 2 races
* There is a Silver Cup winner like him
* No Gold Cup winner but DUNGANNON is shortlistable

* PASTORAL PLAYER is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* He runs within 2 weeks and has 5-6-7 runs this season
* In 77 races there were 2 horses with that profile
* These finished 1st and 6th
* PASTORAL PLAYER is very shortlistable

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 4 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 1-4 record
* The winner was the 2005 winner of this race (Presto Shinko)
* COLONEL MAK won the Silver Cup last year as a 3yo
* That shows me he has a good chance in this years race
* COLONEL MAK is shortlisted

Summary

CROISULTAN – Hard to read. Neutral profile
DUNGANNON – Almost right and respected
PASTORAL PLAYER – Like his profile
COLONEL MAK – Decent chance

Final Selection

Split Stake Bet

CROISULTAN  16/1 s james
COLONEL MAK 16/1 s james

Full live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-17/ayr/15-20/betting/

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

Newmarket Free Racing Tip

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

I am glad to see a few of you registered here on the blog bothered to
add a few comments of thanks.

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral bet365 William Hill

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips