Mathematician 285

Blog Selection

Lingfield 3.35

INTERNATIONALDEBUT

Each Way Single BEst Price 10/1 William Hill , Ladbrokes, Coral

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On the Service for Full Members of mathematician-betting there are seven previews
today with 5 at Lingfield and 2 at Wolves.
The 1.20 at Lingfield is a novelty selection
so lets ignore that to start with. That leaves 6 previews.
It sounds far too ambitious to say this – especially as its
Lingfield and its a Saturday but the remaining 6 previews
have produced 6 very strong selections. I feel that I have
Nailed it today and I fancy all 6 very strongly. I think it
is that good a message. Realism tells me I have no hope
of getting 6 winners in 6 races but I dont see where my
weak link are and I wouldnt have a problem at all with
making any of the 6 selections and had the prices been
better in a few cases even account bets were possible in
many of these races. This makes picking the right ones
today for the top of the message a nightmare.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Yesterday we had no business and just side stepped a pretty
limited day that didnt offer anything. Hope thats put me in
the right frame of mind for a much busier day today. With
all the inspections and marginal decisions about what is on
and whats off I decided to concentrate mainly on the sand.
Its a Number Cruching Blockbuster at Lingfield and Wolves
and whilst maximum respect is given both tracks I have had
a good crack at both meetings and hope for a good day.

For the free blog I am lookign at just one race at Lingfield.

LINGFIELD 3.35

WIILIAM HILL TOP TEAM FOOTBALL
PRICES HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2f

9/2 Lady Jane Digby, 5/1 Baylini, 11/2 Philatelist,
8/1 Ace Of Hearts, 8/1 Formation, 8/1 Internationaldebut,
14/1 John Terry, 16/1 Al Muheer 33/1 Prairie Spirit.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-100
* We have had about 64 similar races run before
* PRAIRIE SPIRIT looks unfit to win a race like this
* ACE OF HEARTS is a 10 year old
* None of the 64 winners were that old
* He also has to step up from a Mile
* No horse aged 8 or more managed that
* He also has just 1 run since October
* He isnt well treated for his age and hasnt won at 10f before
* I dont see ACE OF HEARTS as a good bet here
* AL MUHEER has only ever won a maiden
* That instantly made him badly handicapped
* All 14 races since he has lost and is only 5lbs lower
* He has never done the trip before
* It will need to improve him a lot to win a 0-100
* That said AL MUHEER might find that improvement
* He is a fair price at 14/1 and has an outside chance
* JOHN TERRY looks more of a 12f horse
* He has a chance but I have to prefer others
* The race 14 days ago at Lingfield could be important
* FORMATION won that race at 11/1
* LADY JANE DIGBY was 2nd and BAYLINI 3rd
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT was back in 4th
* Less than 2 lengths seperated all 4 runners
* FORMATION won that race 14 days ago
* He had previously been beaten in a claimer
* I think the race was run to suit him last time
* I wouldnt be confident he would beat them all again
* His draw in stall 2 could be an issue
* The last 13 handicaps here with 8 or more runners
* None went to horses drawn in stall 1 or 2
* Only 1 went to a horse drawn 3 as well
* Higher drawn horses have had the edge recently
* This puts me off FORMATION and CONFIDENTIALITY
* I dont want to shortlist FORMATION
* LADY JANE DIGBY is another filly
* Fillies that came from handicaps were 1-45
* They dont score well but you have to respect her
* She’s in form – unexposed and has run in the class before
* LADY JANE DIGBY is respected and shortlisted
* BAYLINI has a chance but does have a bit to prove
* He hasnt yet won from his mark or in the class before
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT is a big runner for me
* He has won from marks of 87 and 92
* Today he has a mark of 95 but that doesnt worry me
* His last 3 runs all had excuses from marks of 99
* Three runs ago he dropped from 8f to 6f a big problem
* I didnt fancy him that day and he duly lost
* Two runs ago he moved up to 7f
* He had a 0-50 stat to overcome that day and lost
* That was no surprise as it was also his Southwell debut
* He ran in the race 14 days ago behind Formation
* He was a fast finishing 4th that day but he may improve
* That day he was up from 7f to 10f
* That had to have inconvenienced him
* Now conditioned at 10f he looks a big runner
* PHILATELIST is respected and has a chance
* He is slowly getting fit now
* Not the best handicapped horse in the race but all class
* PHILATELIST has to be respected but not for me

SHORTLIST

INTERNATIONALDEBUT
LADY JANE DIGBY

SELECTION – Its a wide open race but I feel I have made
a reasonable case for INTERNATIONALDEBUT and he is my main fancy in the race.
I think his last run has been criminally ignored. He was inches behind 3 of these when
having a 3f step up in trip which disadvantaged him. I feel
10f here must be in his range lookingat his form especially
here. If they got off hard he might be suited to a come from behind run and if there
is no pace he has a turn of foot. I see him coming fast and late and whilst this is not easy
and he does have a bit to prove like many others he looks the forgotten horse and a really big price around 10/1

SELECTION – INTERNATIONAL DEBUT  EACH WAY at 10/1

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 162

Saturday 6th September

2 Account Bets in the 7.50pm Full Members Only

1 Further Selection in the 7.20pm

Todays Other Non-Account Selection

Wolverhampton 7.20

GARSTANG 16/1

Win Bet

( blog comment: 16/1 earlier when advised to full members best now as I type 14/1 bet365, betfred , Betfair )
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The weather has destroyed the Turf Racing today but I like Wolves tonight. GARSTANG (7.20pm) is not an account bet its just a normal selection but at 16/1 well worth a bet. The Racing Post suggest it hasnt been shaping like it was about to win but I disagree and tipped it recently when a non runner and I have seen three races its run recently that suggests to me its about to win somewhere and I think this is a big chance and only the competetiveness of the race stops me making him a Full bet.

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

WOLVERHAMPTON 7:20

GET A BONUS AT WILLIAMHILL HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 5f216y

5/1 Ryedane, Shakespeare´s Son, 6/1 All You Need, Littledodayno, 8/1 Cool Sands, 10/1 Back In The Red, Morse, 14/1 Danzig Fox, Grimes Faith, 16/1 Garstang, Hamaasy, Royal Challenge, 33/1 Sion Hill.

SELECTION – GARSTANG

This is a 0-61 handicap just short of 6f. Wolverhampton have had 31 of these races in September. I think you need an experienced horse with at least 13 runs as 29 of
the 31 winners had that (others 2-72) and I also think you need many runs this year. Horses that didnt have at least 7 runs that year had a 2-109 record. A Good recent run is important as well. You dont really want a horse thats come here off the back of a poor run. I wanted to oppose SHAKESPEARS SON who is one of only 2 that have to come from 5f. He looks underraced and I dont want a horse coming from a 3yo handicap with Topweight. I thought he had a weak profile. I am also going to oppose HAMAASY who looks underraced and has the longest absence to overcome
when the joint oldest horse. SION HILL didnt run well enough last time and neither did GRIMES FAITH. The other 5f horse BACK IN THE RED looks underraced this year and I dont want him. DANZIG FOX looks to have a weak profile as the least experienced runner. I dont want MORSE from the draw. COOL SANDS is not for me drawn in stall 1 having had just 1 runs since July. There will be a lot fitter
horses that him today. ROYAL CHALLENGE wouuldnt be my first choice. I dont want LITTLEDODAYNO whose the only filly in the race. In the 31 races here at Wolverhampton in September fillies that had 9st 6lbs or more had a bad 0-42 record . LITTLEDODAYNO won last time in a key piece of form as she beat RYEDANE half a length and ALL YOU NEED a couple of lengths over Course and Distance last week. Both RYEDANE and ALL YOU NEED are better off at the weights today. Watching the tape I think ALL YOU NEED may just be the weaker of the trio and I think RYEDANE may come out best today. However its G A R S T A N G that is my main interest in this race.

I tipped GARSTANG at Chester a couple of weeks ago when he was a Non runner. I felt at the time that his stable were in form – he was well handicapped. His sand mark has dropped 15lbs this year. GARSTANG had been catching my eye on tape recently having been running himself fit. He really caught my eye at Pontefract two runs ago in a
0-75 handicap where he badly missed the break and was repeatedly stopped in running and finished so well he was capable of far more. I fancied him at Chester but he did not run as rain came down. I swerved him last time out at Lingfield as it was a 0-80 handicap and just out of his depth but his run wasnt without promise. Two furlongs out he was in last place as he had been all race but he came late and made some ground up without being knocked about and I thought that was another encouraging run in a far better race than this contest. This is now a 0-67 contest and a big drop in class for a horse thats won over course
and distance. Not keen on the stable but he is drawn well and at his price GARSTANG should be given the chance to show he’s coming into form. Look at it this way. This is a
Class 6 race. GARSTANGS last 33 races have been in Higher Class. His record in Class 6 when not having a long absence is 8 W W W 2 W 4 2 and some of those defeats are excusable. He has to be worth a bet.

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Posted under horse racing tips